/pdf/ecosystems-their-properties-goods-and-services-s3a98obedp.pdf

Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services

Technological advances have enabled a new class of multivariate models for ecology, with the potential now to specify a statistical model for abundances jointly across many taxa, to simultaneously explore interactions across taxa and the response of abundance to environmental variables. Joint models can be used for several purposes of interest to ecologists, including estimating patterns of residual correlation across taxa, ordination, multivariate inference about environmental effects and environment-by-trait interactions, accounting for missing predictors, and improving predictions in situations where one can leverage knowledge of some species to predict others. We demonstrate this by example and discuss recent computation tools and future directions.

So Many Variables: Joint Modeling in Community Ecology.

https://www.wsl.ch/staff/niklaus.zimmermann/papers/JEnvManage_Lindner_2014.pdf

Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65 000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS) – part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network – predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account.

/pdf/survival-of-norway-spruce-remains-higher-in-mixed-stands-2wv0iitizc.pdf

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

1. This study investigated the factors underlying the variability of needle and soil elemental composition and stoichiometry and their relationships with growth in Pinus sylvestris forests throughout the species' distribution in Europe by analyzing data from 2245 forest stands. 2. Needle N concentrations and N:P ratios were positively correlated with total atmospheric N deposition, whereas needle P concentrations were negatively correlated. These relationships were especially pronounced at sites where high levels of N deposition coincided with both higher mean annual temperature and higher mean annual precipitation. Trends toward foliar P deficiency were thus more marked when high N deposition coincided with climatic conditions favorable to plant production. 3. Atmospheric N deposition was positively correlated with soil-solution NO3-, SO42-, K+, P, and Ca2+ concentrations, the soil-solution NO3-:P ratio, total soil N, and the total soil N:Olsen P ratio, and negatively correlated with soil Olsen P concentration. 4. Despite these nutrient imbalances, during the period studied (1990-2006), N deposition was positively related with Pinus sylvestris absolute basal diameter (BD) growth, although only accounting for the 10% of the total variance. However, neither N deposition nor needle N concentration were related with relative annual BD growth. In contrast, needle P concentration was positively related with both absolute and relative annual BD growth. 5. These results thus indicate a tendency of European P. sylvestris forests to store N in trees and soil in response to N deposition and unveil a trend toward increased nutrient losses in runoff as a consequence of higher soil-solution N concentrations. Overall, the data show increasing ecosystem nutrient imbalances with increasingly limiting roles of P and other nutrients such as K in European P. sylvestris forests, especially in the center of their distribution where higher levels of N deposition are observed. Thus, although the data show that N deposition has had an overall positive effect on P. sylvestris growth, the effect of continuous N deposition, associated with decreasing P and K and increasing N:P in leaves and in soil, may in the future become detrimental for the growth and competitive ability of P. Sylvestris trees.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1365-2435.12541

Foliar and soil concentrations and stoichiometry of nitrogen and phosphorous across European Pinus sylvestris forests: relationships with climate, N deposition and tree growth

The condition of forests in Europe. 2011 executive report

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The condition of forests in Europe. 2011 executive report