The risk of natural disasters has increased over the last few decades, leading to significant economic losses across the globe. In response, research related to the risk of economic loss due to natural disasters has continued to develop. At present, insurance remains the best solution for funding such losses. The purpose of this study is to analyse the development of insurance as an alternative for sustainable economic recovery after natural disasters. The data used are articles obtained from several sources indexed by Scopus and Google Scholar. The search resulted in a final database of 266 articles, culled from a total of 813 articles before the final selection was made. The articles used are publications from 2000–2021 (including 21 database periods), to which we applied a systematic literature review method. Identification and evaluation of the articles was carried out through visualization of their content, development of disaster risk insurance, and availability of disaster risk insurance by country and type. The identification results show that the relationship between the word “insurance”, according to visualization using the VOSviewer software, has a relationship with other clusters including the words “disaster”, “disaster insurance”, “risk”, “natural disaster”, “study”, “recovery”, and “disaster risk financing”. The 266 articles studied show that there was an annual increase in the number of published scientific papers over the period 2000–2021. The types of disaster risk insurance, based on a review of the articles, include agricultural insurance, flood insurance, property insurance, earthquake insurance, crop insurance, and natural disaster insurance. In addition, of the six types of disaster risk insurance, three have been discussed the most in the last five years, namely, agricultural, flood, and property insurance. The increase in the number of scientific publications discussing these three types of disaster risk insurance has been influenced by climate change. Climate change causes a significant increase in the potential for disasters and is accompanied by an increased risk of loss. This review is expected to provide information and motivation for researchers related to the development and importance of disaster risk insurance research. Research in the risk sector for disaster losses due to climate change should be continued in the future in order to help fund economic recovery, especially throughout the insurance sector. With continuous research on disaster risk insurance, it is hoped that the resulting information can be more effective in determining insurance risk and in helping local economies and communities recover after the advent of a disaster. With the availability of funds for post-disaster recovery, the regional economy affected by the disaster can be immediately restored and recovered from adversity.

/pdf/insurance-as-an-alternative-for-sustainable-economic-3uubi2l7.pdf

Insurance as an Alternative for Sustainable Economic Recovery after Natural Disasters: A Systematic Literature Review

Flooding is Ghana's most occurrent natural disaster, with Accra, the capital city and central economic hub experiencing the highest flood incidence and the effects on lives and properties. With the increasing trend of data on rainfall above 20 mm (heavy rain) in Accra from 1980 to 2020, a high possibility of future flood hazards has been projected, with the frequency and intensity of flood occurrences expected to increase. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the flood disaster risk perception of urban households in Accra and how it influences their willingness to leave the flood-prone zone. The multinomial probit model was used to analyze the evacuation willingness of households, and binary logit and probit models were also used to test the robustness of the estimates. The results indicate that the odds of being flood risk lovers are found to be decreased by the number of years of formal education, gender, household level of income, physical mobility, costs incurred from previous floods, probability and severity of future floods, and perception about taxing building in flood zones. The odds of being flood risk lovers are increased by household duration in the flood zone, size of household, the experience of past flood occurrences, close distance to work, and residence close to Odaw river/Korle lagoon. The study suggests that policies should target increasing public awareness of flood risks, providing affordable housing for residents, banning new settlements on flood-prone zones, and building infrastructure to mitigate flood risks. 

Flood disaster risk perception and evacuation willingness of urban households: The case of Accra, Ghana

Geospatial modelling of floods: a literature review

Leptospirosis is an infectious zoonotic disease of special importance in tropical regions of the world and is closely related to climatic conditions. In Mexico, at least eight Leptospira serogroups are known to affect sheep, but little is known about their distribution. The aim was to analyze the spatial distribution of seroreactive sheep to eight serogroups of Leptospira spp. through ecological niche modeling from the state of Veracruz. We carried out a cross-sectional, multi-stage, and stratified epidemiological study, sampling 405 sheep in different regions of the state (north, center, and south). The sera were analyzed using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) to identify seropositivity to eight Leptospira serogroups (Icterohaemorrhagiae, Pyrogenes, Grippotyphosa, Canicola, Pomona, Hardjo, Wolffi, and Tarassovi). Management variables in the sampled herds were evaluated through a survey among the producers, which was analyzed using the Chi-square test for cross-tabulation. Geospatial modeling was conducted using MAXENT and 19 climatic variables and the validation was carried out using the area under the curve (AUC). No positive animals were found for Pomona in any area of Veracruz and there was only one case of seroreactivity to Grippotyphosa. The total seroprevalence found was 53.83% (95% CI: 48.84-58.75). The main serogroup found was Sejroe (55.31%, 95% CI 50.32 - 60.20%), followed by Canicola (8.64%, 95% CI 6.17 - 11.92%), Icterohaemorrhagiae (4.69%, 95% CI 2.93 - 7.36%), Tarassovi (3.95%, 95% CI 2.35 - 6.47%), Pyrogenes (2.47%, 95% CI 1.26 - 4.64%), Australis (0.99%, 95% CI 0.32 - 2.69%) and Grippotyphosa (0.25%, 95% CI 0.01 - 1.59%). The predictive model for Australis was not significant. Acceptable predictive models (AUC>0.7-0.8) were found for Canicola, Icterohaemorrhagiae, Pyrogenes, and Tarassovi; while for Sejroe it was excellent (AUC> 0.85); consequently, the climatic variables that most contributed to the model were those related to precipitation. The potential distribution of Pyrogenes, Icterohaemorrhagiae, and Canicola was located to a greater extent in the three regions; Pyrogenes and Tarassovi were distributed mostly in the north and central regions and Sejroe is mostly located in the center and south of the state. Ecological niche modeling could support epidemiological control and surveillance programs for affected sheep herds in the state of Veracruz. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution models of seroreactive sheep to Leptospira spp. in Veracruz, Mexico.

Abstract: Floods can be defined as one of the most frequent and destructive disasters, that cause significant damage to people, while droughts present significant challenges in first place to most vulnerable communities. In consequence, state public policies are essential to manage the risk in the face of both phenomena and contribute to the construction of resilient communities. As a request of the National Water Commission of Mexico (CONAGUA) for the Regional Water Plan (PHR), we designed and applied a methodology based on virtual consultation fora in conjunction with digital survey tools to understand the population's perception of these phenomena. The workshops were organized in the five municipalities of Baja California Sur. Then, we performed an interdisciplinary analysis that combines hydrological considerations with the most critical social, economic, environmental, and law components, applying the PESTEL analysis. The results indicate that there is a clear and widespread awareness that floods and droughts increase the risk to the livelihoods of the population; however, there are deficiencies in different areas, which complicates risk management. Timely information and the inclusion of communities in mitigation and adaptation proposals would allow for achieving more successful cases with the efforts to minimize vulnerabilities and increase the resilience of the population in the face of a changing climate. This must be a collaborative work of the entire society, governmental, social, and private stakeholders. 

Participative Policy Design to Manage Droughts and Floods in an Arid Region under Climate Change Uncertainty: The Case of Baja California Sur, Mexico

Urban floods have adverse effects on the population and the economy, and they are increasing in frequency and magnitude. The State of Veracruz is the region of Mexico with the highest number of disasters, more than 50% of the total number nationwide, in the 1970–2015 period. During the 1990s, disasters in this region increased from 5 to 10 events per year, mostly in relation to intense rains and floods. This study analyzes the factors that increase the risk of urban floods in the regions: (i) the Panuco River, (ii) the Papaloapan River, and (iii) the Coatzacoalcos River regions, combining hazard data and estimates of vulnerability factors. The 95th percentile of daily precipitation (P95) is used as a threshold of heavy rain, i.e., the natural hazard. Vulnerability is estimated in terms of the percentage of natural vegetation loss due to changes in land cover and land use in the hydrological basins and the expansion of the urban areas in the regions under study. The risk of flood was compared with records of flood events focusing on the low-frequency variations of risks and disaster activity. The trends in urban flood activity are related to the loss of natural vegetation and deterioration of the basins leading to a loss of infiltration, i.e., larger runoffs. Even when the intensity of precipitation in recent decades remains without clear trends, or shows negative tendencies in the number of intense events, the number of floods is higher mostly because of the deterioration of hydrologic basins. Therefore, the risk of flooding in the state of Veracruz is mainly related to environmental factors that result in vulnerability rather than changes in the trends of extreme precipitation activity. This result means that disaster risk reduction actions should be mainly related to rehabilitation of the basins.

Effect of Urban Development in Risk of Floods in Veracruz, Mexico

Due to their frequency and magnitude, urban floods affect different regions of the world. For this reason, several methodologies integrate information on hazard (H) and vulnerability (V) using a "Classic" Risk (R) model for risk analysis. However, this combination of variables generally overestimates the risk in places where the frequency of flooding is low. In this work we propose a model that we call Adjusted Risk (AR) that integrates values ​​of urban proximity (p) to bodies of water, as a tool to assess the risk of floods. The comparison between the R and AR models showed a higher efficiency of AR to reproduce the frequency of floods for 210 cities in Veracruz, while R overestimated the level of risk in cities with low frequency of floods. The correlation values ​​associated with the frequency of flood events for a period of 45 years (1970-2015), allow to establish the utility of the AR model to evaluate the risk of urban floods when using different scales of analysis.

http://novascientia.delasalle.edu.mx/ojs/index.php/Nova/article/download/2956/1218

A new model to analyze urban flood risk. Case study: Veracruz, Mexico

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Effect of Urban Development in Risk of Floods in Veracruz, Mexico

A new model to analyze urban flood risk. Case study: Veracruz, Mexico