Infrastructure resilience curves: Performance measures and summary metrics

Disasters often indirectly cause two impacts that may impede recovery: a decline in the capacity of a system because of failures in its supporting components and a surge in demand for the s...

Capacity Building for an Infrastructure System in Case of Disaster Using the System's Associated Social and Technical Components

Macular Telangiectasia type 2 (MacTel) is an uncommon bilateral retinal disease, in which glial cell and photoreceptor degeneration leads to central vision loss. The causative disease mechanism is largely unknown, and no treatment is currently available. A previous study found variants in genes associated with glycine-serine metabolism (PSPH, PHGDH and CPS1) to be associated with MacTel, and showed low levels of glycine and serine in the serum of MacTel patients. Recently, a causative role of deoxysphingolipids in MacTel disease has been established. However, little is known about possible other metabolic dysregulation. Here we used a global metabolomics platform in a case-control study to comprehensively profile serum from 60 MacTel patients and 58 controls. Analysis of the data, using innovative computational approaches, revealed a detailed, disease-associated metabolic profile with broad changes in multiple metabolic pathways. This included alterations in the levels of several metabolites that are directly or indirectly linked to glycine-serine metabolism, further validating our previous genetic findings. We also found changes unrelated to PSPH, PHGDH and CPS1 activity. Most pronounced, levels of several lipid groups were altered, with increased phosphatidylethanolamines being the most affected lipid group. Assessing correlations between different metabolites across our samples revealed putative functional connections. Correlations between phosphatidylethanolamines and sphingomyelin, and glycine-serine and sphingomyelin, observed in controls, were reduced in MacTel patients, suggesting metabolic re-wiring of sphingomyelin metabolism in MacTel patients. Our findings provide novel insights into metabolic changes associated with MacTel and implicate altered lipid metabolism as a contributor to this retinal neurodegenerative disease.

/pdf/systemic-lipid-dysregulation-is-a-risk-factor-for-macular-4rrh8q6j84.pdf

Systemic lipid dysregulation is a risk factor for macular neurodegenerative disease.

Conventional risk factors for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes such as obesity do not completely explain the higher prevalence of prediabetes; therefore, research to investigate the role of other independent risk factors is required. A few cross-sectional studies have reported an association between muscle strength and prediabetes among normal-weight adults, but the longitudinal relationship of muscle strength with incident prediabetes among adults has not been reported. This prospective cohort study was conducted to investigate whether relative handgrip strength in adults predicted prediabetes incidence after 2 years of follow-up. The study was conducted in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan and recruited individuals without prediabetes and diabetes attending lifestyle related medical examinations between April 2016 and March 2017 (n = 2054). Individuals who came for the follow-up medical examinations between April 2018 and March 2019 were included in the analysis (n = 1075). One hundred sixty-nine individuals (15.7%) developed prediabetes after a mean follow-up of 24.2 months (SD = 1.9 months). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of new prediabetes cases were calculated using Cox regression. Higher baseline relative handgrip strength predicted a lower risk (aHR [95% CI] = 0.38 [0.21–0.71] of prediabetes incidence among adults. Importantly, relative handgrip strength predicted new prediabetes cases among normal weight individuals (aHR [95% CI] = 0.39 [0.16–0.96]). The findings suggest that handgrip strength measurement is useful to identify individuals at high risk of newly diagnosed prediabetes, importantly, among normal weight individuals. The identified individuals may benefit from early intervention to reduce the risk of prediabetes.

Handgrip strength predicts new prediabetes cases among adults: A prospective cohort study

Empirical research with electricity transmission networks reliability data shows that the size of major failures - in terms of energy not supplied (ENS), total loss of power (TLP) or restoration time (RT) - appear to follow a power law behaviour in the upper tail of the distribution. However, this pattern - also known as Pareto distribution - is not valid in the whole range of those major events. We aimed to find a probability distribution that we could use to model them, and hypothesized that there is a two-parameter model that fits the pattern of those data well in the entire domain. We considered the major failures produced between 2002 and 2009 in the European power grid; analyzed those reliability indicators: ENS, TLP and RT; fitted six alternative models: Pareto II, Fisk, Lognormal, Pareto, Weibull and Gamma distributions, to the data by maximum likelihood; compared these models by the Bayesian information criterion; tested the goodness-of-fit of those models by a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test method based on bootstrap resampling; and validated them graphically by rank-size plots. We found that Pareto II distribution is, in the case of ENS and TLP, an adequate model to describe major events reliability data of power grids in the whole range, and in the case of RT, is the best choice of the six alternative models analyzed.

Modelling major failures in power grids in the whole range

This paper proposes an optimization model, using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP), to support decisions related to making investments in the design of power grids serving industrial clients that experience interruptions to their energy supply due to disruptive events. In this approach, by considering the probabilities of the occurrence of a set of such disruptive events, the model is used to minimize the overall expected cost by determining an optimal strategy involving pre- and post-event actions. The pre-event actions, which are considered during the design phase, evaluate the resilience capacity (absorption, adaptation and restoration) and are tailored to the context of industrial clients dependent on a power grid. Four cases are analysed to explore the results of different probabilities of the occurrence of disruptions. Moreover, two scenarios, in which the probability of occurrence is lowest but the consequences are most serious, are selected to illustrate the model’s applicability. The results indicate that investments in pre-event actions, if implemented, can enhance the resilience of power grids serving industrial clients because the impacts of disruptions either are experienced only for a short time period or are completely avoided.

/pdf/embedding-resilience-in-the-design-of-the-electricity-supply-4n9ojfxmkm.pdf

Embedding resilience in the design of the electricity supply for industrial clients.

Electric Power Distribution systems (EPDS) are defined as Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems as they provide services fundamental to the economy and routine of society, supporting the operation of other systems. Given EPDSs complex infrastructure and increasing exposure to natural hazards, such as extreme weather events, earthquakes, floods and wildfires, there is a growing interest on the evaluation of power grid resilience enhancement. In this context, this paper proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP), with the aim to determine which EPDSs’ resilience enhancement strategies should be adopted in order to minimize cost, considering a potentially extreme set of disturbances. An application example was conducted, considering an EPDS for industrial clients. Results point towards resilience potential to minimize power interruptions and reduce total expected additional costs, although proving that it is economically unfeasible to ensure total demand supply given the occurrence of disruptions in normal operation. Therefore, an analysis of different service level goals was conducted in order to compare the advised strategies for each case.

/pdf/minimization-of-costs-associated-with-power-supply-2bhov2vbku.pdf

Minimization of costs associated with power supply disruptions by building resilience in Electric Power Distribution Systems

Smart Grids Optimization: Demands and Techniques

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Embedding resilience in the design of the electricity supply for industrial clients.

Minimization of costs associated with power supply disruptions by building resilience in Electric Power Distribution Systems

Smart Grids Optimization: Demands and Techniques