From the Publisher:
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete andaccessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertaintyand offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognitionin short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information.
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.

Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference

http://dekleer.org/Publications/Diagnosing%20Multiple%20Faults%20AIJ%20reprint.pdf

Diagnosing multiple faults

The role of fuzzy logic in the management of uncertainty in expert systems

Pathfinder is an expert system that assists surgical pathologists with the diagnosis of lymph-node diseases. The program is one of a growing number of normative expert systems that use probability and decision theory to acquire, represent, manipulate, and explain uncertain medical knowledge. In this article, we describe Pathfinder and our research in uncertain-reasoning paradigms that was stimulated by the development of the program. We discuss limitations with early decision-theoretic methods for reasoning under uncertainty and our initial attempts to use non-decision-theoretic methods. Then, we describe experimental and theoretical results that directed us to return to reasoning methods based in probability and decision theory.

Toward normative expert systems: Part I. The Pathfinder project.

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/dt.pdf

Decision theory in expert systems and artificial intelligence

A knowledge-based interactive sequential diagnostic system is introduced which provides for diagnosis of multiple disorders in several body systems. The knowledge base consists of disorder patterns in a hierarchical structure that constitute the background medical information required for diagnosis in the domain under consideration (emergency and critical care medicine, in our case). Utilizing this knowledge base, the diagnostic process is driven by a multimembership classification algorithm for diagnostic assessment as well as for information acquisition [1]. A key characteristic of the system is congenial man-machine interface which comes to expression in, for instance, the flexibility it offers to the user in controlling its operation. At any stage of the diagnostic process the user may decide on an operation strategy that varies from full user control, through mixed initiative to full system control. Likewise, the system is capable of explaining to the user the reasoning process for its decisions. The model is independent of the knowledge base, thereby permitting continuous update of the knowledge base, as well as expansions to include disorders from other disciplines. The information structure lends itself to compact storage and provides for efflcient computation. Presently, the system contains 53 high-level disorders which are diagnosed by means of 587 medical findings.

Pattern-Based Interactive Diagnosis of Multiple Disorders: The MEDAS System

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Pattern-Based Interactive Diagnosis of Multiple Disorders: The MEDAS System