Statistical method for testing the neutral mutation hypothesis by DNA polymorphism.

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The effective population sizes of ancestral as well as modern species are important parameters in models of population genetics and human evolution. The commonly used method for estimating ancestral population sizes, based on counting mismatches between the species tree and the inferred gene trees, is highly biased as it ignores uncertainties in gene tree reconstruction. In this article, we develop a Bayes method for simultaneous estimation of the species divergence times and current and ancestral population sizes. The method uses DNA sequence data from multiple loci and extracts information about conflicts among gene tree topologies and coalescent times to estimate ancestral population sizes. The topology of the species tree is assumed known. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to integrate over uncertain gene trees and branch lengths (or coalescence times) at each locus as well as species divergence times. The method can handle any species tree and allows different numbers of sequences at different loci. We apply the method to published noncoding DNA sequences from the human and the great apes. There are strong correlations between posterior estimates of speciation times and ancestral population sizes. With the use of an informative prior for the human-chimpanzee divergence date, the population size of the common ancestor of the two species is estimated to be ∼20,000, with a 95% credibility interval (8000, 40,000). Our estimates, however, are affected by model assumptions as well as data quality. We suggest that reliable estimates have yet to await more data and more realistic models.

/pdf/bayes-estimation-of-species-divergence-times-and-ancestral-37hkcsc1uc.pdf

Bayes Estimation of Species Divergence Times and Ancestral Population Sizes Using DNA Sequences From Multiple Loci

To study the genomic divergences among hominoids and to estimate the effective population size of the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees, we selected 53 autosomal intergenic nonrepetitive DNA segments from the human genome and sequenced them in a human, a chimpanzee, a gorilla, and an orangutan. The average sequence divergence was only 1.24% ± 0.07% for the human-chimpanzee pair, 1.62% ± 0.08% for the human-gorilla pair, and 1.63% ± 0.08% for the chimpanzee-gorilla pair. These estimates, which were confirmed by additional data from GenBank, are substantially lower than previous ones, which included repetitive sequences and might have been based on less-accurate sequence data. The average sequence divergences between orangutans and humans, chimpanzees, and gorillas were 3.08% ± 0.11%, 3.12% ± 0.11%, and 3.09% ± 0.11%, respectively, which also are substantially lower than previous estimates. The sequence divergences in other regions between hominoids were estimated from extensive data in GenBank and the literature, and Alus showed the highest divergence, followed in order by Y-linked noncoding regions, pseudogenes, autosomal intergenic regions, X-linked noncoding regions, synonymous sites, introns, and nonsynonymous sites. The neighbor-joining tree derived from the concatenated sequence of the 53 segments—24,234 bp in length—supports the Homo-Pan clade with a 100% bootstrap value. However, when each segment is analyzed separately, 22 of the 53 segments (∼42%) give a tree that is incongruent with the species tree, suggesting a large effective population size (Ne) of the common ancestor of Homo and Pan. Indeed, a parsimony analysis of the 53 segments and 37 protein-coding genes leads to an estimate of Ne = 52,000 to 96,000. As this estimate is 5 to 9 times larger than the long-term effective population size of humans (∼10,000) estimated from various genetic polymorphism data, the human lineage apparently had experienced a large reduction in effective population size after its separation from the chimpanzee lineage. Our analysis assumes a molecular clock, which is in fact supported by the sequence data used. Taking the orangutan speciation date as 12 to 16 million years ago, we obtain an estimate of 4.6 to 6.2 million years for the Homo-Pan divergence and an estimate of 6.2 to 8.4 million years for the gorilla speciation date, suggesting that the gorilla lineage branched off 1.6 to 2.2 million years earlier than did the human-chimpanzee divergence.

https://terpconnect.umd.edu/~jzsimon/hlsc374/ref/Chen+LiAmJHumGenet2001.pdf

Genomic Divergences between Humans and Other Hominoids and the Effective Population Size of the Common Ancestor of Humans and Chimpanzees

▪ Abstract Since the completion of the human genome sequencing project, the discovery and characterization of human genetic variation is a principal focus for future research. Comparative studies across ethnically diverse human populations and across human and nonhuman primate species is important for reconstructing human evolutionary history and for understanding the genetic basis of human disease. In this review, we summarize data on patterns of human genetic diversity and the evolutionary forces (mutation, genetic drift, migration, and selection) that have shaped these patterns of variation across both human populations and the genome. African population samples typically have higher levels of genetic diversity, a complex population substructure, and low levels of linkage disequilibrium (LD) relative to non-African populations. We discuss these differences and their implications for mapping disease genes and for understanding how population and genomic diversity have been important in the evolution, di...

Patterns of Human Genetic Diversity: Implications for Human Evolutionary History and Disease

Human DNA sequence variation data are useful for studying the origin, evolution, and demographic history of modern humans and the mechanisms of maintenance of genetic variability in human populations, and for detecting linkage association of disease. Here, we report worldwide variation data from a approximately 10-kilobase noncoding autosomal region. We identified 75 variant sites in 64 humans (128 sequences) and 463 variant sites among the human, chimpanzee, and orangutan sequences. Statistical tests suggested that the region is selectively neutral. The average nucleotide diversity (pi) across the region was 0.088% among all of the human sequences obtained, 0.085% among African sequences, and 0.082% among non-African sequences, supporting the view of a low nucleotide diversity ( approximately 0.1%) in humans. The comparable pi value in non-Africans to that in Africans indicates no severe bottleneck during the evolution of modern non-Africans; however, the possibility of a mild bottleneck cannot be excluded because non-Africans showed considerably fewer variants than Africans. The present and two previous large data sets all show a strong excess of low frequency variants in comparison to that expected from an equilibrium population, indicating a relatively recent population expansion. The mutation rate was estimated to be 1.15 x 10(-9) per nucleotide per year. Estimates of the long-term effective population size N(e) by various statistical methods were similar to those in other studies. The age of the most recent common ancestor was estimated to be approximately 1.29 million years ago among all of the sequences obtained and approximately 634,000 years ago among the non-African sequences, providing the first evidence from a noncoding autosomal region for ancient human histories, even among non-Africans.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/97/21/11354.full.pdf

Worldwide DNA sequence variation in a 10-kilobase noncoding region on human chromosome 22

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Worldwide DNA sequence variation in a 10-kilobase noncoding region on human chromosome 22