This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners.

https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/79230/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x.pdf?sequence=1

The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition

Earths resources are consumed by one of its 5-30 million species homo sapiens or man at a rate disproportionately greater than any other species. Mans impact on the biosphere is measured in terms of net primary production (NPP). NPP is the amount of energy remaining after the respiration of primary producers (mostly plants) is subtracted from the total amount of biologically fixed energy (mostly solar). Human output is determined by 1) the direct NPP used for food fuel fiber or timber which yields a low estimate 2) all NPP of cropland devoted to human activity and 3) both 1) and 2) and land conversion for cities or pastures as well as conversion which results in desertification and overuse of lands. This last output determination yields a high estimate. Calculations are made for global NPP and each of the 3 estimates of low intermediate and high human output. Data are based on estimates by Ajtay et al. Armentano and Loucks and Houghton et al. and on the Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) summaries. Petagram (Pg) is used to calculate organic matter; this is equivalent to 10 to the 15th power grams or 10 to the 9th power metric tons. Carbon has been converted to organic matter by multiplying by 2.2. Matter in kilocalories has been converted to organic matter by dividing by 5. Intermediate or conservative estimates have been included. The standard of biomass is 1244 Pg and an annual NPP to 132.1. The NPP of marine and freshwater ecosystems is considered to be 92.4 Pg which is a low estimate. The low calculation of human (5 billion persons) consumption of plants at a caloric intake of 2500 kilocalories/person/day is .91 Pg of organic matter which equals .76 Pg of vegetable matter. The global production of human food is 1/7 Pg for grains and for human and livestock fed or .85 Pg of dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with a subtraction of 20% for water content. 34% or .39 Pg is lost to waste and spoilage. Consumption by livestock forest usage and aquatic ecosystems is computed. The overall estimate for human use if 7.2 Pg of organic matter/year or 3% of total NPP/year. The intermediate figures take into account cropland pastureland forest use and conversion; the overall estimate of human use is 42.6 Pg of NPP/year of 19.0% (42.6/224.5) of NPP (30.7% on land and 2.2% on seas). The high estimate yields human use of 58.1 Pg/year on land or 40% (58.1/149.6) of potential land productivity or 25% (60.1/149.8 + 92.4) of land and water NPP. The remaining 60% of land is also affected by humans. The figures reflect the current patterns of exploitation distribution and consumption of a much larger population. These patterns amount to using >50% of NPP of land; there must be limits to growth.

/pdf/human-appropriation-of-the-products-of-photosynthesis-5arm1xw7mn.pdf

Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis

Lowest-low fertility, defined as a period total fertility rate at or below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s. This article traces the emergence of this new phenomenon to the interaction of five factors. First, tempo and compositional distortions reduce the total fertility rate below the associated level of cohort fertility. Second, socioeconomic changes—including increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood—have made late childbearing a rational response for individuals and couples. Third, social interaction effects reinforce this behavioral adjustment and contribute to large and persistent postponement in the mean age at birth. Fourth, institutional settings favor an overall low quantum of fertility. Fifth, postponement–quantum interactions amplify the consequences of this institutional setting when combined with ongoing delays of child-bearing. The article concludes with speculations about future trends in current and prospective lowest-low-fertility countries.

The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s

Unintended pregnancy in the United States: incidence and disparities, 2006.

Background: The incidence of unintended pregnancy is among the most essential health status indicators in the field of reproductive health. One ongoing goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services is to reduce unintended pregnancy, but the national rate has not been estimated since 2001. Study Design: We combined data on women's pregnancy intentions from the 2006–2008 and 2002 National Survey of Family Growth with a 2008 national survey of abortion patients and data on births from the National Center for Health Statistics, induced abortions from a national abortion provider census, miscarriages estimated from the National Survey of Family Growth and population data from the US Census Bureau. Results: Nearly half (49%) of pregnancies were unintended in 2006, up slightly from 2001 (48%). The unintended pregnancy rate increased to 52 per 1000 women aged 15–44 years in 2006 from 50 in 2001. Disparities in unintended pregnancy rates among subgroups persisted and in some cases increased, and women who were 18–24 years old, poor or cohabiting had rates two to three times the national rate. The unintended pregnancy rate declined notably for teens 15–17 years old. The proportion of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion decreased from 47% in 2001 to 43% in 2006, and the unintended birth rate increased from 23 to 25 per 1000 women 15–44 years old. Conclusions: Since 2001, the United States has not made progress in reducing unintended pregnancy. Rates increased for nearly all groups and remain high overall. Efforts to help women and couples plan their pregnancies, such as increasing access to effective contraceptives, should focus on groups at greatest risk for unintended pregnancy, particularly poor and cohabiting women.

Original research article Unintended pregnancy in the United States: incidence and disparities, 2006

Childbearing behavior in east asian countries has changed rapidly and fundamentally during the past 50 to 60 years. in the middle of the twentieth century large families with an average of five to seven children were the rule. in Japan almost immediately thereafter, and in the other countries 20 to 30 years later, replacement level was reached and since then fertility has continued its decline to the lowest levels in the world. Fifty years ago almost all women in east asia married and had children, whereas at present up to one-quarter of women may remain single at age 50 and one-fifth to onethird may remain childless. analyses of the institutional and socioeconomic environment affecting childbearing point to the likelihood of protracted very low fertility (Jones et al. 2009). Concern is growing about the future decline of these populations and their aging. in east asia increasingly perceive that the societal costs of rapid population aging and shrinkage are likely to outweigh possible benefits (ibid.). therefore , at the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century most east asian governments are pursuing pronatalist policies, whereas 50 years ago they were pioneers in implementing antinatalist policies. thus far, the pronatalist policies have not generated the desired results. the analysis in this article reinforces the conclusion that fertil ity is likely to remain very low for years if not decades and that trends will not be reversed unless forceful and innovative policies are implemented. 1 the first section analyzes fertility trends in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and taiwan primarily using cohort fertility data and methods. 2 this is followed by an examination of the social and economic causes of the childbearing trends. the next section provides an overview

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/25749201.pdf

East Asian childbearing patterns and policy developments.

Societal conditions for early and high rates of childbearing were replaced by conditions generating late and low levels of fertility common in Western countries. Central among factors shaping the latter behaviour (job insecurity unstable partnership relationships expensive housing and profound changes in norms values and attitudes) were the following: increasing proportions of young people were acquiring advanced education a majority of women were gainfully employed yet women were performing most household maintenance and childrearing duties. Two theories prevailed to explain what caused changes in family formation and fertility trends. One argues that the economic and social crises were the principal causes. The other considered the diffusion of western norms values and attitudes as the prime factors of change. Neither reveals the root cause: the replacement of state socialist regimes with economic and political institutions of contemporary capitalism. The extraordinarily low period TFRs around 2000 were the result of low fertility of older women born around 1960 overlapping with low fertility of young women born during the 1970s. (authors)

pdf/overview-chapter-5-determinants-of-family-formation-and-32v2uxb15f.pdf

Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe

By the end of the 20th century the two-child family became the norm throughout Europe. Between 40 and over 50 percent of women in the 1950s and 1960s cohorts had two children. There were some incipient signs that shares of two-child families were declining especially in Central and Eastern and Southern Europe. An increase in childlessness among recent generations was an almost universal trend. The increase in proportions of one-child families was prominent in CEE and in SE. Wherever shares of childless women and of women with one child continue to grow the obvious result will be entrenched below replacement fertility. Much depends on progression ratios to first and to second births. In CEE mainly the progression ratios to second births are declining. In the Nordic countries progression ratios to first and to second births were relatively stable and even more so in France. Altogether most people opt for two children very few for three or more the frequency of the one-child family is increasingas are the proportions of people remaining childless. The latter trends were more pronounced in Southern Central and Eastern Europe and not so much in Northern and Western countries. (authors)

/pdf/overview-chapter-2-parity-distribution-and-completed-family-21lnepa181.pdf

Overview Chapter 2: Parity distribution and completed family size in Europe: Incipient decline of the two-child family model?

Levels and trends of various facets concerning first births are continuously changing. The evidence confirms that the postponement of first births is an ongoing and persisting process which started in western countries among cohorts of the 1940s but only in the 1960s cohorts in Central and Eastern Europe. The mean age of women having first births is universally rising. Fertility of older women was increasing. The decline in childbearing of young women is robust among the cohorts of the late 1960s and the 1970s; in Southern Europe as well as in central and Eastern Europe the rates of decline have accelerated. Childbearing behavior in the formerly socialist countries is in transition to a different regime. (authors)

/pdf/first-birth-trends-in-developed-countries-persisting-363olbs9wd.pdf

First birth trends in developed countries: Persisting parenthood postponement

Based on official data on religion, national origin, and other indicators of ethnic origin, Muslim fertility in 13 European countries is higher than that for other women, but in most countries with trend data the differences are diminishing over time. Fertility varies by country of origin of immigrants. Various European survey data show that higher proportions of Muslim women are married and their commitment to traditional family values is greater than among other women. Muslim women are more religious than non-Muslim women and religiousness is directly associated with fertility. Among Muslim women, religiousness and commitment to family values are equally important for fertility, while for non-Muslim women religiousness is much less important.

Religiousness and fertility among European Muslims.

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