The question of what controls animal abundance has always been fundamental to ecology, but given rapid environmental change, understanding the drivers and mechanisms governing abundance is more important than ever. Here, we determine how multidimensional environments and niches interact to determine population abundance along a tropical habitat gradient. Focusing on the endemic lizard Anolis bicaorum on the island of Utila (Honduras), we evaluate direct and indirect effects of three interacting niche axes on abundance: thermal habitat quality, structural habitat quality, and prey availability. We measured A. bicaorum abundance across a series of thirteen plots and used N-mixture models and path analysis to disentangle direct and indirect effects of these factors. Results showed that thermal habitat quality and prey biomass both had positive direct effects on anole abundance. However, thermal habitat quality also influenced prey biomass, leading to a strong indirect effect on abundance. Thermal habitat quality was primarily a function of canopy density, measured as leaf area index (LAI). Despite having little direct effect on abundance, LAI had a strong overall effect mediated by thermal quality and prey biomass. Our results demonstrate the role of multidimensional environments and niche interactions in determining animal abundance and highlight the need to consider interactions between thermal niches and trophic interactions to understand variation in abundance, rather than focusing solely on changes in the physical environment.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.7930

Disentangling controls on animal abundance: Prey availability, thermal habitat, and microhabitat structure.

Abstract Alternative ecological theories make divergent predictions about the relationship between predators and their prey. If predators exert top‐down ecosystem control, increases in predation should diminish prey abundance and could either diminish or enhance community diversity of prey species. However, if bottom‐up ecosystem controls predominate, predator populations should track underlying variation in prey diversity and abundance, which ultimately should reflect available energy. Past research, both across islands and comparing islands with the mainland, has frequently invoked the importance of predation in regulating lizard abundance and diversity, suggesting an important role of top‐down control when predators are present. However, others have posited a stronger role of food limitation, via competition or bottom‐up forces. If top‐down control predominates, then negative correlations between prey abundance and predator occurrence should emerge within and among islands. Using data from eBird, we inferred landscape‐level presence data for bird species on the islands of Jamaica and Hispaniola. By summing occurrence probabilities of all known anole‐predator birds, we estimated total avian predation pressure and combined these estimates with anole community data from a mark‐recapture study that spanned spatial and climatic gradients on both islands. Avian predators and anole lizards were both affected by climate, with total predator occurrence, anole abundance and anole species richness increasing with mean annual temperature. Anole abundance and predator occurrence showed a curvilinear relationship, where abundance and predator occurrence increased together until predator occurrence became sufficiently high that anole abundance was negatively impacted. This indicates that bottom‐up ecosystem controls drive richness of both anoles and their predators, mitigating the negative effects predators might have on their prey, at least until predator occurrence reaches a threshold. We did not detect consistent evidence of predator occurrence reducing anole community richness. These findings support past research showing that islands with more predators tend to have lower prey abundances, but it does not seem that these top‐down forces are strongly limiting species coexistence. Instead, bottom‐up forces linked with climate may be more important drivers of diversity in both lizards and their avian predators on these islands. 

Climate, predation, and the controls of island lizard abundance and community structure

To understand how ectotherms will respond to warming temperatures, we require information on thermal habitat quality at spatial resolutions and extents relevant to the organism. Measuring thermal habitat quality is either limited to small spatial extents, such as with ground‐based 3D operative temperature (Te) replicas, representing the temperature of the animal at equilibrium with its environment, or is based on microclimate derived from physical models that use land cover variables and downscale coarse climate data. We draw on aspects of both these approaches and test the ability of unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) data (optical RGB) to predict fine‐scale heterogeneity in sub‐canopy lizard (Anolis bicaorum) Te in tropical forest using random forest models. Anolis bicaorum is an endemic, critically endangered, species, facing significant threats of habitat loss and degradation, and work was conducted as part of a larger project. Our findings indicate that a model incorporating solely air temperature, measured at the centre of the 20 × 20 m plot, and ground‐based leaf area index (LAI) measurements, measured at directly above the 3D replica, predicted Te well. However, a model with air temperature and UAV‐derived canopy metrics performed slightly better with the added advantage of enabling the mapping of Te with continuous spatial extent at high spatial resolutions, across the whole of the UAV orthomosaic, allowing us to capture and map Te across the whole of the survey plot, rather than purely at 3D replica locations. Our work provides a feasible workflow to map sub‐canopy lizard Te in tropical environments at spatial scales relevant to the organism, and across continuous areas. This can be applied to other species and can represent species within the same community that have evolved a similar thermal niche. Such methods will be imperative in risk modelling of such species to anthropogenic land cover and climate change.

Unoccupied aerial vehicles as a tool to map lizard operative temperature in tropical environments

Abstract To understand mechanisms behind enigmatic declines of tropical reptiles, knowledge of species interactions and how they vary over space and time is important. Some tropical lizard population dynamics can be highly influenced by egg survival. Yet relatively few studies have examined relationships between lizard reproductive success and egg predators across forest and microhabitat types. In this study, we examined variation in probability of egg depredation, predatory ant abundance, prey availability, and the number of lizards and eggs encountered across four different forest types (abandoned agroforestry, abandoned plantation, secondary forest, and old-growth forest) and three microhabitats (buttress, fallen log, and leaf-litter) at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Based on previous studies, we made three hypotheses about how lizard egg abundance, egg survival, and predatory ant numbers would be related across microhabitat and forest type. Of these hypotheses, only one was supported: we found more lizard eggs in buttress and fallen log microhabitats than leaf-litter. We did not observe any differences in lizard reproduction or numbers of invertebrates by forest type alone. Based on patterns observed in this study, we suggest that future studies investigating tropical leaf-litter lizard declines focus on environmental variation at the microhabitat scale. 

Factors influencing tropical lizard reproduction vary by microhabitat but not forest type

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Disentangling controls on animal abundance: Prey availability, thermal habitat, and microhabitat structure.