Rightly ambitious, but can the NHS deliver?

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/364/bmj.l84.full.pdf

The NHS long term plan

The Wanless Report â?~Securing Our Future Health: Taking A Long-Term Viewâ?T - an independent review by Derek Wanless - is the first ever evidence-based assessment of the long-term resource requirements for the NHS.
It concludes that in order to meet peopleâ?Ts expectations and to deliver the highest quality over the next 20 years, the UK will need to devote more resources to health care and that this must be matched by reform to ensure that these resources are used effectively.
 - aims: 1. To examine the technological, demographic and medical trends over the next
two decades that may affect the health service in the UK as a whole.
2. In the light of (1), to identify the key factors which will determine the financial
and other resources required to ensure that the NHS can provide a publicly
funded, comprehensive, high quality service available on the basis of clinical
need and not ability to pay.
3. To report to the Chancellor by April 2002, to allow him to consider the possible
implications of th

Securing Our Future Health: Taking a Long-Term View. The Health Service in 2022

Securing a sustainable and fit-for-purpose UK health and care workforce.

The coronavirus pandemic has had huge impacts on the National Health Service (NHS). Patients suffering from the illness have placed unprecedented demands on acute care, particularly on Intensive Care Units (ICUs). This has led to an effort to dramatically increase the resources available to NHS hospitals in treating these patients, involving re-organisation of hospital facilities, redeployment of existing staff and a drive to bring in recently retired and newly graduated staff to fight the pandemic. These increases in demand and changes to supply have had large knock-on effects on the care provided to the wider population. This paper discusses likely implications for healthcare delivery in the short and medium term of the responses to the coronavirus pandemic, focusing primarily on the implications for non-coronavirus patients. Patterns of past care suggest those most likely to be affected by these disruptions will be older individuals and those living in more deprived areas, potentially exacerbating pre-existing health inequalities. Effects are likely to persist into the longer-run, with particular challenges around recruitment and ongoing staff shortages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The Wider Impacts of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the NHS.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed massive failures of governance at the global and national levels. Global health governance failed rapidly, with action quickly becoming nationally based, uncoordin...

COVID-19 and the failure of the neoliberal regulatory state

Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s - summary

In times of relatively low public spending in the UK since 2009–2010, health spending has been protected above all else. At the same time budgets for education, housing and public safety have fallen. This is in part due to the presence of growing demand for healthcare: while the population has increased by around one-third since 1950, healthcare spending as a share on national income has more than doubled. Continuing increases in quantity and complexity of the use of the health service as well as the unit costs indicate that these pressures will not be alleviated any time soon. However, there are clear benefits to investing in health; research finds that a 10% increase in health spending was associated with a gain of 3.5 months of life expectancy across the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from 1995 to 2015. In this paper, we discuss the potential value of additional ­spending.

https://www.rcpjournals.org/content/futurehosp/6/2/99.full.pdf

Health and care spending and its value, past, present and future.

Constraining the rise in costs continues to be a major focus of health care policy in high income countries. It is important for governments to understand what is driving the rise in health care expenditure and what the impact will be over the coming years. This paper aims to provide an alternative econometric model to ascertain the determinants of health expenditure. Data from the OECD and IMS data bases for 18 OECD countries between 1988 and 2012 is collected. The analysis is at the year and country level. This study applies three methods: (1) panel data models with country fixed effects; (2) a first difference model; (3) a Vector Error Correction Model to account for the long run and short run effects as well as the endogeneity of the explanatory variables. The empirical results suggest that the use of different econometric specifications has a significant impact on both establishing the determinants of health expenditure and their magnitudes. Based on results from the Vector Error Correction Model, the GDP is considered as the only driver for country level health care expenditure growth. A 1% increase in the GDP is associated with a 1.1% increase in the health care expenditure.

/pdf/what-determines-the-health-care-expenditure-of-high-income-p8a0ponh6d.pdf

What Determines the Health Care Expenditure of High Income Countries? A Dynamic Estimation

• In June 2018, the government set out the funding increase that NHS England would receive between 2018/19 and 2023/24. Allowing for the latest inflation estimates, NHS England’s budget is due to increase in real terms by £20.6bn,* an average of 3.3% per year. This rate of increase is below the historic average of 3.7% per year, but above the average growth rate of the last decade (2.1% per year). It is broadly in line with projections by the Health Foundation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) that maintaining current standards of care with a growing and ageing population and a rising burden of chronic disease will require total health spending to increase by 3.3% per year.

Investing in the NHS long term plan - job done?

Cost pressures on the NHS will only grow: it needs a long term funding solution, and that is likely to mean substantial tax rises

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