Following the 2016 U.S. presidential election, many have expressed concern about the effects of false stories (“fake news”), circulated largely through social media. We discuss the economics of fake news and present new data on its consumption prior to the election. Drawing on web browsing data, archives of fact-checking websites, and results from a new online survey, we find: (i) social media was an important but not dominant source of election news, with 14 percent of Americans calling social media their “most important” source; (ii) of the known false news stories that appeared in the three months before the election, those favoring Trump were shared a total of 30 million times on Facebook, while those favoring Clinton were shared 8 million times; (iii) the average American adult saw on the order of one or perhaps several fake news stories in the months around the election, with just over half of those who recalled seeing them believing them; and (iv) people are much more likely to believe stories that favor their preferred candidate, especially if they have ideologically segregated social media networks.

/pdf/social-media-and-fake-news-in-the-2016-election-1m4ttkb5mo.pdf

Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election

Examination of firms in 47 countries shows a widespread overlap of controlling shareholders and top officers who are connected with national parliaments or governments, particularly in countries with higher levels of corruption, with barriers to foreign investment, and with more transparent systems. Connections are diminished when regulations set more limits on official behavior. Additionally, I show that the announcement of a new political connection results in a significant increase in value.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID564281_code179428.pdf?abstractid=444960&rulid=5288166&mirid=5

Politically Connected Firms

Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics—which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination, and two types of interest-group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism—offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. We report on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism.

/pdf/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-rvb65gk6eu.pdf

Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens

Part 1 The argumentative turn: policy institutions and practices: Policy discourse and the politics of Washington think tanks, Frank Fischer Discourse coalitions and the institutionalization of practice - the case of acid rain in Great Britain, Maarten Hajer Political judgement and the policy cycle - the case of ethnicity arguments in the Netherlands, Robert Hoppe Counsel and consensus - norms of argumentation in health policy, Bruce Jennings. Part 2 Analytical concepts - frames, tropes, and narratives: Survey research as rhetorical trope - electric power planning arguments in Chicago, J.A. Throgmorton Frame reflective policy discourse, Martin Rein and Donald Schon Reading policy narratives - beginning, middle, and end, Thomas J. Kaplan Learning from practice stories - the priority of practical judgement, John Forester. Part 3 Theoretical perspectives: Policy anlysis and planning - from science to argumentation, John Dryzek Planning through debate - the communicative turn in planning theory, Patsy Healey Policy reforms as arguments, William Dunn Two worlds of policy discourse - consensual versus adversarial proposal selection, Duncan MacRae.

http://www.untag-smd.ac.id/files/Perpustakaan_Digital_2/POLICY%20ANALYSIS%20The%20Argumentative%20turn%20in%20policy%20analysis%20and%20planning.pdf

The argumentative turn in policy analysis and planning

https://pure.uva.nl/ws/files/4329011/63536_298150.pdf

Political connections and preferential access to finance : The role of campaign contributions

This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and the Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporary sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns, we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies, had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers’ Party. Firms supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperforming unconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These results are not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimators and definitions of affiliation.

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/stuff_for_blog/Ferg%20QJE%20Vol.%20123,%20No.%201%202008-1.pdf

Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany

We examine the effect of close links with the NSDAP on the stock price of listed firms in 1932-33. While earlier work had primarily analysed the connections between executives and the Nazi party, we also look at supervisory board membership - the importance of which is hard to overestimate in the case of Germany industry. One implication of our work is that, weighted by stockmarket capitalization in 1932, more than half of listed firms on the Berlin stock exchange had substantive links with the NSDAP. Crucially, stock market investors recognized the value of these links, sending the share prices of connected firms up once the new regime was firmly established. While all firms including unaffiliated ones saw a rise in their stock prices after Hitler's seizure of power, those with board members known to favor the party (or backing it financially) outperformed the market by 6 to 9 percent between January and May 1933. We show that this finding is robust to a range of additional control variables and alternative estimation techniques.

Betting on Hitler - The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany

Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics

"To discover who rules, follow the gold." This is the argument of this book, a history of modern American politics. Although the role big money plays in defining political outcomes has long been obvious to ordinary Americans, most pundits and scholars have virtually dismissed this assumption. Even in the light of sky-rocketing campaign costs, the belief that major financial interests primarily determine who parties nominate and where they stand on the issues - that, in effect, Democrats and Republicans are merely the left and right wings of the "Property Party" - has been ignored by most political scientists. Offering evidence ranging from the 19th century to the 1994 mid-term elections, this book shows that voters are "right on the money." Thomas Ferguson breaks completely with traditional voter-centred accounts of party politics. In its place he outlines an "investment approach," in which powerful investors, not unorganized voters, dominate campaigns and elections. Because businesses "invest" in political parties and their candidates, changes in industrial structures - between large firms and sectors - can alter the agenda of party politics and the shape of public policy. This book presents revised versions of essays in which Ferguson advanced and tested his theory, including his study of the role played by capital intensive multinationals and international financiers in the New Deal. The chapter, "Studies in Money Driven Politics", brings this aspect of American politics into better focus, along with other studies of Federal Reserve policy-making and campaign finance in the 1936 election. Ferguson analyzes how a changing world economy and other social developments broke up the New Deal system in our own time, through careful studies of the 1988 and 1992 elections. The essay on 1992 contains an extended analysis of the emergence of the Clinton coalition and Ross Perot's dramatic independent insurgency. A postscript on the 1994 elections demonstrates the controlling impact of money on several key campaigns.

Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems

Industrial partisan preference may be formally modeled as the joint consequence of pressures from labor and the differential impact of the world economy on particular businesses. This “basic” and static model, when extended to cover the money market, can be used to examine questions of political development, including the effects of fluctuations in national income on political coalitions. American institutions and public policy during the New Deal are used to test the theory against empirical evidence, much of it from new primary sources. The rise of the New Deal coalition is traced to changes in the American industrial structure deriving from the boom of the 1920s and the reversal of the U.S. financial position that resulted from World War I, in addition to the well-known labor militancy of the 1930s. The effect of these changes was the rise of a (Democratic) political coalition dominated by capital-intensive, multinationally dominant firms and industries with a strong interest in free trade and a historically unprecedented ability to cope with major industrial upheavals without resort to force. The major public policy initiatives of the New Deal are reexamined from this standpoint.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0020818300004276

From Normalcy to New Deal: industrial structure, party competition, and American public policy in the Great Depression

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