A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) con- ceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton- derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nu- trient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochem- istry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5 questions that will guide coastal science in the early 21st century: (1) How do system-specific attributes constrain or amplify the responses of coastal ecosystems to nutrient enrichment? (2) How does nutrient enrichment interact with other stressors (toxic contaminants, fishing harvest, aquaculture, nonindigenous species, habitat loss, climate change, hydro- logic manipulations) to change coastal ecosystems? (3) How are responses to multiple stressors linked? (4) How does human-induced change in the coastal zone impact the Earth system as habitat for humanity and other species? (5) How can a deeper scientific understanding of the coastal eutrophication problem be applied to develop tools for building strategies at ecosystem restoration or rehabilitation?

https://www.int-res.com/articles/meps/210/m210p223.pdf

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black Sea: Major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades?

Time series analyses (Box–Jenkins models) were used to study the influence of river runoff and wind mixing index on the productivity of the two most abundant species of small pelagic fish exploited in waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River continental shelf (north-western Mediterranean): anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus). River flow and wind were selected because they are known to enhance fertilization and local planktonic production, thus being crucial for the survival of fish larvae. Time series of the two environmental variables and landings of the two species were analysed to extract the trend and seasonality. All series displayed important seasonal and interannual fluctuations. In the long term, landings of anchovy declined while those of sardine increased. At the seasonal scale, landings of anchovy peaked during spring/summer while those of sardine peaked during spring and autumn. Seasonality in landings of anchovy was stronger than in sardine. Concerning the environmental series, monthly average Ebre runoff showed a progressive decline from 1960 until the late 1980s, and the wind mixing index was highest during 1994–96. Within the annual cycle, the minimum river flow occurs from July to October and the wind mixing peaks in winter (December–April, excluding January). The results of the analyses showed a significant correlation between monthly landings of anchovy and freshwater input of the Ebre River during the spawning season of this species (April–August), with a time lag of 12 months. In contrast, monthly landings of sardine were significantly positively correlated with the wind mixing index during the spawning season of this species (November–March), with a lag of 18 months. The results provide evidence of the influence of riverine inputs and wind mixing on the productivity of small pelagic fish in the north-western Mediterranean. The time lags obtained in the relationships stress the importance of river runoff and wind mixing for the early stages of anchovy and sardine, respectively, and their impact on recruitment.

Impact of freshwater input and wind on landings of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in shelf waters surrounding the Ebre (Ebro) River delta (north-western Mediterranean)

Phytoplankton succession in a coastal area of the NW Adriatic, over a 10-year sampling period (1990-1999)

The implementation of a conservation program since the early 1980s resulted in a reduction in phosphorus concentrations in Lake Geneva. However, in the 1990s, phytoplankton biomass increased again, almost reaching the high values recorded during the period of greatest P loading. The structural changes in the phytoplankton of Lake Geneva over the past 25 yr have been analyzed using a recently developed statistical method based on hierarchical clustering and Bayesian probabilities. This method has been used to identify phytoplankton assemblages and to map annual and interannual successional patterns simultaneously. Characteristic species were identified for each cluster after calculation of their relative species fidelity and specificity indices. Six distinct phytoplankton assemblages were identified, and although the way species are organized into communities remains unclear, the seasonal patterns of succession are consistent with the C-S-R adaptive strategies and are characteristic of temperate lakes. This pattern broadly recurred over the years, but was markedly influenced by both human activity and regional climatic changes: The warmer winters and springs recorded in Europe since 1988 led to an earlier clear-water phase. In the 1990s, the earlier and deeper depletion of dissolved inorganic phosphorus led to colonization in the summer by large species tolerant of low light levels and that could develop deeper in the water column, where phosphorus was still abundant. Their size made them less vulnerable to grazing losses, which favors their accumulation and lead to an unexpected high biomass in recent years.

Temporal mapping of phytoplankton assemblages in Lake Geneva: Annual and interannual changes in their patterns of succession

Analysis of time series of planktonic communities in the Adriatic Sea : distinguishing between natural and man induced changes

Year-to-year fluctuations in the abundance of zooplankton (1960-1982) and bacteria (1968-1988) were examined. Three main patterns of year-to-year changes in abundance were extracted by Principal Component Analysis (PCA): (1) Cyclical oscillations with 5.5 yr periodicity. This pattern is well correlated with salinity and southerly weather type (lower atmospheric pressure, southeasterly wind and higher precipitation) and can be accounted for by the water exchange between the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea. (2) Long-term trend of increasing abundance presumably due to the open Adriatic eutrophication. (3) Oscillations with 7.3 yr periodicity. This pattern is well correlated with temperature.

https://www.int-res.com/articles/meps/92/m092p065.pdf

Temporal fluctuations of zooplankton and bacteria in the middle Adriatic Sea

Ecological study of gas fields in northern Adriatic. 11. Ecological characteristics of the pelagic community

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Analysis of time series of planktonic communities in the Adriatic Sea : distinguishing between natural and man induced changes

Temporal fluctuations of zooplankton and bacteria in the middle Adriatic Sea

Ecological study of gas fields in northern Adriatic. 11. Ecological characteristics of the pelagic community