Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the effects of climatic change on the population dynamics of crop pests. The “greenhouse effect” may lead to a notable rise in global mean temperature and also changes in patterns of precipitation and wind. Such changes in climate and weather could profoundly affect the population dynamics and status of insect pests of crops. Climatic factors, notably temperature, directly affect the survival, development, reproduction and movement of individual insects and thus the potential distribution and abundance of a particular pest species. In temperate regions, the distribution and survival of many pests is often limited by low temperatures and particularly by the cold conditions which occur in winter. Climatic change may affect host plants in several ways; for example drought stress may cause changes in plant chemistry and plant structure which may increase or decrease the plant's suitability as a host. In temperate climates, warmer conditions will tend to favor many natural enemies but whether they play a more effective role in control will also depend upon the responses of the pest to changed climatic conditions. To provide a realistic assessment of whether a particular pest will or will not become more widespread and abundant, requires consideration of the overall pest-host plant-natural enemy relationship and how this is likely to alter under different climatic conditions and over varying time scales.

Effects of climatic change on the population dynamics of crop pests

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution and abundance of many species. Here we examine the potential effects of climate warming on olive (Olea europaea) and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) across the ecological zones of Arizona–California (AZ–CA) and Italy. A weather-driven physiologically-based demographic model was developed from the extensive literature and used to simulate the phenology, growth and population dynamics of both species. Observed weather for several years from 151 sites in AZ–CA and 84 sites in Italy were used in the study. Three climate-warming scenarios were developed by increasing observed average daily temperature 1°, 2° and 3°C. Predictions of bloom dates, yield, total fly pupae and percent infestation were mapped using GRASS GIS. Linear multiple-regression was used to estimate the effects of weather on yield and fly abundance. Olive has a much wider temperature range of favorability than olive fly. The model predicted the present distributions of both species and gave important insights on the potential effects of climate warming on them. In AZ–CA, climate warming is expected to contract the range of olive in southern desert areas, and expand it northward and along coastal areas. Olive fly is currently limited by high temperature in the southern part of its range and by cold weather in northern areas. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward and in coastal areas, but decrease it in southern areas. In Italy, the range of olive is expected to increase into currently unfavorable cold areas in higher elevations in the Apennine Mountains in central Italy, and in the Po Valley in the north. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward throughout most of Italy.

Effects of climate warming on Olive and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae (Gmelin)) in California and Italy

Effects of climate warming on Olive and olive fly (Bactrocera

The development and survival of female Neoceratitis cyanescens (Bezzi) (Diptera: Tephritidae) from egg to complete ovarian maturation were studied in the laboratory at five different constant temperatures: 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C. The aim of this study was to get information on the influence of temperature on pre-mature stages, as a prerequisite to optimise rearing procedures and to understand temporal and geographical patterns of fruit fly occurrence. The developmental rate of the different life stages increased linearly with increasing temperatures up to 30°C. The fastest development of pre-mature stages was recorded at 30°C (22 ± 1 days) and the slowest at 15°C (98 ::L 3 days). The day-degrees requirements (K) to complete total development were 432.6 day-degrees. Lower temperature thresholds were 11.4, 11.9, 10.0, and 11. 1°C for egg, larval, pupal stages and ovarian maturation, respectively. The number of adults obtained from an initial batch of 100 eggs reached a maximum (64) at 25°C. At 35°C, no adults emerged. Larval developmental time was significantly shorter in green tomato fruits than in potato tubers at 15, 20, and 25°C. Mortality rate of larvae was higher in green tomato fruits than in potato tubers at 25 and 30°C. (Resume d'auteur)

Relationships between temperature, development and survival of different life stages of the tomato fruit fly, Neoceratitis cyanescens

Laboratory studies were conducted to assess the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the development of the preimaginal stages of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae). The number of days required for the immature flies to complete their development and reach the adult stage (development time) were studied at five temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C) and under five soil moisture regimes (-2.14 Mpa [mega Pascal] [1% (wt:wt)], -0.5 MPa [5.0% (wt:wt)], -0.47 MPa [9.0% (wt:wt)], -0.28 MPa [13.0% (wt:wt)], and -0.23 MPa [17.0% (wt:wt)]). A parametric survival model describing the effect of linear and quadratic combinations of temperature and soil moisture and their interaction on the probability of completing the development over the experimental period was used. The lognormal parametric survival model was significant for C. capitata preimaginal development, with DT50 (the development time for 50% of the preimaginal C. capitata to reach the adult stage) ranging from 12.8 to 32.4 d. The highest percentages of adult emergence at 30 d were obtained at 24.8°C and intermediate soil moistures of 5.0 to 13.0% wt:wt. The average development time of the medfly preimaginals reaching the adult stage was inversely related to temperature and ranged from 7.4 to 26.1 d. This model could allow the monitoring of medfly preimaginal natural mortality in the soil, the prediction of adult emergence under field conditions, and therefore, the identification of suitable application times in the medfly lifecycle to achieve the maximum degree of adult and preimaginal control.

https://bioone.org/journals/Environmental-Entomology/volume-41/issue-4/EN12029/The-Effect-of-Temperature-and-Soil-Moisture-on-the-Development/10.1603/EN12029.pdf

The Effect of Temperature and Soil Moisture on the Development of the Preimaginal Mediterranean Fruit Fly (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Evaluation of different temperature - development rate models for predicting the phenology of the olive fly Dacus oleae

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Evaluation of different temperature - development rate models for predicting the phenology of the olive fly Dacus oleae