This article examines ‘enactment’ as a significant new form of knowledge about collective life that differs fundamentally from familiar forms of ‘social’ knowledge. The emergence of enactment is traced through a series of domains where the problem of estimating the likelihood and consequence of potentially catastrophic future events has been made an explicit object of expert reflection: response to a possible nuclear attack in US civil defence planning in the late 1940s; the emergence of natural hazard modelling in the 1960s and 1970s; and the emergence today of terrorism risk assessment and its proposed application to federal budgetary distributions. The article engages with central questions in debates around ‘risk society’ and insurance, holding that new approaches to understanding and assessing risk are not merely idiosyncratic or subjective. Rather, they should be treated as coherent new forms of knowledge and practice whose genealogy and present assemblies must be traced.

/pdf/enacting-catastrophe-preparedness-insurance-budgetary-5114s95385.pdf

Enacting catastrophe: preparedness, insurance, budgetary rationalization

Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These ...

Development of a global seismic risk model

An Introduction to Catastrophe Models and Insurance

We discuss the management of catastrophe-risks from a theoretical point of view. The concept of a catastrophe is informally and formally defined, and a number of desiderata for catastrophe-averse decision rules are introduced. However, the proposed desiderata turn out to be mutually inconsistent. As a consequence of this result, it is argued that the "rigid" form of catastrophe aversion articulated by, for example, the maximin rule, the maximum probable loss rule, (some versions of) the precautionary principle, and the rule proposed in Ekenberg et al. (1997, 2000) should be given up. An alternative form of "non-rigid" catastrophe aversion is considered.

The limits of catastrophe aversion.

The adolescent years of seismic risk assessment

This paper gives a basic introduction to the standard framework behind catastrophe modeling and explores the output of catastrophe modeling via modernized “pin maps” and loss likelihood curves. This paper also briefly discusses some of the uses of catastrophe modeling in addition to traditional probable maximum loss estimation and comments on the use of modeling for reinsurers. This article is intended to be “food for thought” and hopes to stimulate new catastrophe modeling ideas and enhancements. Biography: Ronald T. Kozlowski is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and a Consulting Actuary in the Hartford office of Tillinghast. Mr. Kozlowski holds a Bachelors degree in Actuarial Science from the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana. Among Mr Kozlowski’s many assignments and responsibilities is the development of TOPCAT, Tillinghast’s property catastrophe model. Stuart B. Mathewson is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, a Chartered Property Casualty Underwriter and a Consulting Actuary in the Chicago office of Tillinghast. Mr. Mathewson holds a Bachelors degree in Fire Protection Engineering from the Illinois Institute of Technology. Mr. Mathewson has spoken extensively at actuarial and other insurance group meetings on catastrophic loss modeling and heads the development of TOPCAT.

/pdf/measuring-and-managing-catastrophe-risk-142036o3fe.pdf

Measuring and Managing Catastrophe Risk

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Measuring and Managing Catastrophe Risk