The Volume and Dynamics of International Migration and Transnational Social Spaces

To what extent do international factors affect domestic conflict processes? How do external conditions affect the state's repressive capabilities and the opportunities for opposition groups to mobilize, launch an insurgency, and sustain it? This article argues that because state strength is limited by international boundaries, rebel groups often organize transnationally in order to evade repression. External bases, refugee communities, and characteristics of neighboring states are expected to increase the likelihood of civil war onset and continuation. Importantly, external mobilization is difficult for states to monitor and verify, a factor that exacerbates bargaining problems and increases the probability of armed conflict. These claims are tested through a quantitative analysis of civil conflicts from 1951 to 1999. Results suggest that weak neighbors, rival neighbors, and refugee diasporas contribute to rebellion and that conflicts endure longer when rebels have access to external bases.

Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups

The existing literature on forced migration limits our understanding of how violence affects migration to competing destinations. This article adds to the literature on forced migration by studying how armed violence during a period of civil conflict in south-central Nepal influenced the likelihood of local, internal, and international migration. We find that violence has a nonlinear effect on migration, such that low to moderate levels of violence reduce the odds of movement, but when violence reaches high levels, the odds of movement increase. We also find that the effect of violence on mobility increases as the distance of the move increases. When we consider the influence of violence on microlevel decision-making, we find that the effects of individual and household-level determinants were mostly consistent with hypotheses derived from contemporary theories of voluntary migration and that no predictor of migration influenced the decision to migrate differently in the presence of violence.

/pdf/individual-decisions-to-migrate-during-civil-conflict-1nk6fugdiv.pdf

Individual Decisions to Migrate During Civil Conflict

In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with what seemed to be an ever rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now gone into reverse. This paper examines what happened and why. How have oppression, violence and economic conditions in origin countries shaped worldwide trends in asylum applications? And has the toughening of policy towards asylum seekers since 2001 reduced the numbers? What policies have been effective and which host countries have been most affected? This paper surveys the trends in asylum seeking since the 1980s and the literature that it has generated and it provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the present. The key findings are first, that violence and terror can account for much of the variation across source countries and over time but it cannot fully explain the original surge in asylum applications during the 1980s. And second, while tougher policies did have a deterrent effect, they account for only about a third of the decline in applications since 2001.

/pdf/the-rise-and-fall-of-asylum-what-happened-and-why-4mdq5slf7i.pdf

The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?*

In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with what seemed to be an ever-rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now gone into reverse. This paper examines what happened and why. How have oppression, violence and economic conditions in origin countries shaped worldwide trends in asylum applications? And has the toughening of policy towards asylum seekers since 2001 reduced the numbers? What policies have been effective and which host countries have been most affected? This paper surveys the trends in asylum seeking since the 1980s and the literature that it has generated and it provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the present. The key findings are first, that violence and terror can account for much of the variation across source countries and over time but it cannot fully explain the original surge in asylum applications during the 1980s. And second, while tougher policies did have a deterrent effect, they account for only about a third of the decline in applications since 2001.

The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?

Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short answer, of course, is violence. More specifically, we contend that people monitor the violent behavior of both the government and dissidents and assess the threat such behavior poses to their lives, physical person, and liberty. The greater the threat posed by the behavior of the government and dissidents, the larger the number of forced migrants a country will produce. To test hypotheses drawn from our argument we use a global sample of countries over more than forty years. Our findings are consistent with our argument, and we are able to show that violent behavior has a substantially larger impact on forced migration than variables such as the type of political institutions or the average size of the economy.

Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952-95

What leads people seeking refuge from violence to select one country over another? One view of refugees as forced migrants suggests that they will flee to the nearest safe space. Another view of refugees as opportunists suggests that they will flee to the most free, wealthiest countries. We use a global sample of over 600,000 directed-dyad-years to test hypotheses concerning refugees' destination choices. Our findings show that while violence in the origin country produces flows, human rights violations and civil war in asylum countries have little impact on asylum choices, though refugees avoid genocides and foreign soldiers. The structure of political institutions and wage opportunities in the country of origin both influence refugees' decision to leave, yet neither political institutions nor potential wages affect the choice of where to seek refuge. The factors that impact asylum choices the most are proximity and the presence of family and friends.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID707784_code450862.pdf?abstractid=707784&mirid=5

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Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952-95

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