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Drivers of Infectious Disease Outbreaks: How Climate, Environment and Disease Control Programs Influence Occurence of Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Background: On 28th November 2010, an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Andong, Korea. Despite evacuation of people and animals in adjacent areas, the FMD virus spread to 75 cities in 11 provinces during this outbreak. This study argues that FMD is an infectious disease which is transmitted in a non-linear and non-prescriptive pattern by interactions of agents and external environments. Aims and Methods: This study aims to identify the dominant factors of the interaction between agents and their external environments that affect FMD transmission. The specific objectives of this research are: 1) To analyse the spatial distribution and transmission path of FMD, 2) To investigate cause-and-effect relationships that affect spatial spread of FMD, 3) To explore potential factors influencing the spatio-temporal risk of FMD transmission based on agent based model. To accomplish each goal, cartographical analysis, case and control study, and agent based model are used as a method. Results: The spatial distribution of FMD shows that most cases were concentrated in Gyeonggyi, Gangwon, and Gyeongbuk provinces. Subsequently, the spatial processes of FMD transmission show the entire procedure of FMD epidemic in 6 phases, and they explain the reasons of infection at each phase. Results of case and control study show that the logistic model was in a good fit, and odds of having the factor ‘farm density’, ‘road proximity’ and ‘temperature change’ was significantly higher than for control farms. Putting these factors (adding ‘highway proximity’) as parameters, the agent based simulation shows that human movement and external environments affect the velocity of disease transmission. A two level simulation is implemented, which is sensitivity (individual) analysis and combination analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis are ‘temperature change’ and ‘farm density’ as the major factors. Results of combination analysis are a mixture of low temperature and high livestock density have potential risk for FMD transmission.

/pdf/an-agent-based-approach-for-modelling-spatial-transmission-1jhdoveark.pdf

An Agent-based Approach for Modelling Spatial Transmission Processes of Foot-and-mouth Disease in Korea 2010-11

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An Agent-based Approach for Modelling Spatial Transmission Processes of Foot-and-mouth Disease in Korea 2010-11