计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

An extensive literature addresses citizen ignorance, but very little research focuses on misperceptions. Can these false or unsubstantiated beliefs about politics be corrected? Previous studies have not tested the efficacy of corrections in a realistic format. We conducted four experiments in which subjects read mock news articles that included either a misleading claim from a politician, or a misleading claim and a correction. Results indicate that corrections frequently fail to reduce misperceptions among the targeted ideological group. We also document several instances of a “backfire effect” in which corrections actually increase misperceptions among the group in question.

/pdf/when-corrections-fail-the-persistence-of-political-gwsn4g73q2.pdf

When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions

/pdf/social-capital-a-theory-of-social-structure-and-action-4m7poq6byy.pdf

Social capital: a theory of social structure and action

American Apartheid: Segregation and the Making of the Underclass. Douglas S. Massey , Nancy A. Denton

The multinomial logit model is perhaps the most commonly used regression model for nominal outcomes in the social sciences. A concern raised by many researchers, however, is the assumption of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) that is implicit in the model. In this article, the authors undertake a series of Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the three most commonly discussed tests of IIA. Results suggest that the size properties of the most common IIA tests depend on the data structure for the independent variables. These findings are consistent with an earlier impression that, even in well-specified models, IIA tests often reject the assumption when the alternatives seem distinct and often fail to reject IIA when the alternatives can reasonably be viewed as close substitutes. The authors conclude that tests of the IIA assumption that are based on the estimation of a restricted choice set are unsatisfactory for applied work.

Testing for IIA in the Multinomial Logit Model

This study compares the impact of the educational aspirations of parents, teachers, close relatives, and peers on students' educational expectations across various racial groups Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study, the authors found that both the levels of significant others' aspirations and the effects of these aspirations vary by students' racial statuses and types of significant others First, Asian, Hispanic, and African American parents tend to hold higher educational aspirations for their children than do white parents, but the relative influences of Asian and Hispanic mothers and African American fathers on students' educational expectations are smaller than those of their white counterparts Second, the aspirations of close relatives have greater effects on African American and Hispanic American students' educational expectations Third, although teachers and friends vary in their aspirations for students, depending on their race, the effects of these aspirations are similar for all racial groups The results suggest different processes through which familial significant others and other socializing agents influence the educational attitudes of students across racial groups

Racial Differences in the Effects of Significant Others on Students' Educational Expectations.

Regression Models for Categorical Outcomes

Measurement, methods, and divergent patterns: Reassessing the effects of same-sex parents.

Recent public health research has consistently reported that self-identified multiracial adolescents tend to display more problem behaviors and psychological difficulties than monoracial adolescents. Relying on insights from qualitative analyses using small or clinical samples to interpret these empirical patterns, these studies implicitly assume a pejorative stance toward adolescents’ multiracial self-identification. Building on the social psychological arguments underlying Park’s and Stonequist’s seminal discussions of the “marginal man,” we derive hypotheses indicating that self-identified multiracial adolescents may show more psychological difficulties, but are also likely to have more active social interaction and participation than monoracial groups. We also incorporate later elaborations of the marginal man theory to develop alternative hypotheses regarding multiracial youth’s school and behavioral outcomes. Based on a nationally representative sample of racially self-identified youth, the results suggest that patterns of multiracial-monoracial differences are generally consistent with the hypotheses derived closely from the marginal man theory or its subsequent elaborations. We examine the heterogeneities within these general patterns across different multiracial categories and discuss the implications of these findings.

Multiracial Self-Identification and Adolescent Outcomes: A Social Psychological Approach to the Marginal Man Theory

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