Despite the growing spatiotemporal density of geophysical observations at subduction zones, predicting the timing and size of future earthquakes remains a challenge. Here we simulate multiple seismic cycles in a laboratory-scale subduction zone. The model creates both partial and full margin ruptures, simulating magnitude M w 6.2-8.3 earthquakes with a coefficient of variation in recurrence intervals of 0.5, similar to real subduction zones. We show that the common procedure of estimating the next earthquake size from slip-deficit is unreliable. On the contrary, machine learning predicts well the timing and size of laboratory earthquakes by reconstructing and properly interpreting the spatiotemporally complex loading history of the system. These results promise substantial progress in real earthquake forecasting, as they suggest that the complex motion recorded by geodesists at subduction zones might be diagnostic of earthquake imminence. Plain Language Summary Large and devastating subduction earthquakes, such as the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake (Japan), are currently considered unpredictable. Scientists lack a long enough seismic catalog that is necessary for drawing statistical insights and developing predictions. For this reason, we simulate tens of earthquakes using a small-scale experimental replica of a subduction zone. We show that machine learning (a group of algorithms that make predictions based on the "information" acquired in past "experience") can predict when, where, and how big the next experimental earthquake will be. The "information" in our study is provided by the slow deformation accumulating in the analog tectonic plates during the periods in between earthquakes. Since such slow deformation is also measured by means of space geodesy along real subduction zones, there is the possibility that, in the future, variations of this machine learning approach can predict the timing and size of natural subduction earthquakes.

/pdf/machine-learning-can-predict-the-timing-and-size-of-analog-28o4jhqvlj.pdf

Machine Learning Can Predict the Timing and Size of Analog Earthquakes

https://dr.ntu.edu.sg/bitstream/10356/143808/2/Segmentation%20and%20supercycles%20-%20A%20catalog%20of%20earthquake%20rupture%20patterns%20from%20the%20Sumatran%20Sunda%20Megathrust%20and%20other%20well-studied%20faults%20worldwide.pdf

Segmentation and supercycles: A catalog of earthquake rupture patterns from the Sumatran Sunda Megathrust and other well-studied faults worldwide

Physical stability, microstructure and micro-rheological properties of water-in-oil-in-water (W/O/W) emulsions stabilized by porcine gelatin.

[1] Giant earthquake (moment magnitude Mw ≥ 8.5) forecasts for subduction zones have been empirically related to both tectonic stresses and geometrical irregularities along the subduction interface. Both of these controls have been suggested as able to tune the ability of rupture to propagate laterally and, in turn, exert an important control on giant earthquake generation. Here we test these hypotheses, and their combined influence, by compiling a dataset of trench fill thickness (a proxy for smoothing of subducting plate relief by sediment input into the subduction channel) and upper plate strain (a proxy for the tectonic stresses applied to the subduction interface) for 44 segments of the global subduction network. We statistically compare relationships between upper plate strain, trench sediment thickness and maximal earthquake magnitude. We find that the combination of both large trench fill (≥1 km) and neutral upper plate strain explains spatial patterns of giant earthquake occurrence to a statistically significant degree. In fact, the concert of these two factors is more highly correlated with giant earthquake occurrence than either factor on its own. Less frequent giant earthquakes of lower magnitude are also possible at subduction zones with thinner trench fill and compressive upper plate strain. Extensional upper plate strain and trench fill < 0.5 km appear to be unfavorable conditions, as giant earthquakes have not been observed in these geodynamical environments during the last 111 years.

Relation between subduction megathrust earthquakes, trench sediment thickness and upper plate strain

What model material to use? A Review on rock analogs for structural geology and tectonics

The majority of the largest subduction megathrust earthquakes share the common characteristic of rupturing more than one asperity along strike of the margin. Understanding the factors that control coseismic failure of multiple asperities, and thus maximum magnitude, is central for seismic hazard assessment. To investigate the role of asperities size and spacing on maximum magnitude, seismicity rate, and percentage of synchronized ruptures, we use analog models simulating along-strike rupture behavior of megathrust earthquakes. We found negative correlations between the barrier-to-asperity length ratio Db/Da and maximum magnitude and seismicity rate. Db/Da also controls the process of asperities synchronization along the megathrust. A permanent barrier behavior is observed for Db/Da > 0.5. Comparing our experimental results to the Nankai Trough historical seismicity, we propose that the distribution of megathrust frictional heterogeneities likely explains the diversity of earthquakes which occurred there.

/pdf/control-of-asperities-size-and-spacing-on-seismic-behavior-sn8saunscc.pdf

Control of asperities size and spacing on seismic behavior of subduction megathrusts

On the Relationships Between Geodynamics and Megathrust Seismicity

How long-term dynamics of sediment subduction controls short-term dynamics of seismicity

It has been widely recognized that the presence of seamounts can profoundly affect megathrust seismicity. With their outstanding topography, seamounts can tune interplate stress and favor the development of a fracture network in the overriding plate. Subducting seamounts can also control fluid accumulation and sediment porosity.&amp;#160;However, their role as barriers or triggers for rupture propagation remains a matter of debate.In this work, we used analog models to study how geometric and frictional heterogeneities associated with a single subducting seamount influence the seismogenic behavior of the megathrust. We used four different model configurations (i.e., a flat interface, a high-friction and low-friction seamount, and a low-friction patch) to investigate both the combined and individual effect of geometry and friction.Our results show that low friction areas, either flat or with a seamount relief, reduce interplate coupling. Also the presence of a geometric feature tends to decrease seismic coupling and segment ruptures promoting earthquakes enucleation on the flat region. The maximum barrier efficiency is achieved with the low-friction patch model, where the accumulated stress is preferentially released by the occurrence of small earthquakes. This behavior is well suited to natural cases where seamounts are supposed to lower interplate friction due to fluid release or by the development of fracture systems development, causing microseismicity and slow slip events. 

Seamount subduction and megathrust seismicity: the interplay between geometry and friction.

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