Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (vs. 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Evolving understanding of Antarctic ice-sheet physics and ambiguity in probabilistic sea-level projections

Coastal GIA processes revealed by the early to middle Holocene sea-level history of east China

In urban environment, there exist numerous pre-existing underground structures, which act as underground barriers to block the groundwater flow and soil movement, i.e., water-blocking (WB) and soil-blocking (SB) effects, making the responses of groundwater and soil to dewatering different from that without nearby structure. In this study, dewatering inside a foundation pit with a nearby metro station was simulated in a coupled hydro-mechanical numerical model; after validating the model by measured results from a field pumping test, extensive numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the behaviours of groundwater and soil during dewatering under WB and SB effects. Results show that the two effects would induce opposite soil response, either aggravating or restricting the dewatering-induced soil settlement; under the combined actions of the two barrier effects, the soil responses depend on which effect would play a dominant role. When the distance between the metro station and foundation pit (D) is small, the SB effect plays a leading role, restricting the dewatering-induced soil settlement; as D increases, both the SB and WB effects get weakened while SB effect weakens more rapidly; when D surpasses a critical value, the WB effect in turn plays a dominant role, aggravating the dewatering-induced soil settlement. 

Responses of groundwater and soil to dewatering considering the barrier effect of adjacent metro station on multi-aquifers

Sedimentary records of mid-Holocene coastal flooding at a Neolithic site on the southeast plain of Hangzhou Bay, east China

The Liangzhu Culture (5300–4300 cal. a BP) has been regarded as the culmination of the Neolithic Age in the Yangtze Delta and as an archaic state. However, the reason behind the collapse of the Liangzhu Culture remains controversial. Some scholars attributed it to social conflicts or foreign invasions, while others suggested that environmental deterioration, such as cold episodes, inundation and palaeo-typhoon events, disrupted the civilization. Notably, the yellowish silty sediments widely overlying the Liangzhu group sites have been presumed to be one of the vital clues to resolving these issues. The process and cause of their formation are key to understanding the decline in the Liangzhu Culture. In this study, two typical profiles composed of the Liangzhu cultural layer and yellowish silty sediments were collected in Liangzhu Ancient City. Multiple proxies, including pollen, phytoliths and diatoms, along with radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating and synthesized geochemical evidence from different sediments, were applied to reconstruct ecological and hydrological changes and discuss their linkage to cultural collapse. The regional ecology was typical freshwater wetlands during 4800–4400 cal. a BP, which facilitated rice farming and large-scale architectural engineering in Liangzhu Ancient City. Evidence from microfossils and dating of the yellowish silty sediments indicated that Liangzhu Ancient City was significantly affected by seawater after abandonment during 4300–3400 cal. a BP. Furthermore, geochemical evidence, including trace element and Sr-Nd isotopic compositions, suggested that the primary provenance of the yellowish silt was a mixture of sediments from the Qiantang River, East China Sea, Yangtze River and Yellow River, which had been transported to Liangzhu Ancient City by the Yellow Sea Coastal Current and a marine transgression. Therefore, based on evidence from archaeological sites and numerical simulation in the Yangtze Delta, it was supposed that the short-term accelerated relative sea-level rise at approximately 4400 cal. a BP caused a marine transgression around Taihu Lake, formed a large range of yellowish silty sediments, destroyed rice farming production, and ultimately led to the collapse of the Liangzhu Culture.

Multi-proxy evidence of environmental change related to collapse of the Liangzhu Culture in the Yangtze Delta, China

Characteristics of ground settlement due to combined actions of groundwater drawdown and enclosure wall movement

Numerical simulation of mid-Holocene tidal regime and storm-tide inundation in the south Yangtze coastal plain, East China

Building and ground settlement due to construction dewatering is a well-studied topic. However, most previous investigations have not considered the barrier effect of an adjacent underground structure on the drawdowns and resulting settlements. In this study, the barrier effect and its influence during construction dewatering for a metro station foundation pit is investigated. There are five aquifers at the foundation pit site, and a row of buildings supported on pile foundations, which act as an underground barrier to flow, is present on one side of the pit. On the other sides, there are no deep underground structures to impede groundwater flow. Field monitoring of the groundwater level drawdown, diaphragm wall movement, and ground and building settlements on both sides of the pit was carried out during dewatering. The results indicate that on the side with the pile foundations, the groundwater level drawdown, ground settlement, differential settlement, and angular distortion of building incurred by dewatering were relatively greater, but the diaphragm wall movements were relatively smaller. The effect of preexisting barriers should be considered in the assessment of construction dewatering-induced drawdowns, soil settlements, and building movements. 

Ground Behavior due to Dewatering Inside a Foundation Pit Considering the Barrier Effect of Preexisting Building Piles on Aquifer Flow

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Characteristics of ground settlement due to combined actions of groundwater drawdown and enclosure wall movement

Numerical simulation of mid-Holocene tidal regime and storm-tide inundation in the south Yangtze coastal plain, East China

Ground Behavior due to Dewatering Inside a Foundation Pit Considering the Barrier Effect of Preexisting Building Piles on Aquifer Flow