Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

Air transport is a key infrastructure of modern societies. In this paper we review some recent approaches to air transport, which make extensive use of theory of complex networks. We discuss possible networks that can be defined for the air transport and we focus our attention to networks of airports connected by flights. We review several papers investigating the topology of these networks and their dynamics for time scales ranging from years to intraday intervals, and consider also the resilience properties of air networks to extreme events. Finally we discuss the results of some recent papers investigating the dynamics on air transport network, with emphasis on passengers traveling in the network and epidemic spreading.

/pdf/modelling-the-air-transport-with-complex-networks-a-short-3fmwddgpbb.pdf

Modelling the air transport with complex networks: A short review

. While stand alone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need in numerous atmospheric and climate applications for a fused product on a regular grid. Aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers, and like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see significant use in the near future. Here we present a standardized 2003–2013 global 1 × 1° and 6-hourly modal aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product. This data set can be applied to basic and applied Earth system science studies of significant aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and electro-optical propagation and sensor performance, among other uses. This paper describes the science of how to develop and score an aerosol reanalysis product. This reanalysis utilizes a modified Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled retrievals of AOT from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra. The aerosol source functions, including dust and smoke, were regionally tuned to obtain the best match between the model fine- and coarse-mode AOTs and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOTs. Other model processes, including deposition, were tuned to minimize the AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT. Aerosol wet deposition in the tropics is driven with satellite-retrieved precipitation, rather than the model field. The final reanalyzed fine- and coarse-mode AOT at 550 nm is shown to have good agreement with AERONET observations, with global mean root mean square error around 0.1 for both fine- and coarse-mode AOTs. This paper includes a discussion of issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses, considerations for extending such a reanalysis outside of the NASA A-Train era, and examples of how the aerosol reanalysis can be applied or fused with other model or remote sensing products. Finally, the reanalysis is evaluated in comparison with other available studies of aerosol trends, and the implications of this comparison are discussed.

/pdf/an-11-year-global-gridded-aerosol-optical-thickness-1sndwfcgo9.pdf

An 11-year global gridded aerosol optical thickness reanalysis (v1.0) for atmospheric and climate sciences

This paper presents a methodology for the detection of critical airports (those whose isolation would cause the largest losses in network connectivity) in the global air transport network (ATN), based on simulating an attack on selected ATN airports using different adaptive selection criteria. The performances of several node selection criteria are compared, together with a new criterion based on Bonacich power centrality. The results show that most critical airports can be detected with an adaptive strategy based on betweenness centrality. The detection of such airports may help the development of contingency plans to develop an appropriate response to any airport closure.

Robustness of the air transport network

Study of the topology and robustness of airline route networks from the complex network approach: a survey and research agenda

The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano had a devastating effect on the European air traffic network, preventing air travel throughout most of Europe for 6 days (Oroian in ProEnvironment 3:5–8, 2010). The severity of the disruption was surprising as previous research suggests that this type of network should be tolerant to random hazard (Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000; Strogatz in Nature 410(6825):268–276, 2001). The source of this hazard tolerance lies in the degree distribution of the network which, for many real-world networks, has been shown to follow a power law (Albert et al. in Nature 401(6749):130–131, 1999; Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000). In this paper, we demonstrate that the ash cloud was unexpectedly disruptive because it was spatially coherent rather than uniformly random. We analyse the spatial dependence in air traffic networks and demonstrate how the combination of their geographical distribution and their network architectures jeopardises their inherent hazard tolerance.

/pdf/the-vulnerability-of-the-european-air-traffic-network-to-1v4zdg63yv.pdf

The vulnerability of the European air traffic network to spatial hazards

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The vulnerability of the European air traffic network to spatial hazards