The Montreal Protocol is working, but it will take several decades for ozone to return to 1980 levels. The atmospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances are decreasing, and ozone column amounts are no longer decreasing. Mid-latitude ozone is expected to return to 1980 levels before mid-century, slightly earlier than predicted previously. However, the recovery rate will be slower at high latitudes. Springtime ozone depletion is expected to continue to occur at polar latitudes, especially in Antarctica, in the next few decades. Because of the success of the Protocol, increases in UV-B radiation have been small outside regions affected by the Antarctic ozone hole, and have been difficult to detect. There is a large variability in UV-B radiation due to factors other than ozone, such as clouds and aerosols. There are few long-term measurements available to confirm the increases that would have occurred as a result of ozone depletion. At mid-latitudes UV-B irradiances are currently only slightly greater than in 1980 (increases less than ~5%), but increases have been substantial at high and polar latitudes where ozone depletion has been larger. Without the Montreal Protocol, peak values of sunburning UV radiation could have been tripled by 2065 at mid-northern latitudes. This would have had serious consequences for the environment and for human health. There are strong interactions between ozone depletion and changes in climate induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Ozone depletion affects climate, and climate change affects ozone. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has had a marked effect on climate change. The calculated reduction in radiative forcing due to the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) far exceeds that from the measures taken under the Kyoto protocol for the reduction of GHGs. Thus the phase-out of CFCs is currently tending to counteract the increases in surface temperature due to increased GHGs. The amount of stratospheric ozone can also be affected by the increases in the concentration of GHGs, which lead to decreased temperatures in the stratosphere and accelerated circulation patterns. These changes tend to decrease total ozone in the tropics and increase total ozone at mid and high latitudes. Changes in circulation induced by changes in ozone can also affect patterns of surface wind and rainfall. The projected changes in ozone and clouds may lead to large decreases in UV at high latitudes, where UV is already low; and to small increases at low latitudes, where it is already high. This could have important implications for health and ecosystems. Compared to 1980, UV-B irradiance towards the end of the 21st century is projected to be lower at mid to high latitudes by between 5 and 20% respectively, and higher by 2-3% in the low latitudes. However, these projections must be treated with caution because they also depend strongly on changes in cloud cover, air pollutants, and aerosols, all of which are influenced by climate change, and their future is uncertain. Strong interactions between ozone depletion and climate change and uncertainties in the measurements and models limit our confidence in predicting the future UV radiation. It is therefore important to improve our understanding of the processes involved, and to continue monitoring ozone and surface UV spectral irradiances both from the surface and from satellites so we can respond to unexpected changes in the future.

/pdf/ozone-depletion-and-climate-change-impacts-on-uv-radiation-2ua2ta0gdn.pdf

Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation

The complexity of the linkages between ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and climate change has become more apparent.

/pdf/environmental-effects-of-ozone-depletion-and-its-1tz7l47o2c.pdf

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2011

The Montreal Protocol has limited increases in the UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation reaching the Earth's surface as a result of depletion of stratospheric ozone. Nevertheless, the incidence of skin cancers continues to increase in most light-skinned populations, probably due mainly to risky sun exposure behaviour. In locations with strong sun protection programs of long duration, incidence is now reducing in younger age groups. Changes in the epidemiology of UV-induced eye diseases are less clear, due to a lack of data. Exposure to UV radiation plays a role in the development of cataracts, pterygium and possibly age-related macular degeneration; these are major causes of visual impairment world-wide. Photodermatoses and phototoxic reactions to drugs are not uncommon; management of the latter includes recognition of the risks by the prescribing physician. Exposure to UV radiation has benefits for health through the production of vitamin D in the skin and modulation of immune function. The latter has benefits for skin diseases such as psoriasis and possibly for systemic autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis. The health risks of sun exposure can be mitigated through appropriate sun protection, such as clothing with both good UV-blocking characteristics and adequate skin coverage, sunglasses, shade, and sunscreen. New sunscreen preparations provide protection against a broader spectrum of solar radiation, but it is not clear that this has benefits for health. Gaps in knowledge make it difficult to derive evidence-based sun protection advice that balances the risks and benefits of sun exposure.

/pdf/human-health-in-relation-to-exposure-to-solar-ultraviolet-17qp1qde8e.pdf

Human health in relation to exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation under changing stratospheric ozone and climate

This report assesses the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and anticipated ozone recovery on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. Interactions between changes in ozone and changes in climate, as well as their effects on UV radiation, are also considered. These evaluations focus mainly on new knowledge gained from research conducted during the last four years. Furthermore, drivers of changes in UV radiation other than ozone are discussed and their relative importance is assessed. The most important of these factors, namely clouds, aerosols and surface reflectivity, are related to changes in climate, and some of their effects on short- and long-term variations of UV radiation have already been identified from measurements. Finally, projected future developments in stratospheric ozone, climate, and other factors affecting UV radiation have been used to estimate changes in solar UV radiation from the present to the end of the 21st century. New instruments and methods have been assessed with respect to their ability to provide useful and accurate information for monitoring solar UV radiation at the Earth's surface and for determining relevant exposures of humans. Evidence since the last assessment reconfirms that systematic and accurate long-term measurements of UV radiation and stratospheric ozone are essential for assessing the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments and adjustments. Finally, we have assessed aspects of UV radiation related to biological effects and human health, as well as implications for UV radiation from possible solar radiation management (geoengineering) methods to mitigate climate change.

/pdf/ozone-climate-interactions-and-effects-on-solar-ultraviolet-4me3zoymd2.pdf

Ozone–climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation

The Global Solar UV Index was developed as an easy-to-understand measure of the amount of biologically-effective ambient solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) at different locations on the earth's surface. Over the past few years, questions have been raised about the global applicability of the UV Index, about the evidence base for exposure risk thresholds and related protective measures, and about whether the overall impact of the UV Index could be improved with modifications. An international workshop was organized by several organizations, including the World Health Organization, to assess if current evidence was sufficiently strong to modify the UV Index and to discuss different ways it might be improved in order to influence sun-protective behavior. While some animal research suggests there may be no threshold effect, the relative importance of sub-erythemal doses of sunlight in causing skin cancer in humans remains unknown. Evidence suggests that regular use of sunscreen can prevent skin cancer and that sunglasses are an effective method of protecting the eyes from solar UVR. The UV Index as a risk communication tool continues to be useful for raising awareness and to support sun-protection behavior. Although there was agreement that guidance on the use of the UV Index could be improved, the workshop participants identified that strong health outcome-based human evidence would be needed as the basis for a revision. For the UV Index to be relevant in as many countries as possible, it should continue to be adapted to suit local conditions.

/pdf/review-of-the-global-solar-uv-index-2015-workshop-report-z0il240kbi.pdf

Review of the Global Solar UV Index 2015 Workshop Report.

The standardisation of UV information to the public through the UV Index (UVI) has been hugely beneficial since its endorsement by multiple international agencies more than 10 years ago. It has now gained widespread acceptance, and UVI values are available throughout the world from satellite instruments, ground-based measurements, and from forecasts based on model calculations. These have been useful for atmospheric scientists, health professionals (skin and eye specialists), and the general public. But the descriptors and health messages associated with the UVI scale are targeted towards European skin types and UV regimes, and are not directly applicable to the population living closer to the equator, especially for those in the high-altitude Altiplano region of South America. This document arose from discussions at the Latin American Society of Photobiology and Photomedicine's Congress, which was held in Arequipa, Peru, in November 2013. A major outcome of the meeting was the Arequipa Accord, which is intended as a unifying document to ensure co-ordination of UV and health research decisions in Latin America. A plank of that agreement was the need to tailor the UVI scale to make it more relevant to the region and its population. Here we make some suggestions to improve the international applicability of the UVI scale.

/pdf/proposal-for-a-modification-of-the-uvi-risk-scale-2gqc86bjre.pdf

Proposal for a modification of the UVI risk scale

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Proposal for a modification of the UVI risk scale