An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Volume I

Usually, one wants to have a simple picture of the trustworthiness of the main elections result. However, in some situations only partial information about the elections is available. Here we suggest some criterion of comparing of the available information with the official results. One of the criterions consists in comparison of the mean value over available sample with the official mean value. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to calculate a probability of the difference between the average value in some random sample and the average over the total set. Another method is an analysis of the nature of the peculiarities in the probability distribution functions consisting in comparison of the probability distribution functions for the percentage and the number of voters for Mr. Lukashenko in each polling station. The last criterion is rather esthetic than exposing. It could be applied to arbitrary elections systems such as United Kingdom or United States if one wants to extract the main result in a few pictures.

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Statistical Analysis of the Presidential Elections in Belarus in 2020

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Statistical Analysis of the Presidential Elections in Belarus in 2020