Techno-economic assessment and sustainability impact of hybrid energy systems in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Integrated water resources management at river basin scales and evaluation of effects of climate change on regional water resources require quantitative estimates of space-time variability of monthly discharges within a river network. This study demonstrates that such estimates, which can be called stream water availability, for regional river basins with meager or nonexistent gauge data, can be obtained by combining continuity models of hydrological processes, flow routing, and topology of the river basin. The hydrologic processes can be adequately modeled using high quality databases of hydrologic significance. A stream water availability model is presented for Upper Indus Basin (UIB) utilizing the most up-to-date datasets for topography, temperature, precipitation, net radiation, land cover, soil type, and digital atlas. Multiple datasets have been evaluated and the ones with best accuracy and temporal coverage have been selected for the final model. Upper Indus River and its major tributaries are highly significant in regional water resources management and geopolitics. However, UIB is a poorly studied and largely ungauged river basin with an area of 265,598 km2 and extremely rugged topography. Several factors, the chief ones being the challenging terrain and the trans-boundary nature of the basin, have contributed to this knowledge gap. Hydro-climatologically it is a complex basin with a significant cryospheric component. The spatial and temporal variation of the principal climatic variables, namely precipitation, net radiation, and temperature has been thoroughly accounted for in the development of a stream water availability model based on a process model coupled with a topologic model and a linear reservoir model of river flow routing. Model calculations indicate that there are essentially two hydrologic regimes in UIB. The regime that is truly significant in contributing stream flows, originates from the UIB cryosphere containing outstanding glaciers and snowfields. The other regime, generated from wet precipitation and melt water from seasonal snow covers is insignificant due to high rates of infiltration and evaporation in the semi-desert environment prevailing at elevations below perennial snow and ice covers. In general, the modeled stream flow characteristics match with the sparse discharge measurements that are available. Flow in the Indus considerably increases at its confluence with Shyok River and further downstream where other tributaries form the north join the main stem. At or near the outlet of the basin stream flow can vary from less than 800 m3 s − 1 in the winter and spring to nearly 8,000 m3 s − 1 in the peak summer and can persist to over 1,500 m3 s − 1 in the autumn. The importance of snow and glacial melt in Indus River discharge is apparent and any global or regional climate change affecting the equilibrium line elevation of the snow fields in the Karakoram will have a profound influence on the water availability in the Indus. Estimates are made for per capita water availability in Ladakh and Gilgit-Baltistan territories, controlled by India and Pakistan respectively. Geopolitical significance and climate change effects are discussed briefly.

A Stream Water Availability Model of Upper Indus Basin Based on a Topologic Model and Global Climatic Datasets

Corruption in Swat , Pakistan is impairing the sustainable management of forest. In this study, we focus on the factors leading to corruption in forest management in Swat : we analyse corruption in a case study setting against the backdrop of the reform options that are most often cited as possible solutions. As we highlight in this study, the “crime and punishment ” approach (Becker 1968), is not feasibly implemented if the overall institutional environment is weak. Since countrywide overhaul of corruption through sweeping reform programs, the other reform approach which we call the “holistic approach ”, is a difficult and lengthy task, which is seldom accomplished (Kaufmann et al. 2005), we find that there is a need for alternative/complementary kind of reform. In this study, we argue for reforms that are limited in geographical and institutional scope, and which can accompany or precede more sweeping reform programs. In the case of a corruption ridden centralized forest management regime, institutional reform should move away from enforcement of existing institutions and promote communal management of natural resources by locals. That is not to say that more comprehensive reforms should not be pursued: their implementation could go hand in hand with local reforms. We believe that the lack of implementation of wider reforms cannot be an excuse for inaction.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=1017233

The Rule of the Jungle in Pakistan: A Case Study on Corruption and Forest Management in Swat

There is certainly a growing need to justify the significance of studying health-seeking behaviours for designing advocacy campaigns, lobbying for a policy shift and convincing donors to invest in priority areas. Moreover, policymakers need to be encouraged to design evidence-based policies that take into account information relating to health-promoting, -seeking and -utilization behaviour and the factors determining these behaviours. This paper primarily covers the 'methodology' used in the study of health-seeking behaviours and determinants of health services utilization in a predominantly rural district of Pakistan. The paper substantiates that this methodology is comprehensive and reliable, and there is potential for replicating this in similar settings. The approach of Kroeger in his research on the study of health-seeking behaviours, particularly in developing countries, provides the most holistic framework for examining, analysing and interpreting factors and determinants of health-seeking behaviours and health services utilization in developing countries. This study endeavoured to validate Kroeger's framework in a Pakistani setting, exploring all the factors listed through mixed method research, and qualitative supplemented by representative quantitative enquiry. This approach has also helped in understanding the inter-relationship of various factors and drivers of health-seeking behaviours from all angles.

Studying health-seeking behaviours: collecting reliable data, conducting comprehensive analysis

The purpose of this paper is to understand local perceptions on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity, rangeland, agriculture and human health.,A household survey with 300 interviewees and focus group discussions with key stakeholders were conducted and validated at two steps, using the climate data from the nearest weather stations and reviewing literatures, to correlate the local perceptions on climate change and its impacts.,Majority of the respondents reported an increase in temperature and change in the precipitation pattern with increased hazardous incidences such as floods, avalanches and landslides. Climate change directly impacted plant distribution, species composition, disease and pest infestation, forage availability, agricultural productivity and human health risks related to infectious vector-borne diseases.,Because of the remoteness and difficult terrain, there are insufficient local weather stations in the mountains providing inadequate scientific data, thus requiring extrapolation from nearest stations for long-term climate data monitoring.,The research findings recommend taking immediate actions to develop local climate change adaptation strategies through a participatory approach that would enable local communities to strengthen their adaptive capacity and resilience.,Local knowledge-based perceptions on climate change and its impacts on social, ecological and economic sectors could help scientists, practitioners and policymakers to understand the ground reality and respond accordingly through effective planning and implementing adaptive measures including policy formulation.,This research focuses on combining local knowledge-based perceptions and climate science to elaborate the impacts of climate change in a localised context in Rakaposhi Valley in Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan.

Local knowledge based perceptions on climate change and its impacts in the Rakaposhi valley of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Northern Areas strategy for sustainable development

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Northern Areas strategy for sustainable development