We evaluated the performance of a large language model called ChatGPT on the United States Medical Licensing Exam (USMLE), which consists of three exams: Step 1, Step 2CK, and Step 3. ChatGPT performed at or near the passing threshold for all three exams without any specialized training or reinforcement. Additionally, ChatGPT demonstrated a high level of concordance and insight in its explanations. These results suggest that large language models may have the potential to assist with medical education, and potentially, even clinical decision-making.

/pdf/performance-of-chatgpt-on-usmle-potential-for-ai-assisted-f5ud1fvl.pdf

Performance of ChatGPT on USMLE: Potential for AI-assisted medical education using large language models

What can we say about the statistical crisis in science that has not already been said? Eminent scientists like Paul Meehl, Jakob Cohen and John Ioannidis have already done a great job pinpointing the problems with P-values, null hypothesis significance testing, nonreplicable research, sloppy statistics and fishing expeditions. At the other end of the spectrum journalists at The Atlantic, The New Yorker, FiveThirtyEight and The New York Times have done a surprisingly good job of translating these issues to a lay audience. What is left?

The statistical crisis in science

Abandoning ineffective medical practices and mitigating the risks of untested practices are important for improving patient health and containing healthcare costs. Historically, this process has relied on the evidence base, societal values, cultural tensions, and political sway, but not necessarily in that order. We propose a conceptual framework to guide and prioritize this process, shifting emphasis toward the principles of evidence-based medicine, acknowledging that evidence may still be misinterpreted or distorted by recalcitrant proponents of entrenched practices and other biases.

/pdf/evidence-based-de-implementation-for-contradicted-unproven-1oyasxu5ul.pdf

Evidence-based de-implementation for contradicted, unproven, and aspiring healthcare practices

Importance The strength of association between surrogate end points and survival in oncology is important to understand because surrogate end points are frequently used in oncology clinical trials, supporting US Food and Drug Administration approvals and National Comprehensive Cancer Network guideline recommendations. Objective To identify and evaluate trial-level meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials quantifying the association between a surrogate end point and overall survival in medical oncology. Trial-level correlations test whether treatments that improve the surrogate end point also improve the final end point and are widely considered the strongest evidence to validate a surrogate end point. Evidence Review Our literature search was built on earlier reported data sets and updated with Google Scholar and MEDLINE searches conducted on December 26, 2014. For MEDLINE, search terms included (“regression” or “correlation”) and “surrogate” and “end point [or endpoint]” and (“oncology” or “cancer”). For Google scholar, search terms included (“regression” or “correlation”) and “surrogate end point [or endpoint]” and “overall survival” and “trial level.” A total of 108 abstracts were retrieved, and 62 articles were read in full in addition to articles identified through prior reviews. Findings We found 36 articles in which 65 specific correlations between a surrogate end point and survival were identified. Surrogate end points were studied in the neoadjuvant, adjuvant, locally advanced, and metastatic settings. The most common sources for trials included in the 36 articles were systematic reviews of the published literature (10 of 36; 28%), and published literature and meeting abstracts (14 of 36; 39%). Four meta-analyses (11%) used a convenience sample, and only 5 studies (14%) attempted to include unpublished trials by surveying clinical trial registries. Among these 5 studies, only 352 of 684 eligible trials (51.1%) were included in the analyses. More than half of reported correlations (34 of 65; 52%) were of low strength ( r  ≤ 0.7). Approximately a quarter (16 of 65; 25%) were of medium strength ( r  > 0.7 to r r  ≥ 0.85) with survival. Conclusions and Relevance Most trial-level validation studies of surrogate end points in oncology find low correlations with survival. All validation studies use only a subset of available trials. The evidence supporting the use of surrogate end points in oncology is limited.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/articlepdf/2323416/ioi150055.pdf

The Strength of Association Between Surrogate End Points and Survival in Oncology: A Systematic Review of Trial-Level Meta-analyses

Low-value clinical practices are common in healthcare, yet the optimal approach to de-adopting these practices is unknown. The objective of this study was to systematically review the literature on de-adoption, document current terminology and frameworks, map the literature to a proposed framework, identify gaps in our understanding of de-adoption, and identify opportunities for additional research. MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Cochrane Database of Abstracts and Reviews of Effects, and CINAHL Plus were searched from 1 January 1990 to 5 March 2014. Additional citations were identified from bibliographies of included citations, relevant websites, the PubMed ‘related articles’ function, and contacting experts in implementation science. English-language citations that referred to de-adoption of clinical practices in adults with medical, surgical, or psychiatric illnesses were included. Citation selection and data extraction were performed independently and in duplicate. From 26,608 citations, 109 were included in the final review. Most citations (65 %) were original research with the majority (59 %) published since 2010. There were 43 unique terms referring to the process of de-adoption—the most frequently cited was “disinvest” (39 % of citations). The focus of most citations was evaluating the outcomes of de-adoption (50 %), followed by identifying low-value practices (47 %), and/or facilitating de-adoption (40 %). The prevalence of low-value practices ranged from 16 % to 46 %, with two studies each identifying more than 100 low-value practices. Most articles cited randomized clinical trials (41 %) that demonstrate harm (73 %) and/or lack of efficacy (63 %) as the reason to de-adopt an existing clinical practice. Eleven citations described 13 frameworks to guide the de-adoption process, from which we developed a model for facilitating de-adoption. Active change interventions were associated with the greatest likelihood of de-adoption. This review identified a large body of literature that describes current approaches and challenges to de-adoption of low-value clinical practices. Additional research is needed to determine an ideal strategy for identifying low-value practices, and facilitating and sustaining de-adoption. In the meantime, this study proposes a model that providers and decision-makers can use to guide efforts to de-adopt ineffective and harmful practices.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186%2Fs12916-015-0488-z.pdf

Towards understanding the de-adoption of low-value clinical practices: a scoping review

Objective: To identify medical practices that offer no net benefits. Methods: We reviewed all original articles published in 10 years (2001-2010) in one high-impact journal. Articles were classified on the basis of whether they addressed a medical practice, whether they tested a new or existing therapy, and whether results were positive or negative. Articles were then classified as 1 of 4 types: replacement, when a new practice surpasses standard of care; back to the drawing board, when a new practice is no better than current practice; reaffirmation, when an existing practice is found to be better than a lesser standard; and reversal, when an existing practice is found to be no better than a lesser therapy. This study was conducted from August 1, 2011, through October 31, 2012. Results: We reviewed 2044 original articles, 1344 of which concerned a medical practice. Of these, 981 articles (73.0%) examined a new medical practice, whereas 363 (27.0%) tested an established practice. A total of 947 studies (70.5%) had positive findings, whereas 397 (29.5%) reached a negative conclusion. A total of 756 articles addressing a medical practice constituted replacement, 165 were back to the drawing board, 146 were medical reversals, 138 were reaffirmations, and 139 were inconclusive. Of the 363 articles testing standard of care, 146 (40.2%) reversed that practice, whereas 138 (38.0%) reaffirmed it. Conclusion: The reversal of established medical practice is common and occurs across all classes of medical practice. This investigation sheds light on low-value practices and patterns of medical research.

/pdf/a-decade-of-reversal-an-analysis-of-146-contradicted-medical-tsndagq1vf.pdf

A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices

Background— The prevalence of prosthesis-patient mismatch (PPM) and its impact on survival after aortic valve replacement have not been clearly defined. Historically, the presence of PPM was identified from postoperative echocardiograms or preoperative manufacturer-provided charts, resulting in wide discrepancies. The 2009 American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) guidelines proposed an algorithmic approach to calculate PPM. This study compared PPM prevalence and its impact on survival using 3 modalities: (1) the ASE guidelines–suggested algorithm (ASE PPM); (2) the manufacturer-provided charts (M PPM); and (3) the echocardiographically measured, body surface area–indexed, effective orifice area (EOAi PPM) measurement.

Methods and Results— A total of 614 patients underwent aortic valve replacement with bovine pericardial valves from 2004 to 2009 and had normal preoperative systolic function. EOAi PPM was severe if EOAi was ≤0.60 cm2/m2, moderate if EOAi was 0.60 to 0.85 cm2/m2, and absent (none) if EOAi was ≥0.85 cm2/m2. ASE PPM was severe in 22 (3.6%), moderate in 6 (1%), and absent (none) in 586 (95.4%). ASE PPM was similar to manufacturer-provided PPM ( P =1.00). ASE PPM differed significantly from EOAi PPM ( P <0.001), which identified severe mismatch in 170 (29.7%), moderate in 191 (33.4%), and absent (none) in 211 patients (36.9%). Irrespective of the PPM classification method, PPM did not adversely affect midterm survival (average follow-up, 4.1±1.8 years; median, 3.9 years; range, 0.01–8 years). There were no reoperations for PPM.

Conclusions— In patients with normal systolic function undergoing bovine pericardial aortic valve replacement, the prevalence of PPM using the algorithmic-ASE approach was low and correlated well with manufacturer-provided PPM. Independent of the method of PPM assessment, PPM was not associated with medium-term mortality.

Prosthesis-patient mismatch in bovine pericardial aortic valves: evaluation using 3 different modalities and associated medium-term outcomes.

Early repolarization (ER) on a 12-lead electrocardiogram has recently been associated with ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTAs) in patients without structural heart disease and in patients with healed myocardial infarction (MI). An association between ER and VTAs in the setting of acute ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI) has not been explored. In a single-center retrospective case–control design, 50 patients with STEMI complicated by VTAs (cases), defined as ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or nonsustained ventricular tachycardia within 72 hours of the index hospitalization, were matched for age and gender with 50 subjects with STEMI without VTAs (controls). Electrocardiograms obtained an average of 1 year before STEMI were analyzed for ER pattern, defined as notching or slurring of the terminal QRS complex or J-point elevation >0.1 mV above baseline in ≥2 contiguous leads. A higher prevalence of ER was associated with VTAs overall in cases compared to controls (26% vs 4%, p = 0.01) and localized to anterior (16% vs 0%) and inferior (14% vs 2%, p = 0.07) leads but not lateral limb leads. Notching (10% vs 2%, p = 0.1) and J-point elevation (16% vs 0%) were more common in cases. Slurring was uncommon. ER was associated with VTAs (odds ratio [OR] 6.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5 to 28.8, p = 0.01), even after adjustment for creatine kinase-MB (OR 9.2, 95% CI 1.6 to 53.4, p = 0.01) and ejection fraction (OR 5.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 27.1, p = 0.03). In conclusion, ER is associated with VTAs in patients with STEMI even after adjustment for left ventricular ejection fraction or creatine kinas-MB levels. Larger prospective studies exploring potential associations and mechanisms of ventricular arrhythmogenesis with ER pattern are needed.

Clinical characteristics and prevalence of early repolarization associated with ventricular arrhythmias following acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

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A Decade of Reversal: An Analysis of 146 Contradicted Medical Practices

Prosthesis-patient mismatch in bovine pericardial aortic valves: evaluation using 3 different modalities and associated medium-term outcomes.

Clinical characteristics and prevalence of early repolarization associated with ventricular arrhythmias following acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction.