Brains, it has recently been argued, are essentially prediction machines. They are bundles of cells that support perception and action by constantly attempting to match incoming sensory inputs with top-down expectations or predictions. This is achieved using a hierarchical generative model that aims to minimize prediction error within a bidirectional cascade of cortical processing. Such accounts offer a unifying model of perception and action, illuminate the functional role of attention, and may neatly capture the special contribution of cortical processing to adaptive success. This target article critically examines this "hierarchical prediction machine" approach, concluding that it offers the best clue yet to the shape of a unified science of mind and action. Sections 1 and 2 lay out the key elements and implications of the approach. Section 3 explores a variety of pitfalls and challenges, spanning the evidential, the methodological, and the more properly conceptual. The paper ends (sections 4 and 5) by asking how such approaches might impact our more general vision of mind, experience, and agency.

/pdf/whatever-next-predictive-brains-situated-agents-and-the-epj56cs868.pdf

Whatever next? Predictive brains, situated agents, and the future of cognitive science

We present the science and technology roadmap for graphene, related two-dimensional crystals, and hybrid systems, targeting an evolution in technology, that might lead to impacts and benefits reaching into most areas of society. This roadmap was developed within the framework of the European Graphene Flagship and outlines the main targets and research areas as best understood at the start of this ambitious project. We provide an overview of the key aspects of graphene and related materials (GRMs), ranging from fundamental research challenges to a variety of applications in a large number of sectors, highlighting the steps necessary to take GRMs from a state of raw potential to a point where they might revolutionize multiple industries. We also define an extensive list of acronyms in an effort to standardize the nomenclature in this emerging field.

/pdf/science-and-technology-roadmap-for-graphene-related-two-4q9m7czlkc.pdf

Science and technology roadmap for graphene, related two-dimensional crystals, and hybrid systems

Neuronal Synchrony: A Versatile Code for the Definition of Relations?

The Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) mission, launched on 2012 June 13, is the first focusing high-energy X-ray telescope in orbit. NuSTAR operates in the band from 3 to 79 keV, extending the sensitivity of focusing far beyond the ~10 keV high-energy cutoff achieved by all previous X-ray satellites. The inherently low background associated with concentrating the X-ray light enables NuSTAR to probe the hard X-ray sky with a more than 100-fold improvement in sensitivity over the collimated or coded mask instruments that have operated in this bandpass. Using its unprecedented combination of sensitivity and spatial and spectral resolution, NuSTAR will pursue five primary scientific objectives: (1) probe obscured active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity out to the peak epoch of galaxy assembly in the universe (at z ≾ 2) by surveying selected regions of the sky; (2) study the population of hard X-ray-emitting compact objects in the Galaxy by mapping the central regions of the Milky Way; (3) study the non-thermal radiation in young supernova remnants, both the hard X-ray continuum and the emission from the radioactive element ^(44)Ti; (4) observe blazars contemporaneously with ground-based radio, optical, and TeV telescopes, as well as with Fermi and Swift, to constrain the structure of AGN jets; and (5) observe line and continuum emission from core-collapse supernovae in the Local Group, and from nearby Type Ia events, to constrain explosion models. During its baseline two-year mission, NuSTAR will also undertake a broad program of targeted observations. The observatory consists of two co-aligned grazing-incidence X-ray telescopes pointed at celestial targets by a three-axis stabilized spacecraft. Deployed into a 600 km, near-circular, 6° inclination orbit, the observatory has now completed commissioning, and is performing consistent with pre-launch expectations. NuSTAR is now executing its primary science mission, and with an expected orbit lifetime of 10 yr, we anticipate proposing a guest investigator program, to begin in late 2014.

/pdf/the-nuclear-spectroscopic-telescope-array-nustar-high-energy-2oznujlfte.pdf

THE NUCLEAR SPECTROSCOPIC TELESCOPE ARRAY (NuSTAR) HIGH-ENERGY X-RAY MISSION

CO line emission represents the most accessible and widely used tracer of the molecular interstellar medium. This renders the translation of observed CO intensity into total H2 gas mass critical to understand star formation and the interstellar medium in our Galaxy and beyond. We review the theoretical underpinning, techniques, and results of efforts to estimate this CO-to-H2 “conversion factor,” XCO, in different environments. In the Milky Way disk, we recommend a conversion factor XCO = 2×10 20 cm −2 (K km s −1 ) −1 with ±30% uncertainty. Studies of other “normal galaxies” return similar values in Milky Way-like disks, but with greater scatter and systematic uncertainty. Departures from this Galactic conversion factor are both observed and expected. Dust-based determinations, theoretical arguments, and scaling relations all suggest that XCO increases with decreasing metallicity, turning up sharply below metallicity ≈ 1/3–1/2 solar in a manner consistent with model predictions that identify shielding as a key parameter. Based on spectral line modeling and dust observations, XCO appears to drop in the central, bright regions of some but not all galaxies, often coincident with regions of bright CO emission and high stellar surface density. This lower XCO is also present in the overwhelmingly molecular interstellar medium of starburst galaxies, where several lines of evidence point to a lower CO-to-H2 conversion factor. At high redshift, direct evidence regarding the conversion factor remains scarce; we review what is known based on dynamical modeling and other arguments. Subject headings: ISM: general — ISM: molecules — galaxies: ISM — radio lines: ISM

/pdf/the-co-to-h2-conversion-factor-26tvppkvj7.pdf

The CO-to-H2 Conversion Factor

As the application of the MEMS parts increases, the structural safety of MEMS appears importantly. A lot of MEMS parts are made by a multi-grain silicon wafer, which is an orthotropic material. Moreover directions of the materials on each grain are distributed randomly. The stress analysis for the multi-grain is important factor in order to apply the MEMS parts to industrial applications. The finite element method (FEM) is commonly used by a stress analysis method but the boundary element method (BEM) is known as the result of the BEM is more accurate than that of the FEM since the fundamental solution are used. In this study, we derived the boundary integration equation for the orthotropic material by applying fundamental solutions with complex variables. The multi-region analysis procedure for the BEM and the multi-grain generation procedure by a random process technique are developed in order to apply the analysis of the multi-grain orthotropic material. The discontinuous element is used in order to remove the comer problem in the BEM. The results of the present method are compared with those of the finite element method in order to verify the present procedure.

A Study of Stress Analysis of Multi-Grain Orthotropic Material by BEM

To adapt to dynamic surroundings, we need to reliably maintain sensory experiences while making accurate decisions about them. Nonetheless, humans tend to bias their ongoing actions toward their past decisions, a phenomenon dubbed decision-consistent bias. Efforts to explain this seemingly irrational bias have been limited to the sensory readout account. Here, by putting the bias in the context of mnemonic maintenance, we uncover its previously unidentified source: the interplay of decision-making with the drift dynamics of visual working memory. By taking behavioral snapshots of human visual working memory while concurrently tracking their cortical signals during a prolonged delay, we show that mnemonic representations transition toward a few stable points while initially biasing decisions and continuously drifting afterward in the direction consistent with the decisional bias. Task-optimized recurrent neural networks with drift dynamics reproduce the human data, offering a neural mechanism underlying the decision-consistent bias.

/pdf/decision-consistent-bias-mediated-by-drift-dynamics-of-human-3hu5v2uw.pdf

Decision-consistent bias mediated by drift dynamics of human visual working memory

Background: The prognostic impact and predictors of NOAF in HF patients are not fully elucidated. This study aims to determine whether new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) affects patient outcome and investigate predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF) in acute heart failure (HF) patients using real-world data. Methods: The factors associated with NOAF in 2894 patients with sinus rhythm (SR) enrolled in the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry were investigated. Survival was analyzed using AF as a time-dependent covariate. Relevant predictors of NOAF were analyzed using multivariate proportional hazards models. Results: Over 27.4 months, 187 patients developed AF. The median overall survival time was over 48 and 9.9 months for the SR and NOAF groups, respectively. Cox regression analysis with NOAF as a time-dependent covariate showed a higher risk of death among patients with NOAF. Multivariate Cox modeling showed that age, worsening HF, valvular heart disease (VHD), loop diuretics, lower heart rate, larger left atrium (LA) diameter, and elevated creatinine levels were independently associated with NOAF. Risk score indicated the number of independent predictors. The incidence of NOAF was 2.9%, 9.4%, and 21.8% in the low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Conditional inference tree analysis identified worsening HF, heart rate, age, LA diameter, and VHD as discriminators. Conclusions: NOAF was associated with decreased survival in acute HF patients with SR. Age, worsening HF, VHD, loop diuretics, lower heart rate, larger LA diameter, and elevated creatinine could independently predict NOAF. This may be useful to risk-stratify HF patients at risk for AF.

/pdf/prognostic-impact-and-predictors-of-new-onset-atrial-1hch3ogb.pdf

Prognostic Impact and Predictors of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure

Correcting video-based eye tracking signals for pupil size artifacts

Perceptual Learning During Evidence on an Oculomotor Decision Variable The Relative Influences of Priors and Sensory

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