Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. 10. Diagram showing the GMTED2010 layer extents (minimum and maximum latitude and longitude) are a result of the coordinate system inherited from the 1-arc-second SRTM

Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010)

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones.

/pdf/the-future-of-midlatitude-cyclones-1slva8uds9.pdf

The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a novel approach to overcome this problem, using the statistical model STORM to generate 10,000 years of synthetic TCs under past (1980–2017) and future climate (SSP585; 2015–2050) conditions from an ensemble of four high-resolution climate models. We then derive high-resolution (10-km) wind speed return period maps up to 1000 years to assess local-scale changes in wind speed probabilities. Our results indicate that the probability of intense TCs, on average, more than doubles in all regions except for the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico. Our unique and innovative methodology enables globally consistent comparison of TC risk in both time and space and can be easily adapted to accommodate alternative climate scenarios and time periods.

A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk

. A novel approach to modelling the surface wind field of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. The modelling system simulates the
evolution of the low-level wind fields of landfalling TCs, accounting for terrain effects. A two-step process models the gradient-level wind field
using a parametric wind field model fitted to TC track data and then brings the winds down to the surface using a numerical boundary layer model. The
physical wind response to variable surface drag and terrain height produces substantial local modifications to the smooth wind field provided by the
parametric wind profile model. For a set of US historical landfalling TCs the accuracy of the simulated footprints compares favourably with
contemporary modelling approaches. The model is applicable from single-event simulation to the generation of global catalogues. One application
demonstrated here is the creation of a dataset of 714 global historical TC overland wind footprints. A preliminary analysis of this dataset shows
regional variability in the inland wind speed decay rates and evidence of a strong influence of regional orography. This dataset can be used to
advance our understanding of overland wind risk in regions of complex terrain and support wind risk assessments in regions of sparse historical
data.

/pdf/modelling-global-tropical-cyclone-wind-footprints-1a38e768i4.pdf

Modelling Global Tropical Cyclone Wind Footprints

A coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model is used to investigate the sensitivity of surface wind speed and significant wave height to ocean temperature for idealized tropical cyclones (TCs). More intense and larger TCs, with higher waves, form when ocean temperature is increased. The maximum significant wave height increases more than the maximum wind speed for TCs up to hurricane force wind. However, above hurricane force wind the change in maximum wind speed is similar or greater than the change in maximum significant wave height. This can be explained by the wind drag coefficient decreasing as wind speed exceeds hurricane force wind, so that the growth of waves is dampened. The areal footprint of wave height grows considerably more than the maximum as ocean temperature is increased. This suggests a large increase in the surface area of damaging waves generated by TCs may be the dominant impact of a future warmer ocean.

Modeled dependence of wind and waves on ocean temperature in tropical cyclones

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015JD024286

The dependence of precipitation and its footprint on atmospheric temperature in idealized extratropical cyclones

Idealised and regional modelling study on cyclones' sensitivity to temperature

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014GL061721

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Modelling Global Tropical Cyclone Wind Footprints

Modeled dependence of wind and waves on ocean temperature in tropical cyclones

The dependence of precipitation and its footprint on atmospheric temperature in idealized extratropical cyclones

Idealised and regional modelling study on cyclones' sensitivity to temperature

Modeled dependence of wind and waves on ocean temperature in tropical cyclones