An important yet still not well documented aspect of recent changes in the Arctic Ocean is associated with the advection of anomalous sub-Arctic Atlantic- and Pacific-origin waters and biota into the polar basins, a process which we refer to as borealization. Using a 37-year archive of observations (1981-2017) we demonstrate dramatically contrasting regional responses to atlantification (that part of borealization related to progression of anomalies from the Atlantic sector of sub-Arctic seas into the Arctic Ocean) and pacification (the counterpart of atlantification associated with influx of anomalous Pacific waters). Particularly, we show strong salinification of the upper Eurasian Basin since 2000, with attendant reductions in stratification, and potentially altered nutrient fluxes and primary production. These changes are closely related to upstream conditions. In contrast, pacification is strongly manifested in the Amerasian Basin by the anomalous influx of Pacific waters, creating conditions favorable for increased heat and freshwater content in the Beaufort Gyre halocline and expansion of Pacific species into the Arctic interior. Here, changes in the upper (overlying) layers are driven by local Arctic atmospheric processes resulting in stronger wind/ice/ocean coupling, increased convergence within the Beaufort Gyre, a thickening of the fresh surface layer, and a deepening of the nutricline and deep chlorophyll maximum. Thus, a divergent (Eurasian Basin) gyre responds altogether differently than does a convergent (Amerasian Basin) gyre to climate forcing. Available geochemical data indicate a general decrease in nutrient concentrations Arctic-wide, except in the northern portions of the Makarov and Amundsen Basins and northern Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin. Thus, changes in the circulation pathways of specific water masses, as well as the utilization of nutrients in upstream regions, may control the availability of nutrients in the Arctic Ocean. Model-based evaluation of the trajectory of the Arctic climate system into the future suggests that Arctic borealization will continue under scenarios of global warming. Results from this synthesis further our understanding of the Arctic Ocean's complex and sometimes non-intuitive Arctic response to climate forcing by identifying new feedbacks in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system in which borealization plays a key role.

/pdf/borealization-of-the-arctic-ocean-in-response-to-anomalous-4zkddnx6f6.pdf

Borealization of the Arctic Ocean in response to anomalous advection from sub-Arctic seas.

Survey data from the northern Bering and Chukchi sea continental shelves in August–September 2012 and 2013 reveal inter-annual differences in the spatial structure of water masses along with statistically significant differences in thermohaline properties, chemical properties, and phytoplankton communities. We provide a set of water mass definitions applicable to the northern Bering and Chukchi continental shelves, and we find that the near-bottom Bering-Chukchi Summer Water (BCSW) was more saline in 2012 and Alaskan Coastal Water (ACW) was warmer in 2013. Both of these water masses carried higher nutrient concentrations in 2012, supporting a larger chlorophyll a biomass that was comprised primarily of small (

/pdf/a-comparison-between-late-summer-2012-and-2013-water-masses-e7ox6qkd0g.pdf

A comparison between late summer 2012 and 2013 water masses, macronutrients, and phytoplankton standing crops in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

/pdf/climate-vulnerability-assessment-for-pacific-salmon-and-3wgngcglez.pdf

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Advection in polar and sub-polar environments: Impacts on high latitude marine ecosystems

http://cooperisland.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Change_in_Beaufort_Sea_Ecosystem_Article.pdf

Change in the Beaufort Sea ecosystem: Diverging trends in body condition and/or production in five marine vertebrate species

Fish communities across a spectrum of habitats in the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea

Arctic and alpine rare plant species populate wave-splashed rocky shorelines of Isle Royale National Park, where summer temperatures are moderated by Lake Superior. Using data from the mid-1990s and resurvey data from 1998, 2003, and 2016, we examined trajectories of change in occurrence for 25 species at 28 sites coincident with rising lake levels that followed a period of sustained low levels. We analyzed changes in site occupancy of species individually and by functional, geographic, and microhabitat groupings. We also assessed change in population structure for four focal species: Saxifraga paniculata, S. tricuspidata, Pinguicula vulgaris, and Vaccinium uliginosum. Of the 25 species, site occupancy increased for 13 and remained steady for six, declining in another six. Site occupancy did not change over time within functional, geographic, and microhabitat groupings. The four focal species showed similar dynamic and systematically changing populations, responding to similar ecological exposures. We hypothesize that the moderating influence of Lake Superior on air temperature benefits these populations despite warming temperatures and a 15-year sustained low water period. This work contributes to our understanding of the responses of at-risk species to extreme climate events.

Arctic and alpine rare plant population dynamics at Isle Royale National Park: Response to changing lake levels

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Fish communities across a spectrum of habitats in the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea

Arctic and alpine rare plant population dynamics at Isle Royale National Park: Response to changing lake levels