https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6.pdf?code=lancet-site

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate ...

/pdf/tropical-cyclones-and-climate-change-assessment-part-ii-2j123woqye.pdf

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming

Climate change threatens the objective of eradicating poverty. Poor people and poor countries are already vulnerable to all types of climate-related shocks—natural disasters that destroy assets and livelihoods; water borne diseases and pests that becomemore prevalent during heat waves, floods, or droughts; crop failure from reduced rainfall; andspikes in food prices that follow extreme weather events. Such shocks can erase decades ofhard work and leave people with irreversible human and physical losses. Changes in climateconditions caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will worsen these shocks and slow down poverty reduction. The good news is that, at least until 2030, “good development” can prevent most of these impacts. By “good development,” we mean development that is rapid, inclusive, and climate informed; includes strong social safety nets and universal health coverage; and iscomplemented with targeted adaptation interventions such as heat-tolerant crops and early warning systems. Absent such good development, many people will still be living in or closeto extreme poverty in 2030, with few resources to cope with climate shocks and adapt to longterm trends, and climate change could increase extreme poverty by more than 100 million people by 2030. In the longer run, beyond 2030, our ability to adapt to unabated climate change is limited. To keep the longer-term impacts on poverty in check, immediate emissions-reduction policiesare needed that bring emissions to zero by the end of the 21st century. These policies neednot threaten short-term progress on poverty reduction—provided they are well designed andinternational support is available for poor countries.Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be unprecedented global achievements.But neither can be attained without the other: they need to be designed and implementedas an integrated strategy. Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. The book provides guidance on how to design climate policies so they contribute to poverty reduction, and on how to design poverty reduction policies so they contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building.

Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.380

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events

Mean summer temperature in Eastern China has increased by 082 °C since the 1950s and five of the hottest summers have occurred since 2000 This study estimates anthropogenic influence to have caused a greater than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of extreme summer heat and projects that hot summers will continue to increase in frequency

Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China

Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite different methodologies, of 12 extreme events that occurred in 2012. In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events, the high temperatures in the United States, the record low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in northern Europe and eastern Australia, provide an opportunity to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies. The differences also provide insights into the structural uncertainty of event attribution, that is, the uncertainty that arises directly from the differences in analysis methodology. In these cases, there was considerable agreement between the different assessments of the same event. However, different events had very different causes. Approximately half the analyses found some evidence that anthropogenically caused climate change was a contributing factor to the extreme event examined, though the effects of natural fluctuations of weather and climate on the evolution of many of the extreme events played key roles as well.

/pdf/explaining-extreme-events-of-2012-from-a-climate-perspective-4uzpr3oned.pdf

Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective

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Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective