Introducción: Seguir la evolución del COVID-19 ha sido esencial para la toma de decisiones sanitarias. Pero ello requiere de cifras fiables de los infectados, muertos y hospitalizados, muchas veces complicadas de tener por múltiples razones. El uso de técnicas de estimación rápidas y fiables, como las encuestas indirectas, es una opción. Objetivos: Presentar el proyecto CoronaSurveys, el cual monitorea el COVID-19 combinando encuestas indirectas con el método de ampliación de red (Network Scale-up Method, NSUM). Metodología: El sistema usa encuestas anónimas indirectas en línea para consultar sobre el COVID-19, y el método NSUM para estimar los casos. Las encuestas están en múltiples idiomas con preguntas para rastrear los casos activos, nuevos y de muertes, entre otros. Resultados: CoronaSurveys está operando desde marzo de 2020, y sigue recopilando datos, con más de cien mil respuestas en la actualidad (millones de muestras). El sistema ha hecho buenas estimaciones para España y el Reino Unido, entre otros países. Conclusión: Este sistema es adecuado en países con infraestructura sanitaria limitada o en situaciones de desconocimiento de la pandemia, como al inicio del COVID-19, porque su coste de implementación es pequeño, requiere dispositivos simples para usarlo, y de pocos participantes para obtener buenas estimaciones.

Coronasurveys: encuestas indirectas en línea para monitorizar la evolución del COVID- 19

In this work we estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in China using online indirect surveys (which preserve the privacy of the participants). The indirect surveys deployed collect data on the incidence of COVID-19, asking the participants about the number of cases, deaths, vaccinated, and hospitalized that they know. The incidence of COVID-19 (cases, deaths, etc.) is then estimated using a modified Network Scale-up Method (NSUM). Survey responses (100, 200 and 1,000, respectively) were collected from Australia, the UK, and China in January 2023. The estimates in Australia and the UK are compared with official data, showing that they are in the confidence intervals or rather close. Cronbach's alpha values also indicate good confidence in the estimates. The estimates obtained in China are, among others, that 91% of the population is vaccinated, almost 80% had been infected in the last month, and almost 3% in the last 24 hours.

/pdf/a-snapshot-of-covid-19-incidence-hospitalizations-and-1dwknzcs.pdf

A Snapshot of COVID-19 Incidence, Hospitalizations, and Mortality from Indirect Survey Data in China in January 2023

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A Snapshot of COVID-19 Incidence, Hospitalizations, and Mortality from Indirect Survey Data in China in January 2023