Sea level change during the Quaternary is primarily a consequence of the cyclic growth and decay of ice sheets, resulting in a complex spatial and temporal pattern. Observations of this variability provide constraints on the timing, rates, and magnitudes of the changes in ice mass during a glacial cycle, as well as more limited information on the distribution of ice between the major ice sheets at any time. Observations of glacially induced sea level changes also provide information on the response of the mantle to surface loading on time scales of 10 3 to 10 5 years. Regional analyses indicate that the earth-response function is depth dependent as well as spatially variable. Comprehensive models of sea level change enable the migration of coastlines to be predicted during glacial cycles, including the anthropologically important period from about 60,000 to 20,000 years ago.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/292/5517/679.full.pdf

Sea Level Change Through the Last Glacial Cycle

The oceans are warming. Over the period 1961 to 2003,
global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10°C from the
surface to a depth of 700 m. Consistent with the Third
Assessment Report (TAR), global ocean heat content (0–
3,000 m) has increased during the same period, equivalent
to absorbing energy at a rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 W m–2 globally
averaged over the Earth’s surface. Two-thirds of this energy
is absorbed between the surface and a depth of 700 m.
Global ocean heat content observations show considerable
interannual and inter-decadal variability superimposed on
the longer-term trend. Relative to 1961 to 2003, the period
1993 to 2003 has high rates of warming but since 2003
there has been some cooling.

Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

Morphodynamics of Holocene salt marshes: a review sketch from the Atlantic and Southern North Sea coasts of Europe

Global sea level is an indicator of climate change, as it is sensitive to both thermal expansion of the oceans and a reduction of land-based glaciers. Global sea-level rise has been estimated by correcting observations from tide gauges for glacial isostatic adjustment--the continuing sea-level response due to melting of Late Pleistocene ice--and by computing the global mean of these residual trends. In such analyses, spatial patterns of sea-level rise are assumed to be signals that will average out over geographically distributed tide-gauge data. But a long history of modelling studies has demonstrated that non-uniform--that is, non-eustatic--sea-level redistributions can be produced by variations in the volume of the polar ice sheets. Here we present numerical predictions of gravitationally consistent patterns of sea-level change following variations in either the Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets or the melting of a suite of small mountain glaciers. These predictions are characterized by geometrically distinct patterns that reconcile spatial variations in previously published sea-level records. Under the--albeit coarse--assumption of a globally uniform thermal expansion of the oceans, our approach suggests melting of the Greenland ice complex over the last century equivalent to -0.6 mm yr(-1) of sea-level rise.

Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change

Analysis of more than 1200 radiocarbon dated samples that constrain relative sea-levels in Great Britain over the past 16 000 yr provides estimates of current land-level changes (negative of relative sea-level change). Maximum relative land uplift occurs in central and western Scotland, ca. 1.6 mm yr-1, and maximum subsidence is in southwest England, ca. 1.2 mm yr-1. Sediment consolidation, arising from autocompaction as the sediment accumulates and from land drainage, increases the subsidence in areas with thick sequences of Holocene sediments, with an average effect equivalent to at least an extra ca. 0.2 mm yr-1 land subsidence, but more in parts of southeast England, 0.5-1.1 mm yr-1. Modelled changes in tidal range during the mid- to late Holocene in eastern England suggest that the calculated rate of land subsidence is overestimated unless such changes are quantified. The effect is most significant for large coastal lowlands, the Fenland and Humber (ca. 0.5 and 0.6 mm yr-1), that were tidal embayments during the mid- to late Holocene.

Holocene land- and sea-level changes in Great Britain

SUMMARY This report presents an up-to-date review of the British Isles (BI) Mean Sea Level (MSL) data set obtained from tide gauges, and of the long-term secular trends in BI MSL. The data are of mixed quality, and not as copious as one would like for scientific analysis given the complexity of long-term sea and land level changes around BI coasts. Nevertheless, the small number of very long records can be studied eVectively, and indicate that twentieth century secular trends in BI MSL are consistent with those obtained from NW Europe as a whole and with the bottom range of estimates for global average MSL change during the past 100 years. Century-timescale low-frequency ‘accelerations’ in MSL of the order of 0.4‐0.8 mm yr’1 century’1 are obtained from the three longest records, which are also similar to estimates from mainland Europe. ‘Sea level indices’ for the BI are constructed which can provide responsible agencies with a guide to the ‘average state’ of BI sea level. Combined ocean tide and storm surge (‘tide+surge’) numerical modelling is demonstrated to be a valuable tool in understanding part of the variability of MSL around the BI, although modelling of long-term changes is limited at present by the lack of adequate meteorological data sets from before 1955. Nevertheless, it is shown that, even if a complete meteorological modelling data set were available, it would not be able to account for all of the MSL variability. Finally, recommendations are made for the development of tide gauge and Global Positioning System (GPS) recording in the BI for the purpose of long-term MSL monitoring in the next century.

/pdf/a-review-of-the-trends-observed-in-british-isles-mean-sea-2v8khz4wf5.pdf

A review of the trends observed in British Isles mean sea level data measured by tide gauges

Abstract Analysis of cores collected from Late Devensian (Weichselian) and Holocene sediments on the floor of the North Sea provides evidence of the transgression of freshwater environments during relative sea-level rise. Although many cores show truncated sequences, examples from the Dogger Bank, Well Bank and 5 km offshore of north Norfolk reveal transitional sequences and reliable indicators of past shoreline positions. Together with radiocarbon-dated sea-level index points collected from the Holocene sediments of the estuaries and coastal lowlands of eastern England these data enable the development and testing of models of the palaeogeographies of coastlines in the western North Sea and models of tidal range changes through the Holocene epoch. Geophysical models that incorporate ice-sheet reconstructions, earth rheology, eustasy, and glacio- and hydroisostasy provide predictions of sea-level relative to the present for the last 10 ka at 1-ka intervals. These predictions, added to a model of present-day bathymetry, produce palaeogeographic reconstructions for each time period. The palaeogeographic maps reveal the transgression of the North Sea continental shelf. Key stages include a western embayment off northeast England as early as 10 ka bp; the evolution of a large tidal embayment between eastern England and the Dogger Bank before 9 ka bp with connection to the English Channel prior to 8 ka bp; and Dogger Bank as an island at high tide by 7.5 ka bp and totally submerged by 6 ka bp. Analysis of core data shows that coastal and saltmarsh environments could adapt to rapid rates of sea-level rise and coastline retreat. After 6 ka bp the major changes in palaeogeography occurred inland of the present coast of eastern England. The palaeogeographic models provide the coastline positions and bathymetries for modelling tidal ranges at each 1-ka interval. A nested hierarchy of models, from the scale of the northeast Atlantic to the east coast of England, uses 26 tidal harmonics to reconstruct tidal regimes. Predictions consistently show tidal ranges smaller than present in the early Holocene, with only minor changes since 6 ka bp. Recalibration of previously available sea-level index points using the model results rather than present tidal-range parameters increases the difference between observations and predictions of relative sea-levels from the glacio-hydro-isostatic models and reinforces the need to search for better ice-sheet reconstructions.

Modelling western North Sea palaeogeographies and tidal changes during the Holocene

Integration of shelf evolution and river basin models to simulate Holocene sediment dynamics of the Humber Estuary during periods of sea-level change and variations in catchment sediment supply.

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A review of the trends observed in British Isles mean sea level data measured by tide gauges

Modelling western North Sea palaeogeographies and tidal changes during the Holocene

Integration of shelf evolution and river basin models to simulate Holocene sediment dynamics of the Humber Estuary during periods of sea-level change and variations in catchment sediment supply.