In this paper we summarize our recently-published work on estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration for shallow earthquakes in western North America. Although none of the sets of coefficients given here for the equations are new, for the convenience of the reader and in keeping with the style of this special issue, we provide tables for estimating random horizontal-component peak acceleration and 5 percent damped pseudo-acceleration response spectra in terms of the natural, rather than common, logarithm of the ground-motion parameter. The equations give ground motion in terms of moment magnitude, distance, and site conditions for strike-slip, reverse-slip, or unspecified faulting mechanisms. Site conditions are represented by the shear velocity averaged over the upper 30 m, and recommended values of average shear velocity are given for typical rock and soil sites and for site categories used in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program's recommended seismic code provisions. In addition, we stipulate more restrictive ranges of magnitude and distance for the use of our equations than in our previous publications. Finally, we provide tables of input parameters that include a few corrections to site classifications and earthquake magnitude (the corrections made a small enough difference in the ground-motion predictions that we chose not to change the coefficients of the prediction equations).

Equations for Estimating Horizontal Response Spectra and Peak Acceleration from Western North American Earthquakes: A Summary of Recent Work

We present a model for estimating horizontal ground motion amplitudes caused by shallow crustal earthquakes occurring in active tectonic environments. The model provides predictive relationships for the orientation-independent average horizontal component of ground motions. Relationships are provided for peak acceleration, peak velocity, and 5-percent damped pseudo-spectral acceleration for spectral periods of 0.01 to 10 seconds. The model represents an update of the relationships developed by Sadigh et. al. (1997) and incorporates improved magnitude and distance scaling forms as well as hanging-wall effects. Site effects are represented by smooth functions of average shear wave velocity of the upper 30 m (VS30) and sediment depth. The new model predicts median ground motion that is similar to Sadigh et. al. (1997) at short spectral period, but lower ground motions at longer periods. The new model produces slightly lower ground motions in the distance range of 10 to 50 km and larger ground motion...

An NGA Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra

Many aspects of earthquake mechanics remain an enigma as we enter the closing years of the twentieth century. One potential bright spot is the realization that simple calculations of stress changes may explain some earthquake interactions, just as previous and on going studies of stress changes have begun to explain human-induced seismicity. This paper, which introduces the special section “Stress Triggers, Stress Shadows, and Implications for Seismic Hazard,” reviews many published works and presents a compilation of quantitative earthquake interaction studies from a stress change perspective. This synthesis supplies some clues about certain aspects of earthquake mechanics. It also demonstrates that much work remains before we can understand the complete story of how earthquakes work.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/98JB01576

Introduction to Special Section: Stress Triggers, Stress Shadows, and Implications for Seismic Hazard

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5≤ M ≤7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ≥7.5 and to 4.5% for M ≥8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ≥8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ≥6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

▪ Abstract We present preliminary evidence for a ∼10,000-year earthquake record from two major fault systems based on sediment cores collected along the continental margins of western North America. New stratigraphic evidence from Cascadia demonstrates that 13 earthquakes ruptured the entire margin from Vancouver Island to at least the California border since the eruption of the Mazama ash 7700 years ago. The 13 events above this prominent stratigraphic marker have an average repeat time of 600 years, and the youngest event ∼300 years ago coincides with the coastal record. We also extend the record of past earthquakes to the base of the Holocene (at least 9800 years ago), during which 18 events correlate along the same region. The sequence of Holocene events in Cascadia appears to contain a repeating pattern of events, a tantalizing first look at what may be the long-term behavior of a major fault system. The northern California margin cores show a cyclic record of turbidite beds that may represent Holoce...

Holocene earthquake records from the cascadia subduction zone and northern san andreas fault based on precise dating of offshore turbidites

The 25 April 1992 magnitude 7.1 Cape Mendocino thrust earthquake demonstrated that the North America-Gorda plate boundary is seismogenic and illustrated hazards that could result from much larger earthquakes forecast for the Cascadia region. The shock occurred just north of the Mendocino Triple Junction and caused strong ground motion and moderate damage in the immediate area. Rupture initiated onshore at a depth of 10.5 kilometers and propagated up-dip and seaward. Slip on steep faults in the Gorda plate generated two magnitude 6.6 aftershocks on 26 April. The main shock did not produce surface rupture on land but caused coastal uplift and a tsunami. The emerging picture of seismicity and faulting at the triple junction suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing significant seismicity.

/pdf/the-cape-mendocino-california-earthquakes-of-april-1992-4i0grx58y3.pdf

The Cape Mendocino, California, Earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the Triple Junction

/pdf/proposed-international-phonetic-conference-to-adopt-a-7xxkyiznm6.pdf

Proposed international phonetic conference to adopt a universal alphabet

Robert Stein writes on the United Nations Water Conference which took place last month.

/pdf/now-an-implementation-problem-dr3ksuoaoj.pdf

Now, an implementation problem

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The Cape Mendocino, California, Earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the Triple Junction

Proposed international phonetic conference to adopt a universal alphabet

Now, an implementation problem