The use of attack messages in political campaign communication has grown in recent years. This investigation posits a strategy of resistance to the influence of attack messages. A total of 341 initial and follow-up treatment interviews and 392 control interviews were completed among potential voters in a U.S. Senate campaign during October 1986. We hypothesized that political campaign messages can be designed to inoculate supporters of candidates against subsequent attack messages of opposing candidates. This prediction was supported. In addition, the results supported the hypothesis that inoculation confers more resistance to subsequent attack messages among strong political party identifiers as opposed to weak identifiers, non-identifiers, and crossovers. The results of this investigation extend the scope of inoculation theory to new domain, and at the same time, suggest a new strategic approach for candidates in political campaigns.

/pdf/inoculation-in-political-campaign-communication-3q06hoger1.pdf

Inoculation in political campaign communication.

Theory: Voters in a primary or caucus are unlikely to invest substantial personal resources in making their choice, but at the same time their choice-problem is complex. A mixed model of choice is presented with two steps: an elimination step that reduces the field of candidates considered seriously by the voter, and an expected-utility step that involves comparisons of the candidates in the reduced "decision set." Hypotheses: Voters use party affiliation, visibility, and viability to narrow the field of candidates. They then compare the expected-utility gains of electing any of the remaining candidates. If no clear preference emerges, voters consider their affect for the candidates and reconsider viability. Methods: We have written a computer algorithm to simulate the decision model for potential caucus and primary voters early in the 1988 nomination campaign. A significant strength of this simulation technique is that it allows us to model choice across all 7 Democratic and 6 Republican candidates. Results: The elimination step has a powerful effect in narrowing the field of candidates for nomination participants. Overall, the model accurately predicts choice across the options voters faced early in the 1988 nomination season.

A Simulation Model of Presidential Nomination Choice

This study employs CBS News-New York Times primary election exit surveys for twenty 1976 presidential primaries to assess the impact of issue preferences upon candidate choice in presidential primaries. Findings indicate that issue-voting was slightly stronger in the 1976 Republican primaries than in the 1976 Democratic primaries, but that issues generally do not predict the outcomes of the 1976 primaries very well. Some consequences of issue-voting (or the absence thereof) for governing are suggested.

Issue Preferences and Candidate Choice in Presidential Primaries

Four correlates of vote choice (issues, ideology, candidate qualities, and electability) are examined separately for each candidate competing in the 1980 presidential primaries. In general, candidate qualities were found to have the most frequent and consistent relationships with vote choice. Issues tended to be uncorrelated with candidate preference. Ideology was associated with vote choice only in the Republican primaries. Electability correlated with vote choice only in primaries held late in the nomination season. These patterns in the correlates of vote choice reflect patterns and changes in the candidates' campaigns.

Correlates of Vote Choice in the 1980 Presidential Primaries

Since 1980, more than 175 scholarly articles, chapters, or books have been published about the post-reform presidential nomination system. Numer ous authors investigate primary rules, media coverage, candidates, voters, or momentum. Less well covered are the subjects of interest groups, win nowing of candidates, campaign contributors, and connections to other phases of the presidency Research on presidential nominations has to con tend with an ever-changing environment as rules change, candidates exit the contests, and the primary season progresses from February through June. This environmental complexity adds to the challenge of investigating the first phase of the presidential selection process. Coupling this environ mental complexity with a lack of consensus among scholars on measure ment, model building, and theory leads to contradictory findings in a number of areas. Nevertheless, much has been learned about the patterns of presidential nominations.

Presidential Nomination Politics in the Post-Reform Era:

Summative, averaging, and elimination by aspects models of choice were applied to voter decisionmaking in the 1972 New Hampshire presidential primary. Predictions were generated from each of the models and compared to election outcome, candidate preference, and reported vote. The summative and elimination by aspects procedures predicted equally well, and both predicted significantly better than the averaging procedure. Candidate personal attributes were identified by the majority of voters as more important dimensions in deciding for whom to vote than candidate issue positions. Primary elections have many interesting features. Turnout is lower than in general elections. The voters are more involved, and tend to differ from participants in general elections in the same ways that general election voters differ from nonvoters (Ranney and Epstein, 1966; Ranney, 1968). In some states, participation is limited to partisans; in others, independents or members of the rival party may participate if they wish. Often more than two candidates compete for a party's nomination, and voters choosing between them lack the familiar guidepost of party identification. Even nonpartisan elections differ from primaries in this last respect, since voters often know the

Voter Decisionmaking in a Primary Election: An Evaluation of Three Models of Choice *

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Voter Decisionmaking in a Primary Election: An Evaluation of Three Models of Choice *