Correlation and correlation-based measures (e.g., the coefficient of determination) have been widely used to evaluate the “goodness-of-fit” of hydrologic and hydroclimatic models. These measures are oversensitive to extreme values (outliers) and are insensitive to additive and proportional differences between model predictions and observations. Because of these limitations, correlation-based measures can indicate that a model is a good predictor, even when it is not. In this paper, useful alternative goodness-of-fit or relative error measures (including the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome many of the limitations of correlation-based measures are discussed. Modifications to these statistics to aid in interpretation are presented. It is concluded that correlation and correlation-based measures should not be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of a hydrologic or hydroclimatic model and that additional evaluation measures (such as summary statistics and absolute error measures) should supplement model evaluation tools.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/1998WR900018

Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” Measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation

http://www.hydrology.bee.cornell.edu/BEE3710Handouts/HuntingtonJHYDRO06.pdf

Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis

General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. What is less clear is the extent to which local (s...

/pdf/downscaling-general-circulation-model-output-a-review-of-2wkqyp0se8.pdf

Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations

A range of different statistical downscaling models was calibrated using both observed and general circulation model (GCM) generated daily precipitation time series and intercompared. The GCM used was the U.K. Meteorological Office, Hadley Centre's coupled ocean/atmosphere model (HadCM2) forced by combined CO2 and sulfate aerosol changes. Climate model results for 1980–1999 (present) and 2080–2099 (future) were used, for six regions across the United States. The downscaling methods compared were different weather generator techniques (the standard “WGEN” method, and a method based on spell-length durations), two different methods using grid point vorticity data as an atmospheric predictor variable (B-Circ and C-Circ), and two variations of an artificial neural network (ANN) transfer function technique using circulation data and circulation plus temperature data as predictor variables. Comparisons of results were facilitated by using standard sets of observed and GCM-derived predictor variables and by using a standard suite of diagnostic statistics. Significant differences in the level of skill were found among the downscaling methods. The weather generation techniques, which are able to fit a number of daily precipitation statistics exactly, yielded the smallest differences between observed and simulated daily precipitation. The ANN methods performed poorly because of a failure to simulate wet-day occurrence statistics adequately. Changes in precipitation between the present and future scenarios produced by the statistical downscaling methods were generally smaller than those produced directly by the GCM. Changes in daily precipitation produced by the GCM between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099 were therefore judged not to be due primarily to changes in atmospheric circulation. In the light of these results and detailed model comparisons, suggestions for future research and model refinements are presented.

/pdf/statistical-downscaling-of-general-circulation-model-output-3mc6vaur3m.pdf

Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods

Global climate change is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns, oceanic and atmospheric circulation, rate of rising sea level, and the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms. The magnitude of these projected physical changes and their subsequent impacts on coastal wetlands will vary regionally. Coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States have naturally evolved under a regime of rising sea level and specific patterns of hurricane frequency, intensity, and timing. A review of known ecological effects of tropical storms and hurricanes indicates that storm timing, frequency, and intensity can alter coastal wetland hydrology, geomorphology, biotic structure, energetics, and nutrient cycling. Research conducted to examine the impacts of Hurricane Hugo on colonial waterbirds highlights the importance of long-term studies for identifying complex interactions that may otherwise be dismissed as stochastic processes.

Rising sea level and even modest changes in the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of tropical storms and hurricanes are expected to have substantial impacts on coastal wetland patterns and processes. Persistence of coastal wetlands will be determined by the interactions of climate and anthropogenic effects, especially how humans respond to rising sea level and how further human encroachment on coastal wetlands affects resource exploitation, pollution, and water use. Long-term changes in the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms will likely affect biotic functions (e.g., community structure, natural selection, extinction rates, and biodiversity) as well as underlying processes such as nutrient cycling and primary and secondary productivity.

Reliable predictions of global-change impacts on coastal wetlands will require better understanding of the linkages among terrestrial, aquatic, wetland, atmospheric, oceanic, and human components. Developing this comprehensive understanding of the ecological ramifications of global change will necessitate close coordination among scientists from multiple disciplines and a balanced mixture of appropriate scientific approaches. For example, insights may be gained through the careful design and implementation of broad-scale comparative studies that incorporate salient patterns and processes, including treatment of anthropogenic influences. Well-designed, broad-scale comparative studies could serve as the scientific framework for developing relevant and focused long-term ecological research, monitoring programs, experiments, and modeling studies. Two conceptual models of broad-scale comparative research for assessing ecological responses to climate change are presented: utilizing space-for-time substitution coupled with long-term studies to assess impacts of rising sea level and disturbance on coastal wetlands, and utilizing the moisture-continuum model for assessing the effects of global change and associated shifts in moisture regimes on wetland ecosystems. Increased understanding of climate change will require concerted scientific efforts aimed at facilitating interdisciplinary research, enhancing data and information management, and developing new funding strategies.

Climate change, hurricanes and tropical storms, and rising sea level in coastal wetlands

The authors analyze 105 yr (1901–2005) of tropical cyclone strikes at 45 coastal locations from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, with the primary objective of examining spatiotemporal patterns of storm activity. Interpretation of the data suggests that geographically, three focal points for activity are evident: south Florida, the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and the north-central Gulf Coast. Temporally, clusters of hyperactivity are evident in south Florida from the 1920s through the 1950s and then again during the most recent years. North Carolina was a region of enhanced activity in the 1950s and again in the 1990s. A more consistent rate of occurrence was found along the north-central Gulf Coast; the last two years, however, were active in this region. Return periods of tropical storm strength systems or greater range from a frequency of once every 2 yr along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, every three years on average in southeast Texas, southeastern Louisiana, and southern Flori...

Spatiotemporal patterns and return periods of tropical storm and hurricane strikes from texas to maine

Standard climatological observations made between 1971 and 1974 at Moisant Airport, New Orleans, have been organized into a calendar of eight synoptic weather types identified from the daily surface weather maps of the United States. The hourly data have been reorganized into tables representing monthly frequencies of weather types, mean properties at 0600 and 1500 CST, and relationships to precipitation. The climatic calendar and associated climatic properties by weather types represent climatic baseline inventories useful for evaluating favorable conditions for activities dependent upon weather such as construction and recreation, local and regional climatic variation by weather type and season, climatic variability through time, and the responses of environmental and biological processes and activities at the earth-atmosphere interface.

A Synoptic Climatology for Environmental Baseline Analysis: New Orleans

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/Spatial.pdf

Spatial and temporal variability of coastal storms in the North Atlantic Basin

A simple model of the average swath of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds to the right and left of storm centers is developed and utilized to evaluate the geographical and temporal distribution of storm strikes at "point locations" along the subtropical coast of the United States. The specific area of study is from South Padre Island, Texas, to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The time of record is 100 years from 1901 through 2000. The analysis illustrates the great geographical variability with high frequencies of tropical storm and hurricane strikes in southeastern Louisiana, southern Florida, and eastern North Carolina. Coastlines with lower frequency strikes are located along the western coastline of the Gulf of Mexico in southern Texas, the northeastern coastline of the Gulf in Florida from near Apalachicola southward to St. Petersburg, and especially along the South Atlantic coast from Daytona Beach, Florida, northward to the vicinity of Charleston, South Carolina. Temporal variability is great and significant, however, and with the exception of the northern Gulf Coast, most coastal sites have experienced pronounced clusters of strikes separated by tens of years with very few strikes. The occurrences of tropical storm and hurricane events over the Gulf of Mexico are related to La Nina, neutral, and EI Nino seasons, but the clusters of strike events and longer runs of seasons with minimal activity cannot be explained on the basis of ENSO indices alone. Our findings have important implications for storm clusters and vulnerability prediction along coasts.

/pdf/a-climatology-of-tropical-storm-and-hurricane-strikes-to-kdatkmtyn2.pdf

A Climatology of Tropical Storm and Hurricane Strikes to Enhance Vulnerability Prediction for the Southeast U.S. Coast

Changing precipitation patterns and their impact on surface water resources is an important climatic problem facing society today, especially as it relates to potential global change. Therefore, this paper analyses temporal variability and trends in the empirical precipitation record and modelled runoff in Louisiana, USA, during the past century. Long-term trends in precipitation were identified and impacts on surface water resources were found. If general circulation model predictions for increasing precipitation in the south-eastern US prove to be correct, surface water will likely increase at a disproportionately higher rate which should be of concern to water resource planners in the region.

Long-term trends of precipitation and runoff in Louisiana, USA

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