The damage caused by the asteroid 17–20 metres in diameter that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013 is estimated here to have an energy equivalent to about 500 kilotons of TNT. The fireball that streaked across the skies above Chelyabinsk in Russia on 15 February 2013 is providing astronomers with a wealth of information. Two papers in this issue present detailed reconstructions of the Chelyabinsk event. From an analysis of videos, Jiři Borovicka et al. determined the trajectory and velocity of the superbolide with high precision. Its orbit was similar to that of the 2-kilometre-diameter asteroid 86039 (1999 NC43), suggesting that the two bodies may be part of the same asteroid family. And they show that it broke into small pieces between the altitudes of 45 and 30 kilometres. In the companion paper, Peter Brown et al. analysed the damage caused by the airburst which they estimate was equivalent in energy to the detonation of 400 to 600 kilotons of TNT. They suggest that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres was an order of magnitude higher than current estimates, shifting much of the residual impact risk to these sizes. Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage1 than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects2. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave3, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain4,5. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique4,5,6 of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations7 based on the effects of nuclear weapons—almost always used with this technique—overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates5,6 near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques8,9. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

/pdf/a-500-kiloton-airburst-over-chelyabinsk-and-an-enhanced-2aupgktrfo.pdf

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

Rayleigh-Taylor and Richtmyer-Meshkov instabilities: A journey through scales

Structural geology of impact craters

The mechanics of large-scale (~10-km diameter) asteroidal, cometary, and meteoroid swarm impact onto a silicate Earth covered by water and a gas layer (atmosphere) demonstrate that only ~ 15% to ~ 5% of the energy of 15 to 45 km/s bolides is taken up directly during the passage through the ocean and atmosphere, respectively. Upon impact with the Earth, ~ 10 to 10^2 times the bolide mass of water or rock can be ejected to the stratosphere: however, only ~0.1 bolide masses is in < 1 μm particles. The vaporized, melted, and (< 1 mm) solid ejecta transfer up to ~40% of their energy to the atmosphere and possibly oceanic surface water, giving rise to a short, possibly lethal (to large animals) heating pulse. The initial high-speed ejecta that lofted to and above the stratosphere early in the cratering flow is enriched in bolide material and has concentrations of extraterrestrial material in the range of those measured (0.01 to 0.2) in the Cretaceous/Tertiary (C/T) boundary layer. We suggest that the origin of the C/T boundary layer is this ejecta, which is heavily shocked and in the < l-μm range and, hence, once entrained in the stratosphere may be spread worldwide. Penetration of the atmosphere by the bolide creates a temporary hole in the atmosphere surrounded by strongly shocked air. The resultant inward and upward flow of the shocked atmosphere backward along the bolide trajectory lofts the vapor, fine-melted and solid ejecta to heights greater than 10 km. The larger, millimeter- to centimetersize, melt droplets that are lofted by this mechanism reenter the atmosphere and may represent microtektites and tektites. Sufficient impact-induced vapor, melted and comminuted silicate is ejected to stratospheric heights to markedly reduce the light levels at the Earth’s surface. The short-term effects of heating, followed by dust and possibly water-cloud deck induced worldwide cooling, provide several mechanisms to cause severe environmental stress to biota and possibly give rise to the varied and massive extinctions that occurred at the C/T boundary.

The interaction of the cretaceous-tertiary extinction bolide with the atmosphere, ocean, and solid earth

Physics of meteor generated shock waves in the Earth’s atmosphere : A review

We have developed a Web-based program for quickly estimating the regional environmental consequences of a comet or asteroid impact on Earth (www.lpl.arizona.edu/ impacteffects). This paper details the observations, assumptions and equations upon which the program is based. It describes our approach to quantifying the principal impact processes that might affect the people, buildings, and landscape in the vicinity of an impact event and discusses the uncertainty in our predictions. The program requires six inputs: impactor diameter, impactor density, impact velocity before atmospheric entry, impact angle, the distance from the impact at which the environmental effects are to be calculated, and the target type (sedimentary rock, crystalline rock, or a water layer above rock). The program includes novel algorithms for estimating the fate of the impactor during atmospheric traverse, the thermal radiation emitted by the impact-generated vapor plume (fireball), and the intensity of seismic shaking. The program also approximates various dimensions of the impact crater and ejecta deposit, as well as estimating the severity of the air blast in both crater-forming and airburst impacts. We illustrate the utility of our program by examining the predicted environmental consequences across the United States of hypothetical impact scenarios occurring in Los Angeles. We find that the most wide-reaching environmental consequence is seismic shaking: both ejecta deposit thickness and air-blast pressure decay much more rapidly with distance than with seismic ground motion. Close to the impact site the most devastating effect is from thermal radiation; however, the curvature of the Earth implies that distant localities are shielded from direct thermal radiation because the fireball is below the horizon.

/pdf/earth-impact-effects-program-a-web-based-computer-program-5dcnlzwcnv.pdf

Earth Impact Effects Program: A Web-based computer program for calculating the regional environmental consequences of a meteoroid impact on Earth

Periodically, stories concerning the possibility of a large extraterrestrial impact on earth enter the mainstream media. During these times, both scientists and non-scientists alike become interested in determining the effects that this impact would cause on earth, often with a particular impact site and distance from impact in mind. For scientists, the trouble with determining these effects is merely the time it would take to find all of the equations and data necessary to calculate the effects. For non-scientists, these calculations are all but impossible. Presently, there is no reliable place where the interested person may obtain a clear and concise summary of the general effects created by an impact on earth. We currently maintain a popular crater diameter calculator online at http://www.lpl.arizona. edu/tekton/crater.html. This program uses scaling laws to derive crater size estimates from impact parameters such as impactor size, velocity and density. The goal of the Earth Impact Effects Program is to provide a similar, easy-to-use web-based program to calculate various pertinent environmental consequences of a given impact event on Earth at a specified distance away. So far, the environmental effects that we have considered are crater size, seismic effects (including Richter magnitude and damage assessment), and the thickness and average fragment size of the ejecta deposit. In the future, we intend to extend the program to include the effects of the shock wave and thermal radiation. In addition, the web page will include a description of our algorithm with citations to the scientific sources used. It is our intention for this program to be useful for not only casual users, but also those who require a deeper understanding of how the results were obtained.

Web-based program for calculating effects of an earth impact.

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Earth Impact Effects Program: A Web-based computer program for calculating the regional environmental consequences of a meteoroid impact on Earth

Web-based program for calculating effects of an earth impact.