The conservation of large carnivores is a formidable challenge for biodiversity conservation. Using a data set on the past and current status of brown bears (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo) in European countries, we show that roughly one-third of mainland Europe hosts at least one large carnivore species, with stable or increasing abundance in most cases in 21st-century records. The reasons for this overall conservation success include protective legislation, supportive public opinion, and a variety of practices making coexistence between large carnivores and people possible. The European situation reveals that large carnivores and people can share the same landscape.

/pdf/recovery-of-large-carnivores-in-europe-s-modern-human-49oq04a76u.pdf

Recovery of large carnivores in Europe’s modern human-dominated landscapes

Rapid climate change is the defining conservation issue of our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly apparent, from drowned coastal marshes and drying prairie potholes to melting glaciers. These climate-driven changes will profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish and wildlife and the habitats on which they depend. Indeed, preparing for and coping with the effects of climate change - an endeavor referred to as climate change adaptation - is emerging as the overarching framework for conservation and natural resource management.

https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2011_glick_p001.pdf

Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Aim The factors that set species range limits underlie many patterns in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation. These factors have been the subject of several reviews, but there has been no systematic review of the causes of warm-edge limits (low elevations and latitudes). Understanding these causes is urgent, given that the factors that set these limits might also drive extinction at warm edges as global climate changes. Many authors have suggested that warm-edge limits are set by biotic factors (particularly competition) whereas others have stressed abiotic factors (particularly temperature). We synthesize the known causes of species’ warm-edge range limits, with emphasis on the underlying mechanisms (proximate causes).

/pdf/causes-of-warm-edge-range-limits-systematic-review-proximate-1n4sbdy2s1.pdf

Causes of warm-edge range limits: Systematic review, proximate factors and implications for climate change

Connectivity has become a top conservation priority in response to landscape fragmentation. Many methods have been developed to identify areas of the landscape with high potential connectivity for wildlife movement. However, each makes different assumptions that may produce different predictions, and few comparative tests against empirical movement data are available. We compared predictive performance of the most-used connectivity models, cost-distance and circuit theory models. We hypothesized that cost-distance would better predict elk migration paths, while circuit theory would better predict wolverine dispersal paths, due to alignment of the methods’ assumptions with the movement ecology of each process. We used each model to predict elk migration paths and wolverine dispersal paths in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, then used telemetry data collected from actual movements to assess predictive performance. Methods for validating connectivity models against empirical data have not been standardized, thus we applied and compared four alternative methods. Our findings generally supported our hypotheses. Circuit theory models consistently predicted wolverine dispersal paths better than cost-distance, though cost-distance models predicted elk migration paths only slightly better than circuit theory. In most cases, our four validation methods supported similar conclusions, but provided complementary perspectives. We reiterate suggestions that alignment of connectivity model assumptions with focal species movement ecology is an important consideration when selecting a modeling approach for conservation practice. Additional comparative tests are needed to better understand how relative model performance may vary across species, movement processes, and landscapes, and what this means for effective connectivity conservation.

/pdf/connecting-models-to-movements-testing-connectivity-model-4n5cxxm4mo.pdf

Connecting models to movements: testing connectivity model predictions against empirical migration and dispersal data

Boreal species sensitive to the timing and duration of snow cover are particularly vulnerable to global climate change. Recent work has shown a link between wolverine (Gulo gulo) habitat and persistent spring snow cover through 15 May, the approximate end of the wolverine's reproductive denning period. We modeled the distribution of snow cover within the Columbia, Upper Missouri, and Upper Colorado River Basins using a downscaled ensemble climate model. The ensemble model was based on the arithmetic mean of 10 global climate models (GCMs) that best fit historical climate trends and patterns within these three basins. Snow cover was estimated from resulting downscaled temperature and precipitation patterns using a hydrologic model. We bracketed our ensemble model predictions by analyzing warm (miroc 3.2) and cool (pcm1) downscaled GCMs. Because Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based snow cover relationships were analyzed at much finer grain than downscaled GCM output, we conducted a second analysis based on MODIS-based snow cover that persisted through 29 May, simulating the onset of spring two weeks earlier in the year. Based on the downscaled ensemble model, 67% of predicted spring snow cover will persist within the study area through 2030-2059, and 37% through 2070-2099. Estimated snow cover for the ensemble model during the period 2070- 2099 was similar to persistent MODIS snow cover through 29 May. Losses in snow cover were greatest at the southern periphery of the study area (Oregon, Utah, and New Mexico, USA) and least in British Columbia, Canada. Contiguous areas of spring snow cover become smaller and more isolated over time, but large (.1000 km 2 ) contiguous areas of wolverine habitat are predicted to persist within the study area throughout the 21st century for all projections. Areas that retain snow cover throughout the 21st century are British Columbia, north-central Washington, northwestern Montana, and the Greater Yellowstone Area. By the late 21st century, dispersal modeling indicates that habitat isolation at or above levels associated with genetic isolation of wolverine populations becomes widespread. Overall, we expect wolverine habitat to persist throughout the species range at least for the first half of the 21st century, but populations will likely become smaller and more isolated.

/pdf/climate-change-predicted-to-shift-wolverine-distributions-4aibus37pp.pdf

Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors

We propose a fundamental geographic distribution for the wolverine (Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) based on the hypothesis that the occurrence of wolverines is constrained by their obligate association with...

https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2010_copeland_j001.pdf

The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine (Gulo gulo): do climatic constraints limit its geographic distribution?

/pdf/wolverine-population-assessment-in-glacier-national-park-6or0m4vhom.pdf

Wolverine Population Assessment in Glacier National Park

Field work began in summer 2002 with selection of wolverine (Gulo gulo) trap sites and trap building at 7 locations on the eastern front of Glacier National Park, located along the Continental Divide in northwestern Montana. Study area and trap locations were selected by reviewing historical park sighting and track information. Field work continued into the fall with completion of log box traps, hiring of technicians, and logistical preparations (housing, food, firewood, bait, and equipment) in portions of the study area with limited winter access. Prebaiting of traps began on 17 December 2002 and trapping commenced on 22 January 2003, with 4 traps set in the Many Glacier Valley. The first wolverine capture occurred on 26 January. A total of 6 wolverine (3 male & 3 female) were captured between 26 January and 8 April, all in the Many Glacier Valley. Traps at Lee Creek and Two Medicine were not set and a single trap at Cut Bank Creek did not capture a wolverine. All captured wolverine were instrumented with intraperitoneal VHF transmitters. ARGOS/GPS satellite collars were also fitted on 4 individuals, but only functioned for several weeks. One individual removed its collar. Morphometric data, blood, and tissue samples were also collected. Male weights averaged 12.87 kg (n=3) and females 8.97 kg(n=3). Study animals were relocated by ground triangulation and via aerial monitoring. Two adult females were found pregnant at their initial capture but only one of these produced kits.

/pdf/wolverine-population-assessment-in-glacier-national-park-3gcg0sguur.pdf

Wolverine Population Assessment in Glacier National Park, Montana

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The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine (Gulo gulo): do climatic constraints limit its geographic distribution?

Wolverine Population Assessment in Glacier National Park

Wolverine Population Assessment in Glacier National Park, Montana