The psychological principles that govern the perception of decision problems and the evaluation of probabilities and outcomes produce predictable shifts of preference when the same problem is framed in different ways. Reversals of preference are demonstrated in choices regarding monetary outcomes, both hypothetical and real, and in questions pertaining to the loss of human lives. The effects of frames on preferences are compared to the effects of perspectives on perceptual appearance. The dependence of preferences on the formulation of decision problems is a significant concern for the theory of rational choice.

/pdf/the-framing-of-decisions-and-the-psychology-of-choice-v0lj39qgmd.pdf

The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice

Using a sample free of survivor bias, I demonstrate that common factors in stock returns and investment expenses almost completely explain persistence in equity mutual funds' mean and risk-adjusted returns Hendricks, Patel and Zeckhauser's (1993) "hot hands" result is mostly driven by the one-year momentum effect of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), but individual funds do not earn higher returns from following the momentum strategy in stocks The only significant persistence not explained is concentrated in strong underperformance by the worst-return mutual funds The results do not support the existence of skilled or informed mutual fund portfolio managers PERSISTENCE IN MUTUAL FUND performance does not reflect superior stock-picking skill Rather, common factors in stock returns and persistent differences in mutual fund expenses and transaction costs explain almost all of the predictability in mutual fund returns Only the strong, persistent underperformance by the worst-return mutual funds remains anomalous Mutual fund persistence is well documented in the finance literature, but not well explained Hendricks, Patel, and Zeckhauser (1993), Goetzmann and Ibbotson (1994), Brown and Goetzmann (1995), and Wermers (1996) find evidence of persistence in mutual fund performance over short-term horizons of one to three years, and attribute the persistence to "hot hands" or common investment strategies Grinblatt and Titman (1992), Elton, Gruber, Das, and Hlavka (1993), and Elton, Gruber, Das, and Blake (1996) document mutual fund return predictability over longer horizons of five to ten years, and attribute this to manager differential information or stock-picking talent Contrary evidence comes from Jensen (1969), who does not find that good subsequent performance follows good past performance Carhart (1992) shows that persistence in expense ratios drives much of the long-term persistence in mutual fund performance My analysis indicates that Jegadeesh and Titman's (1993) one-year momentum in stock returns accounts for Hendricks, Patel, and Zeckhauser's (1993) hot hands effect in mutual fund performance However, funds that earn higher

/pdf/on-persistence-in-mutual-fund-performance-hff1y6xdm1.pdf

On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Agency theory is an important, yet controversial, theory. This paper reviews agency theory, its contributions to organization theory, and the extant empirical work and develops testable propositions. The conclusions are that agency theory (a) offers unique insight into information systems, outcome uncertainty, incentives, and risk and (b) is an empirically valid perspective, particularly when coupled with complementary perspectives. The principal recommendation is to incorporate an agency perspective in studies of the many problems having a cooperative structure.

http://strategy.sjsu.edu/www.stable/pdf/Eisenhardt,%20K.%20M.,%201989,%20The%20Academy%20of%20Management%20Review%2014(1)%2057-74.pdf

Agency Theory: An Assessment and Review

This paper attempts to explain how the separation of security ownership and control, typical of large corporations, can be an efficient form of economic organization. We first set aside the presumption that a corporation has owners in any meaningful sense. The entrepreneur is also laid to rest, at least for the purposes of the large modern corporation. The two functions usually attributed to the entrepreneur--management and risk bearing--are treated as naturally separate factors within the set of contracts called a firm. The firm is disciplined by competition from other firms, which forces the evolution of devides for efficiently monitoring the performance of the entire team and of its individual members. Individual participants in the firm, and in particular its managers, face both the discipline and opportunities provided by the markets for their services, both within and outside the firm.

/pdf/agency-problems-and-the-theory-of-the-firm-42slaadz42.pdf

Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F3343168.pdf

Development as Freedom

This paper identifies a novel function for permits: they can be used by the government as an instrument to elicit information about the intentions of private investors to put capital into an area. Such information is a crucial input for the government's decision on how much infrastructure to build in an area, such as the capacity of an elementary school or a public transit system in an expanding community. Decisions on infrastructure that protects against natural disasters require precisely this information. For example, a levee should be built higher and stronger the more capital it will protect. Current experience in New Orleans makes this evident, particularly given the considerable uncertainties about the private sector's intention of returning to or investing in areas at risk. Permits can replace unreliable "cheap talk" elicitation devices, such as surveys or town meetings, and can be used as an input into prediction or futures markets. An important innovation in our procedure is to use markets to elicit information separately from hedgers (the investors in our model) and speculators.

Permits to Elicit Information

Souring the Status Quo

Both for calculating probabilities and considering patient preferences, economics can provide useful analytic tools for those making decisions about risky treatments. For probabilities, integrated and absolute numbers should be preferred to partial and relative ones. Preferences become particularly important in cases where no treatment shows an equal or higher probability for all groups of better outcomes, or for cases where patients’ values regarding outcomes can be expected to differ. Moreover, preferences can take account of more than just outcomes themselves; tradeoffs between the short- and long-term, as well as tolerance for risk and anxiety, may also be important. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seminar article Probabilities and preferences: What economics can teach doctors and patients making difficult treatment decisions

We need effective “agency” (meaning experts faithfully helping those they are supposed to assist) for individuals making a critical but unusual decision, such as picking investments for their retirement nest egg. Effective agency, however, must be more than a mere matter of establishing a choice of defaults, or removing choices altogether. Consider retirees who are deciding how to structure their retirement income. Evidence shows that older people who are involved in making their own decisions do better in life. Given that quality of life should be our concern, and not just retirement security, we should want to get older people more involved in the financial decisions that affect them, not less.

Effective Agency, Individual Involvement, and Default Choices

Nonprofit charities and foundations hold endowments and many other kinds of investments. How do these investments perform? Some high-profile nonprofit endowments, including those of colleges and universities, have been studied previously. This study is the first, to our knowledge, that looks at a large number of the diverse types of nonprofits. We investigate the determinants of investment performance using a large panel data set culled from the 990 forms that nonprofits must file annually with the IRS. In this first part of our article, we discuss our approach and the challenges of using these data to infer investment returns. The IRS data, though less than perfect, yield valuable measures of the investment returns of nonprofits. They reveal that some charities consistently do better in their investment returns than do others.

Th e Investment Returns of Nonprofi t Organizations, Part I

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