RANCOM: A novel approach to identifying criteria relevance based on inaccuracy expert judgments

Maritime accident research has primarily focused on characteristics and risk analysis, which often overlooks the evolution of the associated risk patterns over time. This study aims to investigate the dynamic changes in maritime accidents from 2012 to 2021 by employing a data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) model and conducting a systematic dynamic pattern comparison. It presents two-stage models for two databases and five models against different timeframes to capture the evolving characteristics of global maritime accidents. Furthermore, within the context of the accident investigation, this study pioneers the analysis of the effectiveness of two network structures, namely a layered BN model and a Tree-Augmented Naive Bayesian (TAN) network, in terms of the accuracy of predicting the accident severity. The key findings regarding the changes in maritime accidents in the past decade include: (1) a significant rise in maritime risks linked to large ships (30.8%), port areas (11.67%), anchoring (11.82%), and manoeuvering operations (3.8%); (2) a connection between poor anchoring practices on fishing boats and 'overboard' accidents, and between inadequate equipment on tankers or chemical ships and 'fire/explosion' accidents; (3) the TAN model's superior performance in forecasting accident severity compared to the layered BN model; and (4) the probability of 'very serious' accidents in terms of ship-related factors is 74.7%, which is for the layered BN network, significantly lower than the TAN network's 99.4%. This study reveals shifts in accident patterns over time and underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and analysis for effective safety and risk management. 

Dynamic evolution of maritime accidents: Comparative analysis through data-driven Bayesian Networks

The increased number, speed, and size of ships leads to an increased risk of accidents in ports with restricted navigational areas. A comprehensive risk assessment is required to understand the causal mechanisms involved in accidents. This study investigated the factors causing allision accidents that occurred during ship manoeuvres in the port areas. Nonconformities obtained from 112 allision accident reports were classified qualitatively with the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System for Passenger Vessel Accidents (HFACS-PV) method. Then, temporal and causal relationships between nonconformities were evaluated quantitatively with the DBN method. As a result, the probability of an allision accident and the risk identifying factors (RIFs) affecting allision during port manoeuvres were calculated. Familiarity with the vessel, using the bridge navigation equipment and features of structures in the port area are the riskiest factors leading to allision accidents. The study is thought to contribute at a practical and strategic level to ship owners, ship personnel, pilotage services, port authorities and all relevant stakeholders in understanding the risk of allision accidents occurring in ports and developing preventive regulations. 

Dynamic risk analysis of allision in port areas using DBN based on HFACS-PV

Ship transportation is a primary mode for global trade and cargo transport, yet even minor discrepancies can lead to ship accidents, causing severe secondary environmental pollution. Maritime accidents involve complex and numerous factors. Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) can identify the key contributing factors and their impact levels by eliminating homogenization factors in maritime accidents. This study constructs an innovative FCA model of ship accidents in Chinese waters, utilizing 172 ship accident reports released by the China Maritime Safety Administration. The analysis reveals seven reduced sets and 23 diagnostic rules of ship accidents. Results show that failed ship registration/security inspection, deficient nautical data and instruments, and management issues are the most critical factors. Three accident chains are identified and corresponding mitigation strategies are proposed to reduce potential pollution from ship accidents. These strategies offer significant reference value for preventing ship accidents and reducing their environmental impact in China and globally. 

Causal diagnostic model and governance strategies to reduce pollution from ship accidents in Chinese waters

A novel integrated method for heterogeneity analysis of marine accidents involving different ship types

Marine accidents cause many irreversible losses for life, property, and the environment. Moreover, accidents occurred in coastal areas cause even more. As a precaution, marine pilotage plays a key role in the safety of navigation. However, accidents still occur in coastal areas even if the pilot is on board. The paper, therefore, focuses on ship accidents that occurred while pilot is on board. In addition to pilot, as many complicated factors affect ship navigation in coastal areas and contribute ship accidents, solving intertwined relations between factors is essential to understanding accidents reasons. In this study, 32 factors contributing to ship accidents were identified based on accident investigation reports obtained from Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) and expert opinion. These factors were analyzed by using DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to solve causal relations between factors. The findings showed that the human and ship related factors are the most significant main categories in the accidents under pilotage. In addition, their sub-categories which are crew training, ship condition, length over all, ship draught, master experience, pilot experience, and bridge team management have the most critical effect on the occurrence of accidents. It was concluded that there is a need for highly collaborative and fruitful relationship between master and pilot to provide safe navigation. Accordingly, effective control and preventive measures, which also provide a deeper understanding of safety management in the dangerous water are extensively discussed. Consequently, the obtained results provide valuable information for maritime transportation safety.

Analysis of causal relations of marine accidents during ship navigation under pilotage: A DEMATEL approach

In recent years, despite the technological advances, and increasing security measures in the maritime industry, it is observed that the effect of the human factor in the marine accidents has not changed. Most of the accidents occur in narrow canals, straits, rivers and entering port areas, resulting in environmental pollution, economical casualties and injury/loss of life. Pilotage is set compulsory in order to maintain safe passage at such confined waters. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of critical human factors on the potential ship accidents under pilotage operations. To explore the identified human factors, depth interviews and a questionnaire study were conducted with masters and pilots. The obtained data was analysed using DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to identify the most important and influential factors. The DEMATEL method is used to investigate interaction among human factors and to visualize them with help of causal-effect relation diagram. The results show that master experience, pilot experience and crew training are significant factors compared to other human risk factors. As a result of the findings of this research, it is also thought that improving the collaboration and communication between the master and the pilot will be effective in preventing the accidents. Moreover, understanding casual relations among human factors is important to prevent marine accidents. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was performed for testing reliability of the experts’ evaluation and being clear certainty of the main results/findings in the DEMATEL method. It is found that expert considerations to the casual relationship between human factors are objective and sufficient. The findings of this article provide a critical overview of the research literature on the development of preventive measures for policy makers, shipping companies and port authorities. 

/pdf/an-evaluation-of-the-effects-of-human-factors-on-potential-1toloai7.pdf

An evaluation of the effects of human factors on potential ship accidents under pilotage

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Analysis of causal relations of marine accidents during ship navigation under pilotage: A DEMATEL approach

An evaluation of the effects of human factors on potential ship accidents under pilotage