Climate-driven global cropland changes and consequent feedbacks

Abstract Animal-mediated pollination is important for agricultural seed and crop production, and critical to overall ecosystem health. However, the scientific literature focused on the economic valuation of pollination services has thus far neglected the role of pollination services in seed production. The marketed food output of many crops is not dependent on pollination services, but these crops indirectly depend on pollination services with respect to their seed production. This study proposes a partial equilibrium framework for identifying the value of pollination services. Using Germany as a case study, we find the value of pollination services is about 33% higher when seed production is considered. This increased valuation is driven by two effects: higher seed costs due to high dependence on pollination services, and a higher demand for seeds due to the land expansion needed to mitigate a potential pollinator collapse. This study demonstrates that more sophisticated approaches are needed to estimate the economic value of pollination services more accurately. 

The Economic Value of Pollination Services for Seed Production: A Blind Spot Deserving Attention

Increasing socioecological systems (SESs) sustainability requires establishing a reasonable cross-regional social and ecological interaction. In this study, we examine how cross-regional ecological and social interactions affect synergistic effects. Using InVEST and correlation analysis with data from 2010 through 2020, we assessed ESs (i.e., water retention-WR, nutrient retention-NR, and carbon storage-CS) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. A small watershed, a river network, and settlement development capacity are used to delineate ecological and social interactions units. Based on a Bayesian network model that considers population, economy, and spatial agglomeration patterns between social units, we assessed the potential for achieving a synergistic improvement of ESs and the driving forces behind them. The results show that ESs in the BTH region compete, only a small percentage (6.38%) shows synergetic improvement across CS, WR, and NR. It is beneficial for upstream watersheds to retain water and nutrients, but to maintain carbon storage they may sacrifice water retention. Upstream areas with less development and higher vegetation density have better ecosystem integrity of up- and down-stream watersheds, and can be enhanced with minimal human impact, as social interactions and settlement spatial structures influence ES synergies. There is a higher risk for ecological issues in downstream areas, but greater awareness and collaboration can lead to better ES synergies. 

The impact of cross-regional social and ecological interactions on ecosystem service synergies.

Integrated modeling of nature’s role in human well-being: A research agenda

Telecoupling, interactions between social-ecological systems across large, often global, distances, drives negative impacts from the forest-based carbon market. Yet, these negative impacts have been underreported; and therefore, likely vastly underestimated. We identify how these unintended negative impacts may occur and provide recommendations for the forest-based carbon market to better account for externalities by prioritising positive social impact, expanding comprehensive ecological outcomes and improving transparency of investments. We call for a carbon market that is designed to account for its global interconnectedness. 

Telecoupling Cannot Be Ignored for the Forest-Based Carbon Market

Sustainable development requires jointly achieving economic development to raise standards of living and environmental sustainability to secure these gains for the long run. Here, we develop a local-to-global, and global-to-local, earth-economy model that integrates the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-computable general equilibrium model of the economy with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model of fine-scale, spatially explicit ecosystem services. The integrated model, GTAP-InVEST, jointly determines land use, environmental conditions, ecosystem services, market prices, supply and demand across economic sectors, trade across regions, and aggregate performance metrics like GDP. We use the integrated model to analyze the contribution of investing in nature for economic prosperity, accounting for the impact of four important ecosystem services (pollination, timber provision, marine fisheries, and carbon sequestration). We show that investments in nature result in large improvements relative to a business-as-usual path, accruing annual gains of $100 to $350 billion (2014 USD) with the largest percentage gains in the lowest-income countries. Our estimates include only a small subset of ecosystem services and could be far higher with inclusion of more ecosystem services, incorporation of ecological tipping points, and reduction in substitutability that limits economic adjustments to declines in natural capital. Our analysis highlights the need for improved environmental-economic modeling and the vital importance of integrating environmental information firmly into economic analysis and policy. The benefits of doing so are potentially very large, with the greatest percentage benefits accruing to inhabitants of the poorest countries.

Investing in nature can improve equity and economic returns.

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Investing in nature can improve equity and economic returns.