After a first foresight study on "World food security in 2050" (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled "Metropolization", "Regionalization" and "Households" are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled "Healthy" and "Communities" involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The "Healthy" scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the "Metropolization" scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors. This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels.

/pdf/land-use-and-food-security-in-2050-a-narrow-road-3lvu53fkl9.pdf

Land use and food security in 2050: a narrow road

Understanding spatio-temporal patterns of host mobility is a key factor to prevent and control animal and human diseases. This is utterly important in low-income countries, where animal disease epidemics have strong socio-economic impacts. In this article we analyzed a livestock mobility database, whose data have been collected by the Centre National d'Elevage et de Recherches Veterinaires (CNERV) Mauritania, to describe its patterns and temporal evolution. Data were collected through phone and face-to-face interviews in almost all the regions in Mauritania over a period of roughly two weeks during June 2015. The analysis has shown the existence of two mobility patterns throughout the year: the first related to routine movements from January to August; the second strictly connected to the religious festivity of Tabaski that in 2014 occurred at the beginning of October. These mobility patterns are different in terms of animals involved (fewer cattle and dromedaries are traded around Tabaski), the means of transportation (the volume of animals moved by truck raises around Tabaski) and destinations (most of the animals are traded nationally around Tabaski). Due to the differences between these two periods, public health officers, researchers and other stakeholders should take account of the time of the year when implementing vaccination campaigns or creating surveillance networks. (Resume d'auteur)

/pdf/towards-the-description-of-livestock-mobility-in-sahelian-18abw3x9tp.pdf

Towards the description of livestock mobility in Sahelian Africa: Some results from a survey in Mauritania.

By the end of the XXIst century, a global temperature rise between 1.5 and 4°C compared to 1980- 1999 and CO2 concentrations in the range 550-900 ppm are expected, together with an increased frequency of extreme climatic events (heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain) that is likely to negatively affect grassland production and livestock systems in a number of world regions. Grassland management has a large potential to mitigate livestock greenhouse gas emissions at a low (or even negative) cost, by combining a moderate intensification, the restoration of degraded pastures and the development of silvo-pastoral systems. Climate change vulnerability will be highest in regional hot spots with high exposure to climatic extremes and low adaptive capacity, such as extensive systems in dryland areas. Biome shifts, with expansion or contraction of the grassland biome, are projected by models. Resistance, resilience and transformation strategies can be used for grassland adaptation. With sown grasslands, adaptation options include changes in forage species (e.g. use of C4 grasses and of annual species) and genotypes and the use of grass-legume mixtures. Grazing management can be adapted to increase the resilience of plant communities to climatic variability. Our understanding of the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation in the grassland sector is still limited and requires further research. Provided this understanding is gained, climate smart grassland systems that sustainably increase productivity and resilience (adaptation), reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), and enhance food security and development could be promoted. By reducing productivity gaps and increasing livestock production efficiency, they would also contribute to mitigate climate change from tropical deforestation and expansion of grasslands into savannahs. (Resume d'auteur)

/pdf/managing-grassland-systems-in-a-changing-climate-the-search-ernycyenbp.pdf

Managing grassland systems in a changing climate: the search for practical solutions.

The delineation and protection of transhumance corridors are increasingly seen as critical to maintaining livestock mobility in agropastoral areas of West Africa by allowing passage through areas of increasing cropping pressure. Understanding the local politics surrounding the mapping and protection of transhumance corridors is important for policy formulation. This study reports the findings of group meetings in nine local districts (communaut's rurales) in eastern Senegal about recently mapped corridors. The focus of our observations include local perceptions of 1) the benefits and costs of corridors, 2) the effect of the recognition of corridors on competing land uses (particularly farming), 3) the need for and means to recognize and protect corridors, and 4) the appropriate level of authority to recognize and protect corridors. Our findings show significant geographical variation within the study area as to the perceived benefits and costs of corridors, with a major distinction between groups who view the function of corridors as protecting local farms from livestock passing through and those that understand corridors as critical for facilitating access to pastures. Given the significant overlap among multiple formal and informal poles of authority, the politics surrounding corridor delineation and protection are shaped less by the perceived costs to competing land uses than by contestation over the authority that designation and protection would require. Policy implications of findings for land use planning around corridors are discussed.

/pdf/mapping-of-pastoral-corridors-practices-and-politics-in-1cyqv5uyzl.pdf

Mapping of pastoral corridors: practices and politics in eastern Senegal

Chapitre 8. La vulnérabilité pastorale au Sahel : portée et limite des systèmes d'alerte basés sur des indicateurs

Depuis une trentaine d'annees, l'elevage pastoral sahelien traverse de grands changements institutionnels, socio-economiques, climatiques et agroecologiques qui bouleversent le mode de vie des populations rurales ; celles-ci deviennent de plus en plus vulnerables. Le SIPSA et ses partenaires ont collecte et analyse pour cet atlas des produits informationnels qui corroborent ces tendances evolutives, mais revelent aussi l'insuffisance de donnees historiques et d'indicateurs specifiques qui permettent d'affiner les analyses et de caracteriser, anticiper et gerer les crises pastorales. Durant la periode 1972-2012, il se degage les tendances generales. Sur le plan legislatif, le statut de systeme de production a ete reconnu a l'elevage pastoral par plusieurs pays saheliens, meme si les cadres reglementaires different d'un pays a l'autre. L'harmonisation et l'application des textes regissant la transhumance transfrontaliere et la commercialisation du betail sont tres fortement soutenues par les organisations faitieres d'eleveurs et reviennent en priorite dans les politiques des institutions et economiques sous -regionales. Sur le plan climatique, apres les variations interannuelles des deux dernieres decennies et malgre les grandes secheresses (1968-1974, 1983-1984, 2002-2003, 2005, 2009), la tendance actuelle dans la zone pastorale sahelienne serait une remontee vers le nord des isohyetes, L'enregistrement des feux a revele de faibles occurrences d'octobre a novembre. On observe cependant de fortes densites au sud de la zone pastorale ainsi qu'aux alentours des zones humides (delta du fleuve Senegal, delta interieur du fleuve Niger et lac Tchad). La mobilite pastorale s'est adaptee aux changements sous les effets combines de l'accroissement du cheptel, de la frequence accrue des secheresses et de l'expansion des zones de culture jusque dans les couloirs de transhumance. A ces facteurs s'ajoute la densite accrue des marches a betails transfrontaliers, ce qui contraint de plus en plus les eleveurs a creer des itineraires alternatifs plus longs et disperses vers le sud. Nonobstant le nombre et la diversite d'infrastructures d'equipements existant depuis une cinquantaine d'annees, des politiques d'amenagement insuffisamment coordonnees entre les principaux acteurs et les difficultes d'acces au marche freinent encore l'essor du developpement pastoral. Sur le plan socio-economique, les menages pastoraux diversifient leurs activites tout en developpant des mecanismes endogenes non monetaires d'entraide pour attenuer les chocs climatiques, economiques et sanitaires. L'analyse des revenus de menages en zone pastorale au Senegal nous renseigne sur l'inegalite des revenus moyens dans et entre les sites pastoraux, liee a leur localisation geographique (marches, infrastructures sociales de base...) mais aussi et surtout a leur dotation en ouvrages hydrauliques (forage ou puits pastoraux). Depuis plus d'une decennie, la tendance a l'utilisation des nouvelles technologies d'information et de telecommunication et de vehicules motorises a considerablement perfectionne les strategies de gestion et de mobilite des eleveurs dans les zones pastorales des pays saheliens. D'une maniere generale, les systemes d'information et d'alerte precoce operant au Sahel sont contraints par le manque ou l'absence de donnees primaires ou de syntheses historiques pertinentes mais aussi d'indicateurs specifiques renseignes pour caracteriser les crises et les tendances evolutives que subissent les systemes pastoraux saheliens ; le manque d'organisation en un reseau coherent des differents acteurs et beneficiaires (populations rurales, OPE, ...) ; l'insuffisance de l'implication/participation des structures locales et nationales des eleveurs dans la negociation des politiques publiques. Par exemple, rares sont les pays dotes de dispositifs statistiques sur les effectifs exacts de cheptel ou sur le suivi des marches a betail situes en zone pastorale. Les ecarts constates

Atlas des évolutions des systèmes pastoraux au Sahel : 1970-2012

Plaidoyer pour un système d'information sur le pastoralisme au Sahel

Pastoral. systems play a predominant part in the economy of Sahelean countries by contributing to the food security of rural as well as urban households. But this breeding system based on managing natural routes cannot yet successfully adapt itself to the current context characterised since the 1970's by great agricultural - ecological and institutional changes. The endogenous evolution of these systems needs to be supported to better meet these changes and the implementation of adapted policies is needed to avoid crises and conflicts. Some research work has been carried out by various organisms on this major economics. The one led by LEAD (Livestock, Environment And Development Initiative) has contributed to the understanding of the biological phenomena involved in breeding - environment interactions. The renewed understanding of breeding - environment interactions, the dynamics of current initiatives and new pastoralism diagnosis and evaluation tools laid the foundations of SIPSA (Information System on Pastoralism in the Sahel) that was launched in 2002 to promote the taking into account of pastoralism-environment interactions in extensive livestock breeding policies and practices in Sahelean arid zone. This information and early warning system is today displayed in six Sahelean countries and has, in the future, to put an end to the lack of indicators and information specific to pastoral systems to make it possible for breeders and political makers to better manage spaces, resources and societies. This paper describes the implementation of this decision making help system in Senegal by a national coordination committee (CNC), hard data to indicators and information products co-built with different actors. (Resume d'auteur)

An information and early warning system designed for sahelian pastoral systems : The example of SIPSA implementation in Senegal

Quels enjeux pour un système d'information sur le pastoralisme au Sahel ?

Le pastoralisme joue un role preponderant dans l'economie des pays du Sahel et de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (AO) et participe a la securite alimentaire et nutritionnelle des menages ruraux et urbains (Wane et al., 2009). La contribution du secteur elevage au PIB atteint 5 a 10% et les systemes pastoraux fournissent plus de 50% de la production en viande et en lait (De Haan et al., 1999). Le pastoralisme s'avere economiquement viable et ecologiquement adapte a la valorisation durable d'une ressource naturelle fragile et eparse dans la zone sahelienne (Toutain et al. 2012). Plus encore, le systeme de production mobile fournit de meilleurs rendements en termes de production annuelle de proteines animales par hectare par rapport au systeme de ranching ou autres systemes intensifs a vocation commerciale. Ces systemes d'elevage sont confrontes a de nombreux defis, lies notamment, a la marginalisation des populations pastorales dans les instances de gouvernance locale, et a la competition croissante pour l'acces aux ressources. Dans ce contexte, les pasteurs et les politiques manquent d'informations et d'indicateurs specifiques sur les enjeux et la viabilite de ce systeme de production (flux saisonniers de transhumance, vulnerabilite des menages pastoraux, variations des prix des animaux et de denrees alimentaires?) insuffisamment pris en compte par le cade des systemes d'information et d'alerte precoce sur la securite alimentaire existants (Toure et al 2012). A cette asymetrie d'informations s'ajoute l'absence de cadre officiel de concertation entre les pasteurs, leurs organisations de producteurs faitieres et les institutions techniques nationales, regionales et internationales en charge des politiques agricoles en general et de securite alimentaire et nutritionnelle des populations pastorales en particulier. Partant des enseignements tires de la mise en oeuvre du systeme d'information sur le pastoralisme au Sahel (SIPSA) dans six pays du CILSS (Burkina, Mali, Mauritanie, Niger, Senegal et Tchad). Cette presentation va mettre en exergue ses acquis (scientifiques, methodologiques, pedagogiques? ), ses limites et ses defis (structurels, politiques..) en vue d'une amelioration des interventions publiques en periode de crise. (Resume d'auteur)

Les systèmes d'information sur le pastoralisme (SIPSA) : quelle contribution à la réduction des risques et à l'amélioration des politiques ?

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