The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

This article reviews the main insights from selected literature on risk perception, particularly in connection with natural hazards. It includes numerous case studies on perception and social behavior dealing with floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, wild fires, and landslides. The review reveals that personal experience of a natural hazard and trust--or lack of trust--in authorities and experts have the most substantial impact on risk perception. Cultural and individual factors such as media coverage, age, gender, education, income, social status, and others do not play such an important role but act as mediators or amplifiers of the main causal connections between experience, trust, perception, and preparedness to take protective actions. When analyzing the factors of experience and trust on risk perception and on the likeliness of individuals to take preparedness action, the review found that a risk perception paradox exists in that it is assumed that high risk perception will lead to personal preparedness and, in the next step, to risk mitigation behavior. However, this is not necessarily true. In fact, the opposite can occur if individuals with high risk perception still choose not to personally prepare themselves in the face of a natural hazard. Therefore, based on the results of the review, this article offers three explanations suggesting why this paradox might occur. These findings have implications for future risk governance and communication as well as for the willingness of individuals to invest in risk preparedness or risk mitigation actions.

The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards

This paper reviews state-of-the-art empirical, hydrodynamic and simple conceptual models for determining flood inundation. It explores their advantages and limitations, highlights the most recent advances and discusses future directions. It addresses how uncertainty is analysed in this field with the various approaches and identifies opportunities for handling it better. The aim is to inform scientists new to the field, and help emergency response agencies, water resources managers, insurance companies and other decision makers keep up-to-date with the latest developments. Guidance is provided for selecting the most suitable method/model for solving practical flood related problems, taking into account the specific outputs required for the modelling purpose, the data available and computational demands. Multi-model, multi-discipline approaches are recommended in order to further advance this research field. This paper reviews state-of-the-art flood inundation models.It explores their advantages and limitations.It highlights the most recent advances and discusses future directions.It addresses how uncertainty is analysed and identifies opportunities for handling it better.

Flood inundation modelling

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Trends in ecology and evolution

韧性（resilience）是指个人面对生活逆境、创伤、悲剧、威胁及其他生活重大压力的良好适应，也是个人应激（stress）和应对（coping）的正面结果。在过去的数十年，护理学等健康相关领域的学者们一直在关注为什么一些人在逆境、压力、疾病等高危（high risk）经历下也能较好地维持健康，而一些人则被逆境打败，身心健康也随之处于不良状态。近年来，应激心理学、健康心理学、精神医学、教育学、护理学等各学科对韧性概念越来越重视，尤其是临床领域的研究，从过去强调人的缺点和脆弱性的病理模式转变为关注个人的优势和强韧性的健康模式。

韧性（Resilience）的概念分析

On 27 June 2006 the Council of the European Union reached political agreement on a draft directive on the assessment and management of flood risks. This directive prescribes approaches and procedures which should be met by the member states. The website of the EU on this directive links to another EU‐initiative, the Integrated Project FLOODsite, which aims at providing methodologies for flood risk analysis and management. Obviously, the directive and the IP emerged in a common but much larger context of public and scientific debate on a more integrated and coordinated approach to dealing with flood risks. In this paper we briefly discuss this context and examine a few national cases in order to find out whether flood risk management is already common practice or is still in its infancy, or whether it involves merely good intentions. We base this examination primarily on our experiences within FLOODsite and on presentations held within the special session on River Flood Risk Management which was o...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635358

Towards Flood Risk Management in the EU : State of affairs with examples from various European countries

Flood risk analysis increasingly involves the integration of a full range of loading conditions as well as multiple defence system states, overlaid by uncertainty analysis. This type of analysis involves the simulation of many thousands of flood events. To keep model runtimes to practical levels an efficient yet robust flood inundation model is required. To accommodate this need a rapid flood spreading model (RFSM) has been developed that utilises the availability of good quality topography data and advanced GIS techniques. This paper describes recent improvements to the RFSM that have focused on incorporating additional physical processes within the spreading algorithm (multiple spilling and friction). This improved model is applied to a number of different sites with comparisons made to a more complex hydrodynamic model. The findings of this comparison demonstrate a good degree of similarity between the RFSM and more complex models, with a significantly reduced runtime overhead.

/pdf/recent-development-and-application-of-a-rapid-flood-4thev6mqf6.pdf

Recent development and application of a rapid flood spreading method

Floods cause distress and damage wherever and whenever they happen Flooding from rivers, estuaries and the sea threatens many millions of people worldwide and economic and insurance losses from flooding have increased significantly since 1990 Across the European Union, flood management policy is changing in response to the EU Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks, which requires a move from flood protection and defence to comprehensive flood risk management Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice includes about 200 contributions from the international conference FLOODrisk 2008 (Oxford, UK, 30 September - 2 October 2008) FLOODrisk 2008 was an initiative of the FLOODsite research project on Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies FLOODsite was a major "Integrated Project" in the European Commission Sixth Framework Programme; contract number GOCE-CT-2004-505420 The conference provided a forum for leading researchers, flood risk managers, policy makers and practitioners from government, commercial and research organisations to gain an overview of advances in this important subject Flood risk management practice crosses several professions and disciplines and these are represented in the breadth of the scope of the conference and these proceedings The conference covered all aspects of flood risk: the causes of floods, their impacts on people, property and the environment, and portfolios of risk management measuresm, while the principal themes included: climate change, estimation of extremes, flash floods, flood forecasting and warning, inundation modelling, systems analysis, uncertainty, international programmes, flood defence infrastructure and assets, environmental impacts, human and social impacts, vulnerability and resilience, risk sharing, equity and social justice, and, civil contingency planning and emergency management Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice will be of interest to an international readership, ranging from authorities, consultants and engineers involved in flood management; researchers, post graduate lecturers and students, to policy makers, particularly at national level

Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice

https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:18473/ATTACHMENT01

Obstacles to data access for research related to climate and water: Implications for science and EU policy-making

Backwater lengths in rivers.

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