/pdf/2022-standard-scenarios-report-a-u-s-electricity-sector-iiua8h8g.pdf

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. For this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs. 

Net-Zero CO2 by 2050 Scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 Study

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential, especially when considering highly decarbonized futures. Local zoning ordinances may impact wind and solar development in the United States. A new study finds that setbacks could reduce resource potential by up to 87% for wind and 38% for solar. 

Impact of siting ordinances on land availability for wind and solar development

Advancements in hydrogen storage technologies: A comprehensive review of materials, methods, and economic policy

The role of flexible geothermal power in decarbonized electricity systems

The growing climate emergency requires a dramatic and rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and internationally. This study evaluates a variety of 100% clean electricity system scenarios in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050, specifically focusing on technical requirements, challenges, and cost implications. The results highlight there are multiple approaches to cost-effectively achieve a net-zero carbon grid in 2035. 

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81644.pdf

Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

Getting to 100%: Six strategies for the challenging last 10%

Electricity prices reported in many electricity-system planning studies leave out multiple price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010–2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Rate components associated with distribution, administration, intra-regional transmission, and transmission operations and maintenance account for roughly 59% (6.6 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020–2050 under central assumptions. rates for each state from FERC IOU data aggregated at the state, regional, and national level. National aggregation implies a single value for distribution CAPEX/OPEX, administration CAPEX/OPEX, and transmission OPEX rates [¢/kWh] across all states; total state rates still vary in this case due to differences in generation rates and inter-BA flows across states.

/pdf/retail-rate-projections-for-long-term-electricity-system-teetqw4m.pdf

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Offshore wind is an emerging industry in the with rapidly changing technology advancements and an accelerating global deployment. Policy demands and interest in the United States has grown, but the long-term future for offshore wind remains uncertain. This study is designed to evaluate offshore wind's potential role in the future U.S. energy system. The analysis uses long-term power system models to assess a wide-range of power system possibilities. Specific objectives of the analysis are to: (1) identify the determinants of offshore wind deployment under different scenarios and (2) understand the impacts of substantial levels of offshore wind deployment on the power system. We also highlight future research needs for more robust understanding the opportunities and challenges to U.S. offshore wind development. 

/pdf/the-determinants-of-offshore-wind-s-role-in-a-future-u-s-krjy8vw3.pdf

The Determinants of Offshore Wind's Role in a Future U.S. Energy System: A Preliminary Modeling Sensitivity Analysis

This paper will take a broad based approach in analyzing the structure of the U.S. economy with a particular emphasis on the disruptive U.S. recession and financial crisis which began circa 2008. The role of the U.S. government and the implications high levels of fiscal debt have on the projected growth path of the U.S. economy will be the primary focus of the paper. The discussion will show that the U.S. has likely entered a new, much more difficult stage in its history of economic growth. The short to medium term growth potential of the U.S. economy has fallen below the trend level established since WWII. The flexibility of the U.S. economy will help foster the necessary adjustments; however, this new era will force difficult fiscal and monetary policy choices that have different implications for different section of the population. The policy makers must recognize the changing dynamics of the U.S. economy and they must be prudent in drafting policy that establishes a stronger foundation for future growth. Younger generations in particular will need to take notice of the decisions being made and plan accordingly as it relates to their spending, saving and investment habits.

Future Implications of Debt and Deleveraging in the United States Economy

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