Performance measures (PMs) and corresponding performance evaluation criteria (PEC) are important aspects of calibrating and validating hydrologic and water quality models and should be updated with advances in modeling science. We synthesized PMs and PEC from a previous special collection, performed a meta-analysis of performance data reported in recent peer-reviewed literature for three widely published watershed-scale models (SWAT, HSPF, WARMF), and one field-scale model (ADAPT), and provided guidelines for model performance evaluation. Based on the synthesis, meta-analysis, and personal modeling experiences, we recommend coefficient of determination (R2; in conjunction with gradient and intercept of the corresponding regression line), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), index of agreement (d), root mean square error (RMSE; alongside the ratio of RMSE and standard deviation of measured data, RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), and several graphical PMs to evaluate model performance. We recommend that model performance can be judged satisfactory for flow simulations if monthly R2 0.70 and d 0.75 for field-scale models, and daily, monthly, or annual R2 0.60, NSE 0.50, and PBIAS ≤ ±15% for watershed-scale models. Model performance at the watershed scale can be evaluated as satisfactory if monthly R2 0.40 and NSE 0.45 and daily, monthly, or annual PBIAS ≤ ±20% for sediment; monthly R20.40 and NSE 0.35 and daily, monthly, or annual PBIAS ≤ ±30% for phosphorus (P); and monthly R2 0.30 and NSE 0.35 and daily, monthly, or annual PBIAS ≤ ±30% for nitrogen (N). For RSR, we recommend that previously published PEC be used as detailed in this article. We also recommend that these PEC be used primarily for the four models for which there were adequate data, and used only with caution for other models. These PEC can be adjusted within acceptable bounds based on additional considerations, such as quality and quantity of available measured data, spatial and temporal scales, and project scope and magnitude, and updated based on the framework presented herein. This initial meta-analysis sets the stage for more comprehensive meta-analysis to revise PEC as new PMs and more data become available.

Hydrologic and Water Quality Models: Performance Measures and Evaluation Criteria

The Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), launched in 2003 and concluded by the PUB Symposium 2012 held in Delft (23–25 October 2012), set out to shift the scientific culture of hydrology towards improved scientific understanding of hydrological processes, as well as associated uncertainties and the development of models with increasing realism and predictive power. This paper reviews the work that has been done under the six science themes of the PUB Decade and outlines the challenges ahead for the hydrological sciences community.Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H.H.G., Bloschl, G., McDonnell, J.J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J.W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M.P., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J.E., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H.V., Hughes, D.A., Hut, R.W., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P.A., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H.C., Woods, R.A., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C., 2013. A d...

/pdf/a-decade-of-predictions-in-ungauged-basins-pub-a-review-2g78unzpne.pdf

A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review

This paper reviews the use of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in the 20 years since the paper by Beven and Binley in Hydrological Processes in (1992), which is ...

GLUE: 20 years on

This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

/pdf/facets-of-uncertainty-epistemic-uncertainty-non-stationarity-15zx5ex4ww.pdf

Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

Calibration of hydrologic models using flow-duration curves

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Calibration of hydrologic models using flow-duration curves