The purpose of this paper is to present time-dependent scenarios of climate change for the UK, including possible changes in extreme climatic events. Initially, the methods of scenario construction are described. These involve the scaling of the regional patterns of equilibrium climate change produced by general circulation models (GCMs) by the time-dependent projection of global-mean temperature change. A 'Business-as-Usual' forcing scenario is then used to project global warming to the year 2050. This projection is used to develop scenarios of the UK temperature and precipitation change. The implications for sea level are also discussed. Finally, the climate change 'commitment' for the UK, due to past radiative forcing changes and the lags in the climate system, is considered.

Climate change scenarios for the UK

Global warming and climate change will trigger major changes in diversity and abundance of arthropods, geographical distribution of insect pests, insect population dynamics, insect biotypes, herbivore-plant interactions, activity and abundance of natural enemies, species extinction, and efficacy of crop protection technologies. Changes in geographical range and insect abundance will increase the extent of crop losses and, thus, will have a major bearing on crop production and food security. Distribution of insect pests will also be influenced by the changes in cropping patterns triggered by climate change. Major insect pests, such as cereal stem borers (Chilo, Sesamia, and Scirpophaga), pod borers (Helicoverpa, Maruca, and Spodoptera), aphids, and whiteflies may move to temperate regions, leading to greater damage in cereals, grain legumes, vegetables, and fruit crops. Host-plant resistance, biopesticides, natural enemies, and synthetic chemicals are some of the potential options for integrated pest management. However, the relative efficacy of many of these pest control measures is likely to change as a result of global warming. Climate change will also result in increased problems with insect-transmitted diseases. These changes will have major implications for crop protection and food security, particularly in developing countries where the need to increase and sustain food production is most urgent. Long-term monitoring of population levels and insect behavior, particularly in identifiably sensitive regions, may provide some of the first indications of a biological response to climate change.

/pdf/climate-change-effects-on-insects-implications-for-crop-28sgx5zeuo.pdf

Climate Change Effects on Insects: Implications for Crop Protection and Food Security

Biochemical and Physiological Requirements of Trees for Forest Development Beyond Tree Limits: Molecular Bases for Adaptation of Coniferous Trees to Cold Climates D.J. Durzan. Growth of Mountain Birch in Response to Changing Temperature O. Skre. Environmental Limitations of Forest Development At and Beyond Tree Limits: Causes of Alpine Timberline P. Wardle. Physiology of Trees at Treeline J. Grace, J. James. Potential Tree Species and Provenances for Forest Development in Cold Climates: Genetic Diversity of Tree Populations at their Arctic Limits P.M.A. Tigerstedt. Species and Provenance Choice at Northern Tree Limits in Maritime Climates R. Lines. Provenane Selection, Testing, and Breeding to Accelerate Adaptation and Growth of Trees and Shrubs: Accelerating Adaptation of Trees at Tree Limits by Selective Breeding D. Lindgren. Case Histories of Forest Development Beyond Tree Limits: History of Tree Planting on the Aleutian Islands D. Bruce. 29 additional articles. Index.

Forest development in cold climates.

In this paper, initial results are reported of a study to evaluate the broad-scale sensitivity of agriculture to climatic change in Europe. The study employs an agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), to relate temperature patterns to the cultivable limits of grain maize (Zea mays). A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map ETS on the basis both of present-day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation.



The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1°C (within the present-day range of interannual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany and northern Poland to potential maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. These represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km °C−1 in western Europe and 250–400 km °C−1 in eastern Europe. Comparison of these shifts with those estimated on the basis of general circulation model (GCM) projections of future temperatures suggests that a 1°C warming will be achieved well before the time the global climate responds fully to an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, possibly as early as 2010. Shifts comparable with those for a 4°C warming are achieved under all the GCM scenarios of doubled CO2, occurring perhaps as soon as 2050 if the current growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this (high) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter.



Such shifts would offer new opportunities for farmers in different regions of northern Europe. However, given the possible rapidity of the shifts, in order for these opportunities to be exploited successfully immediate attention should be directed towards more detailed assessments of crop potential in regions identified as currently marginal for grain maize.

Climatic change and future agroclimatic potential in Europe

Predicted climate change over the coming decades is likely to add measurable stress to water resources in many regions of the world, including some areas that are currently well endowed. The stresses are likely to involve changes in the frequency of extreme events as well as gradual changes in mean annual net resources. The paper analyses these predictions. It also attempts to place them in context, first, comparing their impact with other major barriers to sustainability, such as increasing demand, wastage, poor water resources assessment and international conflict, and, secondly, considering the limitations of current predictive techniques.

Climate change and sustainable water resources: placing the threat of global warming in perspective

Estimates of future climatic change over britain

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Estimates of future climatic change over britain