The authors describe carbon system formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models (ESM), ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate good climate fidelity as described in part I of this study while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ almost exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses the Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers, whereas ESM2G uses generalized ocean layer dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. On land, both ESMs include a revised land model to simulate competitive vegetation distributions and functioning, including carbon cycling among vegetation, soil, and atmosphere. In the ocean, both models include new biogeochemical algorithms including phytoplankton functional group dynamics with flexible stoichiometry. Preindustrial simulations are spun up to give stable, realistic carbon cycle means and variability. Significant differences...

GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14 C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial cli- mates. The data allow climate variables related to growing- season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate recon- structions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern- analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on

/pdf/pollen-based-continental-climate-reconstructions-at-6-and-21-q7dw2mep3u.pdf

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: A global synthesis

Canadian boreal woodlands and forests cover approximately 3.09 × 106 km2, located within a larger boreal zone characterized by cool summers and long cold winters. Warming since the 1850s, increases...

Anticipating the consequences of climate change for Canada’s boreal forest ecosystems1

▪ Abstract Modern analog analysis, the comparison of Quaternary fossil pollen assemblages with modern assemblages, has long been a mainstay of paleoecological and paleoclimatic inference. The logic of analogical inference involves a comparative element (comparison of modern and fossil assemblages to select matches and assess goodness of fit) and a causal element (assumption that the relationships between modern vegetation and derivative pollen assemblages are matched by those between ancient vegetation and fossil pollen assemblages). An array of numerical and statistical tools have been developed to ensure objective, consistent, and quantitative assessments of similarity between pollen assemblages. Divergent or convergent relationships between vegetation and pollen assemblages can arise from a variety of sources, composing a potential source of error in analog analysis, but such errors can be anticipated and minimized. Pollen assemblages lacking modern analogs are well documented for the late-glacial peri...

MODERN ANALOGS IN QUATERNARY PALEOECOLOGY: Here Today, Gone Yesterday, Gone Tomorrow?

Modern pollen data from North America and Greenland for multi-scale paleoenvironmental applications

The climate of North America and the adjacent ocean at 6000 BP was estimated using five independent approaches. Using pollen data, the terrestrial climate was estimated by the movement of ecozone boundaries and by the method of modern analogues. Both analyses indicate warmer temperatures in the western Great Lakes area and the northern Great Plains. A model of Sphagnum-dominated peatland initiation, when forced by Canadian Climate Model 6 ka output projected a cooler and (or) wetter climate for continental western North America. Contrary to this, a reconstruction of the distribution of Sphagnum-dominated peatlands in western Canada indicates that they were located north of their modern distribution, suggesting warmer and (or) drier conditions at 6000 BP. This interpretation is strengthened by observations of lower lake levels at 6000 BP in western Canada. This drier climate may have been associated with warmer conditions as indicated by the quantitative climate reconstructions. In general, eastern North A...

/pdf/the-climate-of-north-america-and-adjacent-ocean-waters-ca-6-25qu3zedx6.pdf

The climate of North America and adjacent ocean waters ca. 6 ka

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The climate of North America and adjacent ocean waters ca. 6 ka