The concept of tipping points and critical transitions helps inform our understanding of the catastrophic effects that global change may have on ecosystems, Earth system components, and the whole E...

Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation.

Abstract The character and health of ecosystems worldwide is tightly coupled to changes in Earth’s climate. Theory suggests that ecosystem resilience—the ability of ecosystems to resist and recover from external shocks such as droughts and fires—can be inferred from their natural variability. Here, we quantify vegetation resilience globally with complementary metrics based on two independent long-term satellite records. We first empirically confirm that the recovery rates from large perturbations can be closely approximated from internal vegetation variability across vegetation types and climate zones. On the basis of this empirical relationship, we quantify vegetation resilience continuously and globally from 1992 to 2017. Long-term vegetation resilience trends are spatially heterogeneous, with overall increasing resilience in the tropics and decreasing resilience at higher latitudes. Shorter-term trends, however, reveal a marked shift towards a global decline in vegetation resilience since the early 2000s, particularly in the equatorial rainforest belt. 

/pdf/empirical-evidence-for-recent-global-shifts-in-vegetation-2j5c5aq1.pdf

Empirical evidence for recent global shifts in vegetation resilience

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13449

The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation

Dynamic analysis of a plant-water model with spatial diffusion

The stability analysis of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with multiple equilibria has received extensive interest since it is a prerequisite for successful applications of RNNs. With the increasing theoretical results on this topic, it is desirable to review the results for a systematical understanding of the state of the art. This article provides an overview of the stability results of RNNs with multiple equilibria including complete stability and multistability. First, preliminaries on the complete stability and multistability analysis of RNNs are introduced. Second, the complete stability results of RNNs are summarized. Third, the multistability results of various RNNs are reviewed in detail. Finally, future directions in these interesting topics are suggested.

An Overview of the Stability Analysis of Recurrent Neural Networks With Multiple Equilibria.

Spatial self-organization of dryland vegetation constitutes one of the most promising indicators for an ecosystem's proximity to desertification. This insight is based on studies of reaction-diffusion models that reproduce visual characteristics of vegetation patterns observed on aerial photographs. However, until now, the development of reliable early warning systems has been hampered by the lack of more in-depth comparisons between model predictions and real ecosystem patterns. In this paper, we combined topographical data, (remotely sensed) optical data, and in situ biomass measurements from two sites in Somalia to generate a multilevel description of dryland vegetation patterns. We performed an in-depth comparison between these observed vegetation pattern characteristics and predictions made by the extended-Klausmeier model for dryland vegetation patterning. Consistent with model predictions, we found that for a given topography, there is multistability of ecosystem states with different pattern wavenumbers. Furthermore, observations corroborated model predictions regarding the relationships between pattern wavenumber, total biomass, and maximum biomass. In contrast, model predictions regarding the role of slope angles were not corroborated by the empirical data, suggesting that inclusion of small-scale topographical heterogeneity is a promising avenue for future model development. Our findings suggest that patterned dryland ecosystems may be more resilient to environmental change than previously anticipated, but this enhanced resilience crucially depends on the adaptive capacity of vegetation patterns.

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03272328/document

Multistability of model and real dryland ecosystems through spatial self-organization.

The existence of localized vegetation patterns in a systematically reduced model for dryland vegetation

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Multistability of model and real dryland ecosystems through spatial self-organization.

The existence of localized vegetation patterns in a systematically reduced model for dryland vegetation