Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Based on regional model simulations of two distinct cases of the southwest vortex (SWV), this study compares their thermal and dynamic features and the differences in the evolution between a steady SWV and an eastwardly propagating SWV. The main results are as follows: (1) the rainfall period and area are determined by the location and movement of the SWV. The pathway of SWV movement is largely controlled by large-scale circulation, especially the subtropical high, which may have a blocking effect on the SWV. Generally, a stable subtropical high extending to the west has a blocking effect that leads to a steady SWV without much movement, while the eastward and southward retreat of the subtropical high favors the eastward propagation of the SWV; (2) both of the SWV types exhibit a vertical structure of convergence, positive vorticity, vertical motion maxima and a divergence center sequentially from the lower to the upper atmosphere. The localized thermal conditions are more important in steady SWV than in the eastwardly propagating SWV, while dynamic effects dominate in the eastwardly propagating SWV; (3) the strength of the convective activity of the eastwardly propagating SWV is significantly greater than that of the steady SWV due to the increased atmospheric instability. The vertical velocity, vorticity, divergence and surrounding wind speed are much greater for the eastwardly propagating SWV than the steady SWV, which favors the increased strength and high-level development of the eastwardly propagating SWV.

Comparison of the movement and vertical structures of two types of the southwest vortex

In this study, an east-moving Tibetan Plateau vortex (TPV) is analyzed by using the ERA-5 reanalysis and multi-source satellite data, including FengYun-2E, Aqua/MODIS and CALIPSO. The objective is to demonstrate: (i) the usefulness of multi-spectral satellite observations in understanding the evolution of a TPV and the associated rainfall, and (ii) the potential significance of cloud-top quantitative information in improving Southwest China weather forecasts. Results in this study show that the heavy rainfall is caused by the coupling of an east-moving TPV and some low-level weather systems [a Plateau shear line and a Southwest Vortex (SWV)], wherein the TPV is a key component. During the TPV’s life cycle, the rainfall and vortex intensity maintain a significant positive correlation with the convective cloud-top fraction and height within a 2.5◦ radius away from its center. Moreover, its growth is found to be quite sensitive to the cloud phases and particle sizes. In the mature stage when the TPV is coupled with an SWV, an increase of small ice crystal particles and appearance of ring- and U/V-shaped cold cloud-top structures can be seen as the signature of a stronger convection and rainfall enhancement within the TPV. A tropopause folding caused by ageostrophic flows at the upper level may be a key factor in the formation of ring-shaped and U/V-shaped cloud-top structures. Based on these results, we believe that the supplementary quantitative information of an east-moving TPV cloud top collected by multi-spectral satellite observations could help to improve Southwest China short-range/nowcasting weather forecasts.

Satellite-based Observational Study of the Tibetan Plateau Vortex: Features of Deep Convective Cloud Tops

Heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall can pose threat to the dense population in East Asia by catastrophic flooding. Although previous studies have identified Indian Ocean (IO) warming as the major cause of heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall, it failed to predict the record-breaking rainfall in July 2020. Synthesizing observational analysis, large-ensemble climate simulations, and atmospheric simulations, we show that sea-ice loss in the Kara Sea in May can intensify the IO warming-induced heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall and well explains the record-breaking rainfall in July 2020. In the precondition of IO warming, sea-ice loss tends to prolong Meiyu-Baiu season and strengthen convective activity over the Meiyu-Baiu region, thereby enhancing the IO warming-induced heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall by ~50% and doubling the risk of extreme events comparable to or greater than the one in 2020. A statistical model is further constructed to demonstrate that taking Arctic sea ice into consideration can significantly improve the seasonal prediction of extreme Meiyu-Baiu rainfall.

Sea-ice loss in Eurasian Arctic coast intensifies heavy Meiyu-Baiu rainfall associated with Indian Ocean warming

Abstract The southwest vortex (SWV) is a critical weather system in China, but our knowledge of this system remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the cloud properties in the SWV. First, we search for the SWVs with time steps and center locations that are consistent between the SWV yearbook and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Second, we supplement these SWVs’ life spans and movement paths. Third, we relocate the Fengyun (FY) satellite FY-4A cloud retrievals in the 10° × 10° region centered on each SWV and analyze the cloud occurrence frequency (COF), cloud-top height (CTH), and cloud optical thickness (COT). A distribution mode of cloud types is summarized from the COFs, with water clouds, supercooled clouds, mixed clouds, ice clouds, cirrus clouds, and overlap clouds occurring sequentially from west to east. The CTH probability density (PD) distribution features a significant north–south difference. In addition, the COT PD distributions exhibit a common trend: with increasing COT, the PD increases rapidly and then slowly before peaking, whereupon the PD decreases abruptly. From spring to summer, the region with the highest convective COF shifts from the northeast to the northwest, and an east–west gradient of the convective COF appears in autumn and winter. Furthermore, we investigate the cloud properties during SWV-related heavy rainfall. Heavy rain occurs mainly in the west of the SWV, and convective clouds are mainly in the northwest, partly in the southwest and near the SWV center. The average CTH in heavy rainfall is generally higher than 6 km, and the average COT is greater than 20. Significance Statement The southwest vortex (SWV) is an important weather system in China. However, we do not yet comprehensively know this weather system. The cloud properties can indicate the structures of weather systems and are key parameters in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Thus, investigating cloud properties is necessary and meaningful to understand the SWV and accurately predict SWV-related precipitation in NWP models. In this paper, a typical distribution mode of six cloud types in the SWV is summarized from the cloud occurrence frequency, and the distribution features of convective clouds, cloud-top height, and cloud optical thickness in the SWV are analyzed. Furthermore, the cloud properties in SWV-related heavy rain are also studied. 

Physical and Optical Properties of Clouds in the Southwest Vortex from FY-4A Cloud Retrievals

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.749

Binary mesovortex structure associated with southwest vortex

With global warming, extreme high temperatures become more frequent and are an important factor affecting aircrafts’ takeoff performance. Using Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and Boeing Performance Software (BPS), the influence of increasing temperature on aircrafts’ maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) and takeoff distance is evaluated quantitatively in this study. The results show that the distribution of summer daily maximum temperature shifts obviously to higher temperature at all the chosen airports and the variation in temperature is larger at four airports (Jinan, Shanghai, Lhasa, and Urumqi) during 2071−2080 under the RCP8.5 scenario than that in the historical run (1991−2000). The warming air leads to the MTOW reducing and takeoff distance increasing. Taking the Boeing 737–800 aircraft as an illustration, the number of weight-restriction days increases significantly across the airports, which can influence airlines’ economic benefit and flight operations in the future. It is also found that the takeoff distance does not change linearly with temperature, but shows a stronger increase with higher temperature. The takeoff distance increases about 6.2% on average during 2071−2080 compared to 1991−2000 for the low-altitude airports, calling for an additional 113−222 m takeoff distance in future summers.

/pdf/decreased-aircraft-takeoff-performance-under-global-warming-43zssc7a.pdf

Decreased Aircraft Takeoff Performance under Global Warming

The variations in summer precipitation according to different grades and their effects on summer drought/flooding in the Haihe River basin were analyzed using the daily precipitation data from 161 meteorological stations from 1972 to 2021. The results showed that the number of rainy days (NRD) in summer in the Haihe River basin significantly declined in the past 50 years, mainly due to the reduction in the number of light-rain days. The precipitation amount (PA) exhibited prominent interdecadal characteristics, showing an upward tendency in the past 20 years accompanied by a remarkable increase in the proportion of torrential rain. The NRD in the northern part of the basin significantly decreased, while the PA in the southeast showed an increasing trend. Summer drought/flooding was strongly linked to the changes in the NRD and was predominantly affected by intense precipitation, with contribution rates of 5.5%, 16.8%, 31.2%, and 46.5% from light, moderate, heavy, and torrential rain, respectively. The effects of torrential rain increased in recent decades, particularly in the flooding scenarios. In addition, July was the critical period for summer drought/flooding, with the major influence of heavy and torrential rain. The most intense summer rainfall event in the Haihe River basin could contribute from 15% to 29% of total precipitation, resulting in changes in the severity and state of summer drought/flooding, which indicated that the precipitation process had a decisive impact on seasonal drought/flooding. Therefore, when predicting summer precipitation in the Haihe River basin, it is necessary to pay attention to the intense rainfall events during critical periods.

/pdf/variations-in-summer-precipitation-according-to-different-1xr53b5y.pdf

Variations in Summer Precipitation According to Different Grades and Their Effects on Summer Drought/Flooding in Haihe River Basin

The timing of the cessation of Meiyu is closely connected to the amount of Meiyu rainfall and the commencement of the rainy season in North China. Accurately forecasting the Meiyu withdrawal date (MWD) over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin (YHRB) has significant implications for the prevention and mitigation of flooding in eastern China. This study observed an intimate out-of-phase relationship between MWD variations and early spring (March and April) Arctic Sea ice area (SIA) anomalies to the north of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, as well as SIA anomalies to the north of the Queen Elizabeth Islands (75° N–82° N, 170° E–130° W and 82° N–86° N, 130° W–80° W, respectively) on the interannual timescale. As such, these can be considered key Arctic Sea ice domains connected to Meiyu cessation in the YHRB. The Arctic SIA anomalies in the key domains persist from early spring to early summer (May and June), thus exerting a lag modulation effect on year-to-year changes in Meiyu cessation, which can be demonstrated through observational analysis and results from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Numerical Simulation (CESM-LENS) project. Specifically, the preceding negative SIA anomalies in the key domains are linked to a planetary-scale Rossby wave-like pattern emanating over areas to the northwest of the Chukchi Sea. This tele-connected wave-like pattern is conducive to the generation and maintenance of a quasi-barotropic “north-low–south-high” meridional see-saw pattern over the East Asian–Western North Pacific sector in July, which is a pivotal circulation pattern responsible for delayed Meiyu termination. Furthermore, the situation is the opposite in response to increased sea ice in these key domains within the Arctic. This study proposes a significant cryospheric forcing indicator for Meiyu cessation over the YHRB, which may provide helpful information for operational forecasting of the withdrawal timing of the Meiyu over the YHRB.

/pdf/possible-impact-of-early-spring-arctic-sea-ice-on-meiyu-1waqrvgv.pdf

Possible Impact of Early Spring Arctic Sea Ice on Meiyu Cessation over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin

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Binary mesovortex structure associated with southwest vortex

Decreased Aircraft Takeoff Performance under Global Warming

Variations in Summer Precipitation According to Different Grades and Their Effects on Summer Drought/Flooding in Haihe River Basin

Possible Impact of Early Spring Arctic Sea Ice on Meiyu Cessation over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin