Convergence of Probability Measures. By P. Billingsley. Chichester, Sussex, Wiley, 1968. xii, 253 p. 9 1/4“. 117s.

Convergence of Probability Measures

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Convex Analysisの二,三の進展について

The author's preface gives an outline: "This book is about weakconvergence methods in metric spaces, with applications sufficient to show their power and utility. The Introduction motivates the definitions and indicates how the theory will yield solutions to problems arising outside it. Chapter 1 sets out the basic general theorems, which are then specialized in Chapter 2 to the space C[0, l ] of continuous functions on the unit interval and in Chapter 3 to the space D [0, 1 ] of functions with discontinuities of the first kind. The results of the first three chapters are used in Chapter 4 to derive a variety of limit theorems for dependent sequences of random variables. " The book develops and expands on Donsker's 1951 and 1952 papers on the invariance principle and empirical distributions. The basic random variables remain real-valued although, of course, measures on C[0, l ] and D[0, l ] are vitally used. Within this framework, there are various possibilities for a different and apparently better treatment of the material. More of the general theory of weak convergence of probabilities on separable metric spaces would be useful. Metrizability of the convergence is not brought up until late in the Appendix. The close relation of the Prokhorov metric and a metric for convergence in probability is (hence) not mentioned (see V. Strassen, Ann. Math. Statist. 36 (1965), 423-439; the reviewer, ibid. 39 (1968), 1563-1572). This relation would illuminate and organize such results as Theorems 4.1, 4.2 and 4.4 which give isolated, ad hoc connections between weak convergence of measures and nearness in probability. In the middle of p. 16, it should be noted that C*(S) consists of signed measures which need only be finitely additive if 5 is not compact. On p. 239, where the author twice speaks of separable subsets having nonmeasurable cardinal, he means "discrete" rather than "separable." Theorem 1.4 is Ulam's theorem that a Borel probability on a complete separable metric space is tight. Theorem 1 of Appendix 3 weakens completeness to topological completeness. After mentioning that probabilities on the rationals are tight, the author says it is an

Convergence of probability measures

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The theory of large deviations is concerned with the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random systems. These probabilities are important in many fields of study, including statistics, finance, and engineering, as they often yield valuable information about the large fluctuations of a random system around its most probable state or trajectory. In the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics, the theory of large deviations provides exponential-order estimates of probabilities that refine and generalize Einstein's theory of fluctuations. This review explores this and other connections between large deviation theory and statistical mechanics, in an effort to show that the mathematical language of statistical mechanics is the language of large deviation theory. The first part of the review presents the basics of large deviation theory, and works out many of its classical applications related to sums of random variables and Markov processes. The second part goes through many problems and results of statistical mechanics, and shows how these can be formulated and derived within the context of large deviation theory. The problems and results treated cover a wide range of physical systems, including equilibrium many-particle systems, noise-perturbed dynamics, nonequilibrium systems, as well as multifractals, disordered systems, and chaotic systems. This review also covers many fundamental aspects of statistical mechanics, such as the derivation of variational principles characterizing equilibrium and nonequilibrium states, the breaking of the Legendre transform for nonconcave entropies, and the characterization of nonequilibrium fluctuations through fluctuation relations.

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Let $p\in[1,\infty]$. Consider the projection of a uniform random vector from a suitably normalized $\ell^p$ ball in $\mathbb{R}^n$ onto an independent random vector from the unit sphere. We show that sequences of such random projections, when suitably normalized, satisfy a large deviation principle (LDP) as the dimension $n$ goes to $\infty$, which can be viewed as an annealed LDP. We also establish a quenched LDP (conditioned on a fixed sequence of projection directions) and show that for $p\in(1,\infty]$ (but not for $p=1$), the corresponding rate function is "universal", in the sense that it coincides for "almost every" sequence of projection directions. We also analyze some exceptional sequences of directions in the "measure zero" set, including the directions corresponding to the classical Cram\'er's theorem, and show that those directions yield LDPs with rate functions that are distinct from the universal rate function of the quenched LDP. Lastly, we identify a variational formula that relates the annealed and quenched LDPs, and analyze the minimizer of this variational formula. These large deviation results complement the central limit theorem for convex sets, specialized to the case of sequences of $\ell^p$ balls.

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We consider a particular Branching Random Walk in Random Environment (BRWRE) on $\sN_0$ started with one particle at the origin. Particles reproduce according to an offspring distribution (which depends on the location) and move either one step to the right (with a probability in $(0,1]$ which also depends on the location) or stay in the same place. We give criteria for local and global survival and show that global survival is equivalent to exponential growth of the moments. Further, on the event of survival the number of particles grows almost surely exponentially fast with the same growth rate as the moments.

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