Abstract The paper presents information on the projected drought exposure of Central Europe, describes the anticipated dynamics of the regional forests, and identifies measures facilitating the adaptation of forests to climate change-induced drought risk. On the basis of an ensemble of climate change scenarios we expect substantial drying in southern Slovakia and Hungary, while such trends were found to be less pronounced for the Czech Republic and Austria. In response to these climate trajectories, a change in species composition towards a higher share of drought tolerant species as well as the use of drought resistant provenances are identified as paramount actions in forest adaptation in the region. Adaptation to aggravating climate change may need to use artificial regeneration to enrich local gene pools and increase the drought tolerance of stands. Increasing risks from pests, pathogens and other disturbances are expected as a result of more frequent and severe droughts, underlining the need to put a stronger focus on risk management principles rather than on indicators of productivity in silviculture and forest planning. A consolidation of disturbance monitoring systems and a broader use of pest dynamics and hazard rating models are paramount tools to facilitate this adaptation process in forest management. The effectiveness of all the suggested measures needs to be controlled by efficient forest monitoring systems, the consolidation of which seems to be a timely task. Systematic and long-term implementation of the presented measures should increase forest stability and resilience, and further secure the sustainable provision of ecosystem services under climate change. Abstrakt V článku sú prezentované informácie o očakávanom vývoji sucha v oblasti strednej Európy, je opísaná možná dynamika lesov v podmienkach zmeny klímy, a je vypracovaný systém opatrení umožňujúcich adaptáciu lesov na zmenu klímy. Na základe kolekcie scenárov zmeny klímy bol identifikovaný výrazný nárast intenzity sucha v oblastiach južného Slovenska a Maďarska, zatiaľ čo v oblasti Českej republiky a Rakúska bola zmena relatívne nevýrazná. S ohľadom na tento vývoj predstavuje úprava drevinového zloženia smerom k vyššiemu zastúpeniu sucho tolerujúcich drevín a širšiemu využívaniu proveniencií rezistentných voči suchu jedno zo základných adaptačných opatrení. V prípade výrazných zmien klímy narastá význam umelej obnovy, ktorá predstavuje nástroj na zlepšovanie druhovej a genetickej diverzity porastov a zvyšovanie ich tolerancie voči suchu. Narastajúci vplyv škodcov súvisiaci s rastúcim vplyvom sucha a ďalších abiotických činiteľov naznačuje potrebu orientovať pestovanie a hospodársku úpravu lesa viac na manažment rizík ako na maximalizáciu produkcie. Konsolidácia systémov monitoringu škodlivých činiteľov a širšie využívanie modelov dynamiky škodcov a hodnotenia rizík patria medzi ďalšie dôležité opatrenia podporujúce adaptáciu lesov na zmenu klímy. Všetky uvedené opatrenia musia byť podporené informáciami získanými na základe dlhodobého monitoringu lesa, ktorý však vyžaduje urýchlenú konsolidáciu. Systematická a dlhodobá realizácia prezentovaných opatrení podporí stabilitu a rezilienciu lesov a vytvorí predpoklady pre udržateľné poskytovanie ekosystémových služieb a funkcií v podmienkach zmeny klímy.

Climate change increases the drought risk in Central European forests: What are the options for adaptation?

European forests under global climate change: Review of tree growth processes, crises and management strategies.

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests

© German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina, 2017. Published version Bäck, Jaana; Aszalós, Réka; Ceulemans, Reinhart J. M.; Glatzel, Gerhard; Hanewinkel, Marc; Kakaras, Emmanuel; Kotiaho, Janne Sakari; Lindroth, Anders; Lubica, Ditmarová; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Mackay, John; Marek, Michal V.; Morgante, Michele; Nabuurs, G.J.; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pais, Maria Salomé; Schaub, Marcus; Tahvonen, Olli; Vesala, Timo; Gillet, William; Norton, Michael; Altimir, Nuria

Multi-functionality and sustainability in the European Union's forests

The structure of forests is an important stabilizing factor regarding ongoing global climate and land use change. Biodiverse mountain forests with natural structure are one of the ecosystems most endangered by these problems. We focused on the mountain forest islands of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and their role in the natural distribution of organisms. The study area was situated in the oldest Czech national park, Krkonose (385 km2), which is the highest mountain ridge in the country. We studied multi-taxa (lichens, beetles and hymenopterans) responses to three hierarchical spatial levels of the environment: the topography was described by the elevation gradient; the patch structure was described by canopy openness, dead wood amounts, and Norway spruce (Picea abies) cover; and the tree level was described by species of the sampled tree and its diameter. Lichens preferred higher elevations, while insect groups responded conversely. Furthermore, insect groups were mainly influenced by the inner patch structure of beech islands. Lichens may be jeopardized due to the predicted future increase in temperatures, since they would need to shift toward higher altitudes. Insects may be mainly threatened in the future by land use changes (i.e., forest management) – as indicated by an interconnection of canopy openness and the amount of dead wood.

Biodiversity in remnants of natural mountain forests under conservation-oriented management.

We provide fundamental information about the future development of selected climate elements in relation to anticipated threat to forests in the Czech Republic. All analyses were carried out in relation to four elevation zones with specific potential forest vegetation - up to 350 m a.s.l. (oak dominance), 350-600 m a.s.l. (beech dominance), 600-900 m a.s.l. (beech-fir dominance), 900-1,100 m a.s.l. (spruce dominance). We found out that while the projected increase in mean annual air temperature is almost constant over the Czech Republic (+3.25-3.5°C in the distant future), the frequency of heat spells at lower elevations is expected to increase dramatically compared to higher elevations. The precipitation totals during the vegetation season are projected to increase in the near future by up to 10% and to decrease in the distant future by up to 10% over all vegetation zones. In general, drought is presumed to become a key limiting factor at lower elevations, while increased temperature along with the prolonged vegetation season at higher elevations can be beneficial to forest vegetation. Consequently, northward progression of forest tree species and retraction of the species lower distribution range are a generic response pattern. Such impacts are presumed to be accompanied by changes in the distribution and population dynamics of pests and pathogens. Mainly the impacts on two key forest pests, Ips typographus and Lymantria dispar, are discussed.

/pdf/expected-impacts-of-climate-change-on-forests-czech-republic-2t3u1ksbd0.pdf

Expected impacts of climate change on forests: Czech Republic as a case study

Atmospheric precipitation during cyclonic situations was analyzed using weather types classification. Based on data from the period 1991 to 2015, the observed cyclonic situations were analyzed in terms of their frequency of days with a given weather type. Cyclonic situations with airflow direction from the west and northwest, north and northeast, east and southeast, and south and southwest were analyzed. We identified a declining number of days that can be classified as cyclonic situations. The distributions of the mean annual precipitation totals for these cyclonic situations have been investigated. The highest mean annual precipitation totals occurred during the west cyclonic, northeast cyclonic, and east cyclonic weather types. The lowest mean annual precipitation totals were identified during the southwest cyclonic (with fronts moving from north to northeast) and north cyclonic weather types. The percentage of the individual cyclonic weather types and supertypes in the mean annual precipitation total was calculated. The directional supertype west + northwest with the west cyclonic type occurred with the highest percentage, although variations may arise due to windward and leeward effects.

Mean annual totals of precipitation during the period 1991–2015 with respect to cyclonic situations in Slovakia

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Expected impacts of climate change on forests: Czech Republic as a case study

Mean annual totals of precipitation during the period 1991–2015 with respect to cyclonic situations in Slovakia