A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models

Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions

Improving the efficiency and performance of the UK residential sector is now necessary for meeting future energy and climate change targets. Building performance evaluation and certification (BPEC) tools are vital for estimating and recommending cost effective improvements to building energy efficiency and lowering overall emissions. In the UK, building performance is estimated using the standard assessment procedure (SAP) for new dwellings and Reduced SAP (RdSAP) for existing dwellings. Using a systems based approach we show there are many opportunities for improving the effectiveness of BPEC tools. In particular, if the building stock is going to meet future energy and climate change targets the system driving building energy efficiency will need to become more efficient. In order to achieve this goal, building performance standards across Europe are compared highlighting the most effective strategies where they are found. It is shown that the large variance between estimated and actual energy performance from dwellings in the UK may be preventing the adoption of bottom-up energy efficiency measures. We show that despite popular belief, SAP and RdSAP do not estimate building energy efficiency but instead attempt to estimate the cost-effective performance of a building and thus create perverse incentives that may lead to additional CO2 emissions. In this regard, the SAP standard confounds cost-effectiveness, energy efficiency and environmental performance giving an inadequate estimate of all three policy objectives. Important contributions for improving measurement, analysis, synthesis and certification of building performance characteristics are offered.

Building performance evaluation and certification in the UK: Is SAP fit for purpose?

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.

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Modelling socio-technical transition patterns and pathways

Argentinean soy-based biodiesel: An introduction to production and impacts

There is evidence that the housing and community sector in the UK is unsustainable, in CO2 emissions, overuse of land and other resources, social and economic indicators such as a lack of good quality housing, and institutional problems of a conservative building system and a planning and regulatory system that is slow to respond to changing needs and demands. We review previous work on the housing and communities sector in the UK, showing it to be not only unsustainable, but to have the characteristics of a systemic, persistent problem. We then use the notion of systemic change or ‘transitions’ to analyse this sector and implement it as a case study using our previously developed transitions model. Our model results show that the landscape changes of climate change (perception) and rising fuel prices can in themselves lead to a 1/3 reduction in direct CO2 emissions from the residential sector in 2050 relative to 2000, despite countervailing demographic changes. Policies supporting renovation and demolition of inefficient housing and high quality new-build, combined with regulations and subsidies supporting actors who encourage low CO2 emission practices, increase emission reductions to nearly 1/2. However, if the present regime of property developers, housebuilders, and city planners remains unchanged, the CO2 reductions are greatly reduced. This is the case even if the business-as-usual agenda is altered to incorporate more energy efficient housing ideas, since the deeper structural changes needed for serious emission cuts are impeded. Policies supporting actors with good social sustainability practices improve indicators such as community strength and accessibility in 2050. These policies can also improve CO2 emission reduction through cuts to indirect household emissions, as social cohesion and mixed-use zoning encourage localism and reduce traffic.

Transition to sustainable development in the UK housing sector: From case study to model implementation

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Transition to sustainable development in the UK housing sector: From case study to model implementation