计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Further Simulation Evidence on the Performance of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the international poverty line. In order to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the World Bank’s twin goals, the new poverty line was chosen so as to preserve the definition and real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs) in poor countries. Using the new 2011 PPPs, the new line equals $1.90 per person per day. The higher value of the line in US dollars reflects the fact that the new PPPs yield a relatively lower purchasing power of that currency vis-a-vis those of most poor countries. Because the line was designed to preserve real purchasing power in poor countries, the revisions lead to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence: from 14.5 percent in the old method to 14.1 percent in the new method for 2011. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 percent of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents the detailed methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats, limitations, perils and pitfalls of the approach taken.

/pdf/a-global-count-of-the-extreme-poor-in-2012-data-issues-4vpe77xrke.pdf

A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues, methodology and initial results

Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class

This article discusses the likelihood-based estimation of panel data models with individual-specific effects and both lagged dependent variable regressors and additional predetermined explanatory variables. The resulting new estimator, labeled as subsystem limited information maximum likelihood (ssLIML), is asymptotically equivalent to standard panel generalized method of moment as N → ∞ for fixed T but tends to present smaller biases in finite samples as illustrated in simulation experiments. Simulation results also indicate that the estimator is preferred to other alternatives available in the literature in terms of finite-sample performance. Finally, to provide an empirical illustration, I revisit the evidence on the relationship between income and democracy in a panel of countries using the proposed estimator.

Likelihood-Based Estimation of Dynamic Panels With Predetermined Regressors

Substantial upward economic mobility in the majority of countries in Europe and Central Asia in the 2000s translated into achievements in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. Although factors associated with upward mobility vary significantly by country, education and jobs undoubtedly play an important role in lifting households out of poverty and helping them to improve their living standards. This study finds there is a puzzling mismatch between the objective economic mobility patterns observed in survey data and people's subjective perception of their mobility. A majority of people in the region perceives they are worse off economically than in the past and voice frustration over limited opportunities to improve their lives. This disconnect is partly explained by increased inequality in the region, an increasing sense of unfairness in the processes to move up, and a more marked sense of insecurity and vulnerability. Although the region has been making headway in lifting households out of poverty, ensuring sustainable progress toward poverty reduction and shared prosperity requires policies that promote human capital accumulation, foster job creation, and offer adequate protection to improve households' resilience to shocks.

/pdf/economic-mobility-in-europe-and-central-asia-exploring-4gm5g45kfw.pdf

Economic mobility in Europe and Central Asia : exploring patterns and uncovering puzzles

We study the employment and output effects of the short-time work (STW) policy in Germany between 2009 and 2010. This intervention facilitated reductions in hours worked per employee with the goal of preventing layoffs. Using confidential German micro-level data we estimate a search model with heterogeneous multi-worker firms as a basis for policy analysis. Our findings suggest that STW can prevent increases in unemployment during a recession. However, the policy leads to a decrease in the allocative efficiency of the labor market, resulting in significant output losses. These effects arise from a reduction in the vacancy filling rate resulting from the policy intervention.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23688/w23688.pdf

The Employment and Output Effects of Short-Time Work in Germany

During the early 2000s, Moldova experienced strong economic growth and poverty and inequality reductions. This paper aims at uncovering the patterns behind these poverty trends by looking at economic mobility and its associated factors in Moldova. The findings build on the synthetic panel approach and allow for a non-anonymous view of the process of poverty reduction. The data used for this country study on Moldova come from the Household Budget Survey, which is conducted on a yearly basis. The paper presents transition matrices to look at the patterns of economic mobility across selected consumption thresholds, as well as descriptive statistics and a linear probability model aimed at identifying correlates of economic mobility. The findings show that the observed poverty reductions happened with little churning, and highlight the importance of education and employment on upward economic mobility in Moldova in the 2000s, as well as the role of public and private transfers.

/pdf/moldova-a-story-of-upward-economic-mobility-41h31e7qws.pdf

Moldova : A Story of Upward Economic Mobility

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of economic and social mobility in countries in the South Caucasus by complementing available household survey data in each of the countries in the subregion with other sources, such as the Life in Transition Survey (2016) The first part of the paper -- concentrated on intragenerational mobility -- finds that despite progress made in reducing poverty over the past decade, there appears to be a significant amount of churning around the poverty line Moreover, in Georgia and Armenia, roughly one in eight individuals lived in a state of chronic poverty in 2015, and in the case of Georgia, chronic poverty is not an exclusive phenomenon for rural areas In addition, although social programs have provided a lifeline for the chronic poor, the ability to tap into labor market opportunities has been the ticket out of poverty The second part of the paper expands the analysis to intergenerational or social mobility The main findings are that (1) a higher proportion of the population in this subregion considers their pre-transition family life and the lives of their parents when they were of similar age as appropriate benchmarks to evaluate their current economic situations in comparison with the other transition countries, and (2) over half of the Georgian and Armenian population disagreed with the statement that asked their views on having a better in life than their parents, aligning with the “growing but unhappy” trend that has been reported for the region

/pdf/south-caucasus-in-motion-economic-and-social-mobility-in-3ivp9fo3fs.pdf

South Caucasus in motion : economic and social mobility in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

Globalization features one of the major global trends which shape economic outcomes in developing and developed countries. Standard results from the empirical growth literature suggest that participation in worldwide trade is an important determinant of economic growth. In contrast to previous findings, this paper argues that not only the level of openness matters (trade intensity), but the degree of integration of an economy into the global trade network is even more important for the growth performance of an economy. The new measure of integration captures the network position of an economy and takes into consideration higher order links between economies in the global trade network. First, the theoretical framework of this paper makes use of social network theory to characterize a measure of economic integration. We employ the well-established concept of centrality and construct alternative measures to describe patterns of economic globalization. Second, we make use of a unique data set constructed from the UN Comtrade database and exploit a wide set of bilateral import and export flows to characterize the country’s participation in worldwide trade. Third, the identification strategy takes into account the dynamic panel structure of our data to disentangle the impact of economic integration on economic growth. Our results build on the difference and system generalized method of moments and the limited information maximum likelihood method. We take into consideration possible problems of endogeneity and lagged variables in the dynamic panel framework. The empirical analysis highlights the importance of openness and especially integration to fully understand the economic growth performance in a between and within country perspective. Controlling for the standard set of independent variables in the empirical growth literature and using different robustness checks, we find a significantly positive effect of integration on economic growth.

Being Close to Grow Faster: A network-based empirical analysis of economic globalization

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