Objective To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease. Design Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group. Data sources PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020. Study selection Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. Data extraction At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). Results 37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models. Conclusion Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. Systematic review registration Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245. Readers’ note This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1328.full.pdf

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal

Explainable Deep Learning for Pulmonary Disease and Coronavirus COVID-19 Detection from X-rays.

Segmentation of pneumonia lesions from CT scans of COVID-19 patients is important for accurate diagnosis and follow-up. Deep learning has a potential to automate this task but requires a large set of high-quality annotations that are difficult to collect. Learning from noisy training labels that are easier to obtain has a potential to alleviate this problem. To this end, we propose a novel noise-robust framework to learn from noisy labels for the segmentation task. We first introduce a noise-robust Dice loss that is a generalization of Dice loss for segmentation and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) loss for robustness against noise, then propose a novel COVID-19 Pneumonia Lesion segmentation network (COPLE-Net) to better deal with the lesions with various scales and appearances. The noise-robust Dice loss and COPLE-Net are combined with an adaptive self-ensembling framework for training, where an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of a student model is used as a teacher model that is adaptively updated by suppressing the contribution of the student to EMA when the student has a large training loss. The student model is also adaptive by learning from the teacher only when the teacher outperforms the student. Experimental results showed that: (1) our noise-robust Dice loss outperforms existing noise-robust loss functions, (2) the proposed COPLE-Net achieves higher performance than state-of-the-art image segmentation networks, and (3) our framework with adaptive self-ensembling significantly outperforms a standard training process and surpasses other noise-robust training approaches in the scenario of learning from noisy labels for COVID-19 pneumonia lesion segmentation.

/pdf/a-noise-robust-framework-for-automatic-segmentation-of-covid-35dgpcbdzf.pdf

A Noise-Robust Framework for Automatic Segmentation of COVID-19 Pneumonia Lesions From CT Images

Detecting COVID-19 early may help in devising an appropriate treatment plan and disease containment decisions. In this study, we demonstrate how transfer learning from deep learning models can be used to perform COVID-19 detection using images from three most commonly used medical imaging modes X-Ray, Ultrasound, and CT scan. The aim is to provide over-stressed medical professionals a second pair of eyes through intelligent deep learning image classification models. We identify a suitable Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model through initial comparative study of several popular CNN models. We then optimize the selected VGG19 model for the image modalities to show how the models can be used for the highly scarce and challenging COVID-19 datasets. We highlight the challenges (including dataset size and quality) in utilizing current publicly available COVID-19 datasets for developing useful deep learning models and how it adversely impacts the trainability of complex models. We also propose an image pre-processing stage to create a trustworthy image dataset for developing and testing the deep learning models. The new approach is aimed to reduce unwanted noise from the images so that deep learning models can focus on detecting diseases with specific features from them. Our results indicate that Ultrasound images provide superior detection accuracy compared to X-Ray and CT scans. The experimental results highlight that with limited data, most of the deeper networks struggle to train well and provides less consistency over the three imaging modes we are using. The selected VGG19 model, which is then extensively tuned with appropriate parameters, performs in considerable levels of COVID-19 detection against pneumonia or normal for all three lung image modes with the precision of up to 86% for X-Ray, 100% for Ultrasound and 84% for CT scans.

/pdf/covid-19-detection-through-transfer-learning-using-3jkti8jq1q.pdf

COVID-19 Detection through Transfer Learning Using Multimodal Imaging Data

Deep Learning and Medical Image Processing for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: A Survey.

Computed tomography (CT) is the preferred imaging method for diagnosing 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID19) pneumonia. We aimed to construct a system based on deep learning for detecting COVID-19 pneumonia on high resolution CT. For model development and validation, 46,096 anonymous images from 106 admitted patients, including 51 patients of laboratory confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia and 55 control patients of other diseases in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were retrospectively collected. Twenty-seven prospective consecutive patients in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University were collected to evaluate the efficiency of radiologists against 2019-CoV pneumonia with that of the model. An external test was conducted in Qianjiang Central Hospital to estimate the system’s robustness. The model achieved a per-patient accuracy of 95.24% and a per-image accuracy of 98.85% in internal retrospective dataset. For 27 internal prospective patients, the system achieved a comparable performance to that of expert radiologist. In external dataset, it achieved an accuracy of 96%. With the assistance of the model, the reading time of radiologists was greatly decreased by 65%. The deep learning model showed a comparable performance with expert radiologist, and greatly improved the efficiency of radiologists in clinical practice.

/pdf/deep-learning-based-model-for-detecting-2019-novel-5gajrwfmdy.pdf

Deep learning-based model for detecting 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia on high-resolution computed tomography

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Deep learning-based model for detecting 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia on high-resolution computed tomography