We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.

/pdf/climate-change-and-violent-conflict-in-europe-over-the-last-25vn0xmbzf.pdf

Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

The economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate. Both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions. It is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant, but it is not If we assume that a C02-equivalent doubling implies costs equal to 1.5% of the income in both high and low income countries, a pure rate of time preference equal to zero, and a utility function which is logarithmic in income, then the marginal cost of C02 emissions is estimated at 260-590 USD/ton C for a time horizon in the range 300-1000 years, an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of C02 emissions on purely economic grounds. The estimate is approximately 50-100-times larger than the estimate made by Nordhaus in his DICE model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle. Finally, the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed.

Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming

Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. The assumed scenario is important too, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. Because of this, variations in the assumed inequity aversion have little effect on the marginal damage cost in some scenarios, and a large effect in other scenarios.

/pdf/equity-weighting-and-the-marginal-damage-costs-of-climate-50cbysx84k.pdf

Equity Weighting and the Marginal Damage Costs of Climate Change

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: A simulation study

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/68021/1/527775355.pdf

The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers

This paper discusses methodological aspects of recent climate change damage studies. Assessing the total and/or marginal damage costs of environmental change is often difficult and it is certainly difficult in the case of climate change. A major obstacle is the uncertainty on the physical impacts of climate change, especially related to extreme events and so-called 'low-probability high-impact' scenarios. The subsequent transposition of physical impacts into monetary terms is also a delicate step, given that climate change impacts involve both market and non-market goods and services, covering health, environmental and social values, and that impacts may be distant in time and space. The complexity of climate change cost assessment thus involves several crucial dimensions, including non-market evaluation, risk and uncertainty, baseline definition, equity and discounting. The paper discusses these issues and stresses the importance of political perspectives in integrated assessment research.

/pdf/methodological-aspects-of-recent-climate-change-damage-cost-33jw34fvzq.pdf

Methodological aspects of recent climate change damage cost studies

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Methodological aspects of recent climate change damage cost studies